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Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
@JonPaula
Nov 3, 2020 • 111 tweets • 33 min read • Read on X
The first #Election2020 polls close in a few minutes, so here's my official electoral map prediction.

Let's see how I do... Image
Arizona looks good!

North Carolina is a nail-bitter.

I know Bluer-votes in rust belt will be delayed... but their early returns are no less stressful.

Florida looks to be a 5+ point swing in Trump's favor 😰

Pleased my state is holding Blue.

#ElectionNight
How is everyoney holding up?

Where and how (if at all) are you following #ElectionNight coverage?
This #RedMirage is terrifying!
There is math that suggests Trump could be leading by 20 points in Pennsylvania tonight, and still LOSE the Commonwealth after the disproportionately Democrat early-votes are counted later in the week.

Don't lose hope!

#Election2020
Excellent news for Biden (if it holds!)... but remember,

IT AIN'T OVER 'TIL IT'S OVER.
Michigan is definitely WAY closer than I would have liked - but with another 7% left, I predict Biden's current 4,000 (!) vote lead will only widen. Almost certainly going to a recount though. Image
If this margin holds, it's yet another MASSIVE polling error - off by some 7+ points! Exactly as many of us feared.

Biden can't afford any big polling 'flips' like this in other states. Although it's still possible for him to win without PA. Image
Using @FiveThirtyEight's Forecast Simulator, I "picked" all the states and districts that have been already called.

The resulting map has Biden with a 97% chance of winning.

Don't lose hope! Image
The moral victory may be lost... but the political war wages on!
If existing trends continue, Maine splits, and Trump keeps PA (I still think Biden eventually pulls out a win in Philadelphia) - this 270 vs. 268 electoral map is very possible.

And it'll be #Omaha that saved us all 😯 Image
Biden trails in GA by ~75k - 100k votes with nearly 350k+ left to count, in largely Dem areas.

That state will be close! Come on, Atlanta!
Win or lose, it looks like Trump will have GAINED 4+ million votes from his 2016 total.

After every illegal thing he did, and every Covid precaution he didn't do - that represents a staggering number of selfish, racist-enabling morons who ignored it all to help their 401k 😡
I've been looking at so many #ElectoralCollege maps today I could probably sub-in for @JohnKingCNN on a few minutes notice... 🤣
Thanks, I'd like to think I'd rise to the occasion.

I only have about 20 years experience in front of a camera... 😁
That's the idea! And you're very welcome.
Shit 😟
Damn.

This is what's at stake!
The math isn't there.

Trump will win #NorthCarolina by ~30,000 votes.
Expected, but no less huge!
Utilizing @politico's excellent "Ways Left To Win" simulator, this is how I see the current state of #Election2020.

I'm giving Joe Michigan, as I don't see that flipping. Which gives Trump only ONE path to victory: run the table.

politico.com/2020-election/… Image
Something that's been lost in the shuffle today?

Joe Biden has received more votes than any President in American history! 70,000,000 and counting😁
Any one know when Nevada will update their vote count? They haven't released new totals since this morning.

If they can call that tonight, we may know who the next President is before going to sleep.

#ElectionNight
🤣
This 💯

@FiveThirtyEight has been my go-to for months. Florida and Michigan were hugely off, but by-and-large they nailed their predictions.
This has been ALL Republican pundits.

Last week they were foolishly suggesting only lefties would freak out, but they'd calmly and politely accept the outcome and move on.

A bunch of little bitches, all of them.
.@NBCNews is now reporting that Nevada's next batch of vote totals won't be released until 9am PST.

Georgia *might* be called well after midnight, but realistically I think we can all go to bed early tonight.

No one is going to be elected President until tomorrow.
You absolutely love to see it. 😊
#Election2020 enters its third day!😰

We will (hopefully) be seeing new results from Nevada around 10am local time, and updates on the tightening races in Pennsylvania and Georgia throughout the day.

All Trump can do is bitch and moan...
Republicans love to use a single unverified video of one person's unsubstantiated complaint as evidence the entire vote is fraudulent... but every single cop that murders a minority isn't systemic racism, it's "a bad apple."

They argue in bad faith and lack intelligence.
Honest question:

Once it is CLEAR that Biden has 270, will Trump ever concede this election?
The only thing I'm getting from this Clark County presser is that Nevada is vastly under-prepared for this.

Those waiting for Nevada to end this today (like me) will have to keep waiting. Could be Saturday or next Thursday before their state can be called. 😠
I'm growing very tired of this "unity" bullshit. Republicans would NEVER attempt to extend an olive branch. But now, after they've lost the popular vote for the 7th time in the last 8 elections they expect us to?

Fuck 'em. Sit down, and shut the fuck up.

And if they don't like it?

mOvE tO aNoThEr CoUnTrY, and go cry some more! ❄️
Exactly.

Gaslight. Obstruct. Project.
Yup!
Solid (and hopeful) thread, but I'm not so sure the country will heal so easily...
Brilliant indictment of Trump by the always excellent @andersoncooper

This is a bridge too far!
I guess I can stay up another 90 minutes... ugh.
Calling it now: the Senate run-off will be the most expensive and contentious non-national election in history.

