Thread by @bopinion

LIVE: Bloomberg Opinion’s best political, economic and market minds are joining forces to cover the election.

Follow along with our live blog here: trib.al/wHFBHGr

First, a disclaimer from @TimOBrien: Votes may take a few days to tabulate in some key contests. That's normal! That's OK!

It also means that #Election2020 blogging is all about uncertainty trib.al/wHFBHGr

Let’s start with the economy, via @karlbykarlsmith:

It’s worth remarking how sensitive 2016 appeared to be to economic fluctuations vs. how seemingly irrelevant they are today. Instead, the swing this time seems to be dominated almost entirely by Covid-19 trib.al/wHFBHGr

Polls have been showing enormously lopsided support for Joe Biden among younger voters.

And the early vote suggests that young voters have been turning out. That will have enormous significance in determining who wins the #2020election, says @fdwilkinson trib.al/wHFBHGr

Georgia has voted Republican in eight of the last nine presidential elections (Bill Clinton picked it off last, back in 1992).

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton won two conservative bastions in Georgia in 2016: Cobb and Gwinnett counties trib.al/wHFBHGr

"Why are the financial markets, and even the political betting markets, suddenly confident that the polls have been right all along?" asks @johnauthers.

Today, stocks had a great day, and 10-year bond yields hit their highest levels since early June trib.al/wHFBHGr

2016's election was the first that featured state presidential and Senate votes perfectly aligned. If that happens again, a good #ElectionNight for Biden means a Democratic Senate.

Keep an eye on Arizona, Colorado, Maine & North Carolina, says @RobGeorge trib.al/wHFBHGr

The expanded variance of #Election2020 is key: Things could go either way.

We know people lie about their feelings about Trump, partly because we don't trust the polls, and partly because we know first-time voters are showing up, explains @mathbabedotorg trib.al/wHFBHGr

Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?

In September, more people answered “yes” than ever before. If Trump has performed better than the pollsters predicted, this survey answer could come to seem very important, says @johnauthers trib.al/wHFBHGr

78 minutes ago: "Virginia may not really be a swing state anymore. Democrats control the board there now." — @TimOBrien

Just now: AP calls Virginia

Things can move fast on #ElectionNight

https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1323786919050944513

What's causing President Trump’s perplexing improved performance with minorities, particularly men?

@karlbykarlsmith says...

1) Median household income was way up in 2019
2) Personal income has actually risen during the pandemic trib.al/wHFBHGr

Biden and Trump are neck and neck in #Florida, with Biden getting a huge boost from Broward county.

But Trump voters have turned out in big raw numbers in Miami-Dade trib.al/wHFBHGr

Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler emails @fdwilkinson a bracing piece of data:

“Over the last five days, 23,081 Wisconsinites tested positive for coronavirus. That’s more people than Trump’s margin of victory in 2020.” #ElectionNight trib.al/wHFBHGr

There's a lot to complain about when it comes to polls. They are inaccurate but seemingly authoritative, they confuse and distract us.

Couldn't we find better things to talk about than what white women in Iowa think? asks @mathbabedotorg trib.al/wHFBHGr

Biden is posting impressive numbers in #Ohio — large (but still early!) margins over Trump.

Although Biden has underperformed in Florida, he's outperforming in Ohio, writes @TimOBrien trib.al/wHFBHGr

With numbers coming out of Florida's Miami-Dade County seeming to point to a Trump win in the state, the lesson is clear, says @RobGeorge:

Despite his anti-immigrant reputation, Trump has made significant inroads among the Hispanic (and Black) electorate trib.al/wHFBHGr

Trump is doing...

📈Better among minorities, particularly Hispanics
📉Worse among older voters

The difference is that he is not doing as badly as early polls might have predicted, says @karlbykarlsmith trib.al/wHFBHGr

Let’s talk about #Pennsylvania.

