A term for #ElectionNight: "Dummymander" - a gerrymander that fails because of demographic or political changes (or both) not expected by the mapdrawer, something we're likely to see a fair bit of tonight in places like Texas. #txlege#fairmaps#Election2020
To be clear, this decade's TX gerrymander was pretty durable, successfully locking out Ds for most of the decade after 2011. But Texas is growing so fast & becoming more diverse so fast, it started failing in 2018. #txlege#fairmaps#Election2020
In the TX House, Rs drew a map to try to lock in a supermajority of 101 seats, which required spreading R voters among a lot of districts. Now, there's a good chance they will lose control of the chamber as a result of demographic & political shifts. #txlege#Election2020
On the congressional side, the big Texas gerrymander was to split Austin into six districts - and as heavily Democratic Austin has grown, that‘s meant a lot of the districts that touch it are suddenly competitive. #txlege#Election2020
In retrospect, creating an Austin-anchored district like Ds wanted would have been a better R move from the perspective of 2020. #txlege#Election2020
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A look at Texas turnout by county crossed against the number of registered voters. The suburban counties clearly show up as rocking it this year & there is also strong performance in the big urban counties. But a lot of variation for smaller counties. #txlege#Election2020
Oh, the outlier with super high turnout? That's McCulloch Co. in the Edwards Plateau, which the Texas SoS has at 92.5% turnout (not sure if that is a data error or if they are just really pumped). #txlege#Election2020
The state's lowest turnout as of the end of early voting is Hudspeth Co. in West Texas near El Paso, where just 26.8% of voters have voted. #txlege#Election2020
🚨💥🚨💥The 9.7 million votes cast in Texas so far are the most in any Texas election in history - and 743k more than the 8.97 million votes cast by Texans in 2016 (when the final turnout was 59.4%).
A revised thread 🧵 with a few thoughts on where Texas turnout could end up. I now think the most likely number is somewhere between 11.3 million and 11.6 million. But it still could be higher. Here’s my thinking. #txlege#Election2020 1/
Right now, my guess is that when polls close today, the Texas early vote will be about 9.6 million, of which about 7.74 million (81%) will be in the big 30 counties, with about 1.86 million votes from the smaller 224 counties. #txlege#Election2020 2/
In 2016, the Election Day vote in the big 30 counties was 29% of the early vote. In 2018, it was 35%.
But this year, of course, is different, both because of the pandemic & because voter energy, so my guess is that the E-Day vote is a fair bit smaller. #txlege#Election2020 3/
Here's how Texas turnout in the big counties looks on a percentage basis compared to prior cycles - with one more (traditionally big) day of early voting left + Election Day. #txlege#Election2020
So, the Texas Secretary of State put out an updated turnout report yesterday evening *reducing* Texas turnout through Wed by 293,488 to 8,231,936 (it had been reporting 8,575,424). #txlege#Election2020 1/
That revision pushes Texas turnout back to 48.6% (the SoS had been reporting 50.3%).
From my look at the numbers, Montgomery Co’s numbers for Wed dropped by about 30k and Travis Co’s numbers by 20k. Brazos Co went up 4690. #txlege#Election2020 2/
Other than that there were minor additions and subtractions in other counties, so most of the adjustment appears to have been in earlier days. #txlege#Election2020 3/
Today is the 100th anniversary of the detonation of a bomb on Wall Street that killed 38 people & injured hundreds others. The perpetrators were never found, but the bombing would have both immediate & long consequences. 1/
For one thing, the bombing also would prove to be a boon to the career of an ambitious young FBI agent named J. Edgar Hoover, who at the time headed the DOJ’s so-called Radical Division. 2/
The bombing also would play into the anti-immigrant mood of the nation because almost immediately the search for a suspect turned to immigrants - Italian anarchists in particular but in the wake of the Russian Revolution also Jewish & other eastern European immigrants. 3/