They'll literally spend a billion dollars.
Like I said, they operate in bad faith and lack intelligence.
One map. One man. Who you going with?
Seems that Biden may overtake Trump in Pennsylvania sometime during the early-morning hours.

Still seems unlikely they'll call the election at 3am though, so I'm off to bed! See y'all back here for *checks calendar* day 4. 🤣
It's probably safer that way.
👏👏👏

Absolutely must-watch.
Yes. I believe it.
Very possible #Election2020 is called today.
That. Is. The. Ballgame! 🥳

TV question! (Cc: @BenMakesTV)

Why does @nbc still tape @3rdHourTODAY if the entire program is preempted by their colleagues in the other room doing #Election2020 coverage?

Apparently, @alroker announced he has prostate cancer 😢 and I only know because of a tweet...
That's "Senator Astronaut," to you.

The the man, the myth, the legend @SteveKornacki reporting now that another 30,000+ votes were just released in Nevada that went 68% to Biden, doubling his lead to ~22k.

Victory is all but assured!
17% of you are EXTREMELY optimistic.

Perhaps my phrasing was unclear: but if you truly think Trump will make a concession *speech*, and admit he lost? I have bridge to sell you 🤣

Fantastic.

🎵 Dance band on the Titanic sing "Nearer, my God, to Thee." 🎵
At this point, Biden should just declare victory (Trump already did) so we can all move on with our lives.

"If the networks won't call it, I will! My name is Joe Biden and I'm your next President."

... Well, I can dream, can't I? 🤣
Guys... Biden's speech was so calm, collected and Presidential that I literally fell asleep for a couple minutes in the middle.

Sure, I've barely slept 15 hours all week... but listening to him talk didn't fill me with dread, it relaxed me to sleep 😊

I missed that.
I love the portals scene 😄
Thought it would have been closer, honestly!

They're both great 👍
The shitheel in chief is having morning... 😅 Image
FINALLY! 🥳😁
Please send me all of the Trump memes today. Please and thank you. 🤣
Sir, this is a Wendy's. Image
Fuck your feelings. 🤣

Check. The. Date. 😎

#CalledIt

Dunking on Trumper losers like @KMCRadio (who just blocked me yesterday for questioning his 'fraud' conspiracies) is gonna be so much fun this week!

Please share any links or screenshots of these gullible cultists getting their predictions hilariously wrong. NM is a toss-up?! 🤣 Image
Ya'll called this one correct!

All October I had a feeling it'd be Pennsylvania... sometime at the end of the week. Totally stressful it took this long, but somewhat expected.

In terms of "hilariously bad predictions", the #HelmutNorpothModel was sooooo wrong. 😂

And check the replies on this for some extra embarrassment. Such misplaced confidence.

Going off the color/shading (and not margin of error), in the end, @FiveThirtyEight nailed 48 out of 50 states.

THE POLLS WERE RIGHT! Many were just too paranoid to trust them. Image
Better late than never, haha.

bUt wHeRe'S tHe EnThusIaSm FoR bIdEn?!?

Right now, ten thousand Americans are celebrating the first black and female Vice President in #BlackLivesMatter Plaza.

What a day 😎👍
Oopsie! 🤣
Losers!
"Republicans accept elections." ???

That's fucking rich! 😂😂
Another poll result! This one from March.

I had this thing clocked from the jump, but it seems a majority of you were more pessimistic 🤷‍♂️
.@FiveThirtyEight's aggregate of polls did an excellent (if inexact) job at predicting this tumultuous election, but boy... some of the individual state polls really missed.

Biden by 11 points in Pennsylvania? If only! We'd have finished five days ago.
💯 this
"We Take Care Of Our Own"

Great song choice!
Democrats have the best music, and it isn't even close.

If Trump won we'd be listening to Ted Nugent on loop.
It's a wonderful relief.
To the small portion of women who follow me... can you share what this speech meant to you?

I'm a white man, and represented *everywhere*. I genuinely cannot relate to the emotions you must be experiencing watching the first woman VP-elect.

But I'm a proud #GirlDad tonight.
🤣
The Week Of Anxiety has given way to Schadenfreude Weekend. 😁
This is unreal. 🤣🤣

#SchadenfreudeWeekend continues!
He is conman. Always has been.

If this is news to you, that's because you were the mark.
This man has followers? He's clearly a psychopath.

What a fucking loser. 🤣
This is honestly beautiful.

And with that, Arizona has been CALLED for President-Elect Biden! Come on, Georgia :-)

Jim Cramer had his buddies on CNBC are tripping over themselves to avoid attributing any of this good stock market news to Biden's win.

Come on guys... dude be so obtuse.

Wow. This straight-to-camera, "please wear a mask" plea from the President-Elect is so refreshing.

Earnest, and effective! This is leadership! He may not have been a great candidate, but I truly believe he'll be a great President.
They still haven't called Alaska yet.

