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Raoul Pal

27 Oct, 12 tweets, 4 min read

Bitcoin is eating the world...

It has become a supermassive black hole that is sucking in everything around it and destroying it. This narrative is only going to grow over the next 18 months.

You see, gold is breaking down versus bitcoin...and gold investors will flip to BTC

And the Nasdaq is next... retail specs are going to flip to bitcoin as it eats techs lunch...

It has already destroyed the banks... they are now at their all time low versus our digital currency hero...

Bonds - one of my favourite trades for years... dead in the water versus the super hero of all assets...

Commodities... in the rear view mirror and heading towards ALL-TIME lows...

G4 Central Bank Balance sheet - the other super power... still just about outperforming in last 2 years but about to lose the fight to bitcoin...

Silver - fugeddaboutit

Amazing Amazon... nope...bitcoin is going it eats performance for breakfast...

Apple? Nope.

Bitcoin's performance is SO dominant and SO all-encompassing that it is going to suck in every single asset narrative dry and spit it out.

Never before in my career have I see a trade so dominant that holding any other assets makes almost no sense.

The macro, flows, technology, demography and societal strains have all converged to this moment in time and the definite answer from markets is - #bitcoin

I get this sounds a little evangelical but Im struggling to see it any other way right now.

The supermassive black hole is going to suck in everything.

Again, this is there best trade/investment and future opportunity I have EVER found and it has the power to give the little guy a chance to grab their share of the wealth creation before Wall Street does. Grab it.

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

28 Oct

Suddenly, everything changed... here is some thinking from my last GMI (Global Macro Investor) report:

I think we have now clearly started the transition from Hope phase to Insolvency phase (as per my Unfolding video and this update):

The big rise of the Covid in Europe, the US and Canada is about to exert economic pressures and extinguish the Hope phase of reflation dreams. Growth will not yet recover and a true economic recovery will take more than a post-election stimulus in Jan.

Read 16 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

22 Oct

Because life is not just about bitcoin, here are some bond charts to make you think.

I have used the 2001/2 chart versus current since Spring of last year and they helped me nail all of the moves in bonds.

Past performance is no guarantee but I still like these, a lot.

Here are 10 yr yields versus 2001/2, its time for yields to fall.

And due to the fact that the correction this time looks less on chart due to scale, here is the zoomed in version.

Read 6 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

18 Oct

Important Thread:

If you don't think Central Bank Digital Currencies are coming, you are missing the big and important picture. This is going to be the biggest overhaul of the global financial system since Bretton Woods.

Talking of Bretton Woods, this IMF article alludes to a huge change coming but lacks real clarity outside of allowing much more fiscal stimulus via monetary mechanisms.

imf.org/en/News/Articl…

And tomorrow, the IMF holds a conference on digital currencies and cross-border payment systems..

meetings.imf.org/en/2020/Annual…

Read 26 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

15 Oct

The V-shaped recovery in Europe? Well, the EU yield curve is about to go negative...

And everyone is very, very long the Euro....Ruh Roh, alligator jaws alert!

And thats bad news bears for the European banks...

Read 5 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

29 Sep

@RealVision

I do sometimes marvel with pride at what've been built with @RealVision and where its all going. Big plans a foot, as ever.

I mean on what other media in the world do you get this:

@hendry_hugh

A shirtless @hendry_hugh in an alley beside his house, in St Barth, eating lunch (messily) while interviewing a less well-known but absolutely legendary bond trader.

And at the same time creating on screen magic

A smart, engaging, funny, intellectual, authentic conversation where everyone goes down the deep learning journey with Hugh.

This is a million miles from what anyone else is doing in financial media.

Read 17 tweets

Raoul Pal

@RaoulGMI

21 Sep

Well, it's that time again to talk about the Spanish banks (I could talk about all banks in Europe but I'll choose Spain since I know it better and they are the worst).

The Spanish summer of tourist revenues was cut short and was very bad over all. The window of opportunity to

rebuild cash flows for business and households has passed. COVID complications will cause more economic pain and The Insolvency will become prevalent over the autumn and winter.

Last week the EU gave $73bn in help for the EU banks but that failed - they are down 14% since then.

But in Spain... yikes. Banco Sabadell is about to break key support

Read 9 tweets

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