Signing off until I absolutely have to be back on this evening, but wanted to take a moment to shout out a few folks who've been indispensible the past few months (thread 1/x):

@JMilesColeman, @NilesGApol, @SenhorRaposa, whose maps and insights have been so helpful...
.@grace_panetta, @baseballot, @JessicaHuseman, and @geoffreyvs for owning the voting beat and providing clarity on the Byzantine mechanics of voting and election administration...

@ZachMontellaro for never missing an FEC report, @daveweigel for never losing sight of Waukesha Co.
.@coleleiter, @ChrisPack716, @M_McAdams, @caitleg, @zhunterDC, @laurenvpass, @rachelgirwin, @jackpandol and @JJHunt10 for not ignoring my calls and emails even when I just want to ask what the odds of a Democratic upset in South Dakota are...
...the INCREDIBLE work at @DKElections, one of the single most useful resources I refer to every single day, so thank you @PoliticsWolf, @DarthJeff90, and @DavidNir and your whole team for the seemingly endless amount of data you've made so accessible...
...and of course @adamplevy for all his mentorship and guidance over the last 2.5 years, @nathanlgonzales for hiring me, @StuPolitics for starting this publication and @leahaskarinam for making two decisions in 2019 that allowed me to end up where I am today.
Many others as well, but I hate Twitter threads and want to get outside for a bit before hunkering down tonight.

A part of me still thinks it's March, but it's Election Day!

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More from @JacobRubashkin

5 Nov
A brief thread on Georgia runoff elections -- may have something much longer on all this in next issue but wanted to get some thoughts down (thread 1/x):

Georgia is the only state where general elections for federal office are subject to an absolute majority requirement.
If no candidate receives 50%+1 votes, the top-two vote getters advance to a January 5 runoff. This year, there will be at least one Senate runoff in Georgia, in the special election to replace Sen. Isakson. Democrat Raphael Warnock won 33% of the vote, Sen. Loeffler 26%.
There may also be a runoff in the regular US Senate election, where Sen. David Perdue is in danger of falling below 50% and being forced into a runoff with Democrat Jon Ossoff.

The two elections would happen simultaneously.

This system has been in place since the mid-1960s.
Read 19 tweets
21 Sep
Now here's an ad for you: Sen. Kelly Loeffler's new spot is all about how she's "more conservative than Attila the Hun," and includes an actor portraying a grunting Attila who delivers orders to, among other things, "eliminate the liberal scribes."
Again, this is the senator whose initial appointment last year was greeted with much punditry about how she'd appeal to moderate women in the Atlanta suburbs who were drifting away from the GOP and turning Georgia purple.

Now she's comparing herself favorably to Attila the Hun.
It underscores what a missed opportunity the special election could be for Democrats. Collins and Loeffler are both running so far to the right, there's a whole swath of potential voters in the middle up for grabs. If Stacey Abrams had run and cleared the Democratic field...
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Just a boatload of new Senate polls from AARP done by a mix of Democratic and GOP firms, showing tight races up and down the ticket.

(In Georgia's special, Loeffler is at 24%, Collins is at 20%, Warnock is at 19%, and Lieberman is at 10%)
What I take away from this is just how many nailbiters there might be on election night. This is 9 races all within 5 points! (And it doesn't include KS, SC, AK, TX, which could also be close)

For comparison, in 2018 there were 6 races decided ≤5 (FL, AZ, TX, WV, MT, NV).
In 2016, there were 5 races decided by 5 points or less (NH, PA, NV, MO, WI)
In 2014 there were 5 (VA, NC, CO, AK, NH)
In 2012 there were 4 (ND, NV, AZ, MT)
In 2010 there were 6 (IL, CO, PA, AK, WA, WI)
In 2008 there were 4 (MI, AK, OR, GA)
In 2006 there were 4 (VA, MT, MO, TN)
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
New poll of TEXAS from UT Tyler/ Dallas Morning News:

TRUMP 43
BIDEN 48

Dem Senate Primary
Hegar 35
West 22
Undecided 32

(June 29-July 7, 1,677 LVs, bilingual mixed mode, MoE 3.4%)

Largest Texas Biden lead I’ve seen so far.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712…
In the Senate, Cornyn leads Hegar by 13, 42-29, and West by 15, 43-28. But it's not all rosy for him.

He's not overperforming Trump at all; they're both at 43. If Biden is really winning Texas, Cornyn will need to overperform Trump to pull this one out.
Meanwhile, Hegar and West's numbers suffer from lack of Dem consolidation. They get just 62% and 55% of Democratic support, respectively. Expect that number to rise significantly after the primary is over. Hegar also ties Cornyn support among independents, a good sign for her.
Read 5 tweets

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