Have any new votes arrived all week? Are they delivering them by dogsled? There's barely 750,000 Americans up there, and everyone knows they love Trump, so just shade it RED already! 🤦‍♂️
The aforementioned "wear a mask" speech from Biden. Worth-watching.

Still funny 🤣
But the "allegations" are coming from Trump himself 🤦‍♂️
"This is not a close race." 👍

Oh look! Actual election fraud!
So deeply pathetic. But what else is new?

Yeah, but NBC is part of the "lamestream media" so how can we trust them?! 🙃

The Right's CONSTANT allegations of widespread voter fraud are so incredibly thin and sad. They're just completely detached from reality.
It's finally official...er. 😁
It's funny - @FoxNews's premature call of Arizona on Election night is the only reason I got any sleep that Tuesday. I always knew Biden would win... but seeing that call early definitely put my mind at ease.

But now real networks have called it! Haha.

Trump officially takes North Carolina.

(I called this over a week ago, as the math never worked for Biden, but apparently no one else can use a calculator?)

Plus, Biden holds onto Georgia as the "apparent" winner! My map looks pretty good.

At the start of this weeks-long #Election2020 thread, I shared my predictions on how all 50 states and split-districts would go. This was based almost entirely on @FiveThirtyEight's excellent polling data and my own political 'intuition'.
With those last two states finally locked-in, here again is my electoral map prediction (left) compared to the actual results of the 2020 election (right).

Swap Georgia for Florida, and add in Omaha... and I nailed it! #NotBad 😁 ImageImage
Meanwhile you had political hacks like @KMCRadio trading on his credibility and blathering on for weeks about his "internal sources" and "exclusive polling" that suggested Trump will over-perform.

Oops! I guess the polls were right, Kevin.😂 Image
Trump to judges, "Just fuck my shit up."
To the 17% of you who answered in this poll in the affirmative:

When exactly do you expect a Trump concession to occur?

Well, better late than never I suppose.
The party of "law and order," folks. 🤦‍♂️

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More from @JonPaula

Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
Oct 8, 2020
Pence: "I would never presume to know what ACB thinks about abortion."

Oh SHUT THE FUCK UP. That's the entire reason you nominated her!

#VPDebate
Hahah! This fly on Pence's head!

The hero America deserves. 🇺🇲

#VPDebate
If there's one thing we know Trump actually cares about - it's appearances, especially on TV.

Pence's bloodshot eye and fly-attack are going to make him look very weak to his boss.

#VPDebate
Read 5 tweets
Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
Oct 8, 2020
Fun fact: Mike Pence is barely five years older than Kamala Harris.

#VPDebate
Pence is very LOW ENERGY. Sad!

#VPDebate
Quick reminder: the #GreenNewDeal is actually very good for the environment and for the economy. Pence waves it around like a magic buzzword Republicans will automatically hate.

#VPDebate
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
Oct 6, 2020
Where's the lighter emoji when you need it? 🕯️😢
I saw Van Halen play the Boston Garden back in '07, and Eddie - wearing nothing but camouflage cargo pants - more than lived up to his reputation... including this excellent solo mimicking a motorcycle engine. 🎸
As a kid I remember first learning about a band that was named after its guitarist - rather than its front man - and thinking... "Well he must be really good then!"

He was. RIP, EVH. 🕯😢
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
May 31, 2020
I have nothing insightful to say or meaningful to add except #BlackLivesMatter
Changed my mind. I do have something small to share...

Watching the news this week as a privileged white man, safe from the violence and protests all across this country, has me feeling both guilty and helpless.
I've put my money where my mouth is and donated to ally organizations - but I wish I could do more. I wish our leaders inspired us instead of dividing us. I wish the police could be trusted. I wish an black man's murder would cause more outrage than a footballer's silent protest.
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
May 20, 2020
Congratulations, nerds - you did it. #ReleaseTheSnyderCut is happening. I personally don't care for Snyder's "darker" view of these characters and don't believe #JusticeLeague will be improved (much) by making it longer. BvS was nearly 3 hours, and still felt disjointed / rushed.
That said, I love these characters (DC's animated shows of the 90s were appointment viewing after school), and am still interested to see an updated version of what *should* have been an epic movie.
But the truth is, even if this director's cut of #JusticeLeague is the best thing ever? It won't "fix" the maligned DCEU, or restore *this* continuity. Affleck left, the #Cyborg movie is in development hell. And #TheFlash works better as a TV series.

Oh... what might have been.
Read 4 tweets
Jonathan Paula 📸 Profile picture
Apr 13, 2020
If you begin Ron Howard's brilliant film, #Apollo13 at 9:17pm ET tonight, Tom Hanks will utter the infamous, "Houston, we have a problem" line *exactly* 50 years after Jim Lovell said it for real - 10:08pm, on April 13, 1970.
If you're watching #Apollo13 ‐ start the film now! 😁
"It's not a miracle. We just decided to go."

What a brilliant screenplay, this. #Apolo13
Read 23 tweets

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