Trump won the state by 0.7% in 2016, the closest margin in almost two centuries. The question is whether the Democrats can claw back enough votes to turn the tables trib.al/wHFBHGr

A bright spot worth noting: All the concern about possible voter intimidation and violence at polling places was for naught, writes @TimOBrien.

The remaining wild card: potential lawsuits, primarily from Republican lawyers on or after #ElectionDay trib.al/LToHSPx

It's hard to know which states are counting what right now, and that's pretty frustrating.

@mathbabedotorg's conclusion is we need better language to describe partial results on #ElectionNight trib.al/LToHSPx

With early returns suggesting Joe Biden is seriously underperforming among Latino voters in states such as Florida and Texas, let's take note of the dog that didn’t bark in #Election2020: immigration.

@RobGeorge asks a key question on the subject⬇️ trib.al/LToHSPx

Pre-election polls and focus groups showed some Hispanic and Black men attracted to Trump’s authoritarian style, says @fdwilkinson.

Some of those men look like they're helping Trump win #Florida tonight👀 trib.al/wHFBHGr

Record voter turnout is a key feature of this #ElectionNight.

The big question is which side benefits. It’s not inconceivable that strong turnout could favor Trump, who has poured energy into mobilizing his base, says @ClaraDFMarques trib.al/wHFBHGr

Here’s another example of what appears to be a real surge of Republican strength around the country:

It looks like Nicole Malliotakis has defeated the incumbent Democrat, Max Rose, who represents Staten Island and Brooklyn in the U.S. House trib.al/wHFBHGr

Biden needs Arizona, especially if Trump keeps sweeping the South.

And all of that is likely to make Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin where the presidential race will be won or lost — shades of 2016 trib.al/wHFBHGr

🚨This might end up being a critical moment the markets, and more generally for the future of global macroeconomic policy, says @johnauthers:

Republican Thom Tillis’s vote total edged ahead of the Democrat Cal Cunningham’s in North Carolina trib.al/wHFBHGr

A "blue wave," with a dramatic move toward deficit financing and infrastructure investment, looks as if it is not happening in #Election2020.

"Many market assumptions that have endured for months need to be changed," continues @johnauthers trib.al/wHFBHGr

Ahead of the U.S. vote, Chinese and Russian state media dialed up their depictions of looming mayhem, says @ClaraDFMarques.

🇨🇳 The People’s Daily says there's fears of “chaos and social unrest"
🇷🇺 RT depicted street clashes and armed vigilantes trib.al/wHFBHGr

A lot of votes remain in #Atlanta, Georgia, so we must wait to see whether GOP Senator Perdue gets to 50% and avoids a runoff.

A runoff is virtually certain in a second Senate race there, which means Senate control could remain unresolved until January trib.al/wHFBHGr

Reminder: If a state isn't called, there's a reason it isn't called.

@jbview sees a lot of folks on Twitter getting ahead of themselves, and the truth is we're just going to have to wait for more counting #Election2020 trib.al/wHFBHGr

Looking for a good indicator of Trump’s perceived #Election2020 prospects?

Try the Chinese yuan traded offshore, which is slumping as investors unwind positions built with an eye to a clear Democratic win, writes @ClaraDFMarques trib.al/wHFBHGr

"I'm not a major critic of the Electoral College, but that's mainly because it hasn't had a long-term bias in favor of either party. That may be changing now, even if Biden does wind up winning," writes @jbview #Election2020 trib.al/wHFBHGr

Patience is a virtue.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be the pivotal contests on the electoral map. Time to exhale and wait for ballots to be counted, writes @TimOBrien trib.al/wHFBHGr

"We're going to have to be patient until the hard work of tallying votes is finished," says Biden #Election2020

It looks unlikely that we’ll know who won the presidential #Election2020 contest for a while.

Biden says he’s optimistic and Trump is tweeting triumphantly, but none of that matters. We just have to wait, writes @jbview trib.al/wHFBHGr

🗳️That’s all for Bloomberg Opinion's #ElectionNight coverage.

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