The Election Risk - Blue Wave or Red Wave - the markets are going into this all one one side of the boat and that to me suggests that after the next 48 hours of mayhem, the risk is potentially the opposite (nothing to do with who wins).
Everyone is ALL in on reflation..
Everyone is ALL in on reflation..
The short position in 10 year bonds is 4 standard deviations from trend (not adjusted for OI, but still record short by any measure). 
Speculators are near record short the US dollar....
They are record long the Euro...
But in % of OI terms, there is a thrust higher in positioning and that has always led to a higher dollar in this bull market.
And in equities, hedge funds are also record long....
The contrarian in me is suggesting if everyone is expecting the same outcome then the odds of that outcome playing out as expected, are lower.
Be a little careful out there. It might be a wild 48 hours or maybe 48 days.
Be a little careful out there. It might be a wild 48 hours or maybe 48 days.
*this is 30 year bonds. Sorry, its early!
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