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5 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
"Covid: Nine ways England's lockdown is different from last time" - BBC

UK truly leads the world when it comes to freedom. Behold 9 incredible advances we've made this year. You never had it so good!

Here's the list:
...
1. You can meet one friend... with your children.
2. Schools and universities are staying open.
3. Public toilets will not be closed
4. 'Bubbles' exist
5. Click and collect services will be available
6. Sitting on a bench is allowed
7. You can take unlimited exercise
8. Dentist and opticians are staying open
9. Nobody will formally shield
I think you missed a few, but then again you can't please everyone and the points you omitted were admittedly non-essentials (liberty, the ability to earn a living, the destruction of society, health, economy etc.).

bbc.co.uk/news/amp/expla…
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More from @RuminatorDan

Ruminator Dan Profile picture
2 Nov
"Coronavirus: T-cell immunity exists six months after infection, study finds" - Sky

This must come as quite a shock. Who'd have thought there could be more to immunity than antibody levels?

Of course that's not the whole article...
The article goes on to say...

"But the researchers, from Public Health England and the UK Coronavirus Immunity Consortium, warn that it's still not clear whether the T-cell levels were high enough to protect against re-infection."
I suggest refering to known science as a starting point. There used to be quite a lot of it around, although we seem to have mislaid it recently.
Read 8 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
30 Oct
"COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratio is About 1.15%" - new ICL study

Higher than 0.7% IFR in ICL's Oct '20 'fading antibodies' study.

Higher than 0.9% UK IFR in the March report predicting ~500k deaths, used to justify lockdowns.

Interpret with care...

webmd.com/lung/news/2020… Image
IFR - its value & even its definition - is an issue open to some debate. Suggested values vary and comorbidities confuse matters.

The WHO, for example, recently implied an IFR of ~0.13%; similar to the sort of value found by John Ioannidis.
What actually matters though is not just the probability of succumbing to the virus if infected but also the probability of becoming infected in the first place.

Population Fatality Rate (PFR) = probability of infection X IFR

...is a very useful concept for this.
Read 7 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
27 Oct
ICL UK STUDY SHOWS DECLINING ANTIBODY LEVELS,
“DASHING HOPES OF HERD IMMUNITY”
ANALYSIS

An ICL led study of population antibody levels found that, between late June & late September “the number of people testing positive dropped by 26.5%”
imperial.ac.uk/news/207333/co…

[27 Oct 2020v1]
The interpretation reported in the media - & seemingly widely believed - is that only those with measurable antibody levels possess immunity & that, if those fade, people become susceptible to re-reinfection.
e.g. news.sky.com/story/coronavi…
& bbc.co.uk/news/health-54…
This ignores well established knowledge regarding the immune system, which is more complex than mere possession of measurable levels of antibodies. In fairness some articles do mention this.

However, the true judge is reality, which we can attempt to study through the data.
Read 11 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
22 Oct
CZECH REPUBLIC & HUNGARY
are currently reporting higher daily Covid-19 deaths per M than other European countries. Current daily deaths are significantly higher than their spring peaks. Interestingly, both experienced far lower earlier total deaths than many other countries. Image
One possibility is that the lower earlier totals correspond to fewer infections, leaving a larger proportion of the population still susceptible.
Incidentally, I do agree with people who've pointed out the unpleasantness of treating this sort of comparison almost as a macabre spectator sport. That should not be the intention. The purpose is to use the information to learn about the virus, value of measures taken etc.
Read 4 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
14 Oct
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTH
IN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAIN
APPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRING

An analysis:

[14 Oct 2020 v1]
[Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.]
[Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
Several countries that experienced relatively high fatalities in the spring have seen an autumn increase. The patterns are similar.

Comparing the recent increases to the spring suggests that the underlying situation might be significantly less severe than generally believed.
TESTING: See notes on chart.

Despite numerous issues relating to testing, we will treat the data as accurate here so as to err on the side of caution & good faith. This should give us a worst case picture, with the reality being likely somewhat milder.
Read 10 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
5 Oct
An estimated 750M, 10% of world’s population have been infected by Covid-19, says WHO's Dr M Ryan

This implies far lower Infection Fatality Rate than previously claimed & potentially significant implications for many countries.

Analysis:

[5Oct2020_1]

irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
While clearly this is only a "best guess" figure, we can still conduct a rough analysis, leading to an interesting conclusion.

10% of world population ~ 750M
Covid-19 deaths to date ~ 1M
Implied IFR = 1/750 = ~ 0.13%
(IFR = Infection Fatality Rate)
An IFR of ~0.13% is almost an order of magnitude lower than the ~1% values seen in much of the predictive modelling that has been used to guide policy, lockdown decisions etc. (E.g. ICL used 0.9% for UK in March).

Even for a rough estimate, this is a significant difference.
Read 10 tweets

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