As a Human, I think of Christina-Taylor Green often. She'd be 19 years old now.
I was living in Phoenix when I got a text message about the shooting.
It made one angry because it was an attack on decency.
For one, Giffords represented that Arizona independence.
Pres Obama said at Tucson memorial service:
"For all our imperfections, we are full of decency & goodness & that the forces that divide us are not as strong as those that unite us. That’s what I believe, in part because that’s what a child like Christina Taylor Green believed."
Giffords, and Kelly, then advocated for the Manchin-Toomey bill in 2013. It failed.
Days later, I filmed Kelly in D.C. as he announced the creation of Americans for Responsible Solutions.
The attacks on Mark Kelly's business ventures didn't resonate enough to cut the trust that most Arizonans held in this family.
When Giffords was shot, that was the same year as the signing of SB1070/Arpaio's "sweeps."
There were Qs about Dem Party's stature in AZ at that time. Little national Dem $$ here til '18.
But Latino & labor orgs mobilized ground efforts like "Adios, Arpaio." Young folks, like Maria Hernandez at age 19, got involved, registered voters.
Today, national implications.
In 2014, Democrats, again, lost all statewide elections. It's a conservative state.
But by 2016, Arpaio was booted by 11% & Trump narrowly won. (McCain outperformed Trump by 10%)
The uniting of AZ's middle & its grassroots efforts were meeting.
In '18, Sinema won in by 2.5%.
In 2020, Cindy McCain & Jeff Flake, who wrote 'Conscience of a Conservative' (nod to Goldwater's 1960 guide) to reject Trump's GOP, cut closing-week Biden ads.
+ those grassroots groups mobilized hundreds of thousands.
And now, AZ just sent its 2nd Dem to U.S. Senate in 2 yrs.
The Arizona GOP chose not to change directions after its 2018 losses.
Instead, it booted McCain allies from state party & placed in the likes of Kelli Ward, who tried to primary McCain in '16.
It doubled down. McSally stood by Trump's side just last week. #s with Inds dropped.
Did GOP surge its pro-Trump voter turnout? Absolutely-but so did Dems. And Independents, which went Trump barely in '16, shifted to Biden.
These are realities.
Do I still think AZ is conservative-ish/libertarian-ish state? Sure. But does Trump's GOP represent that to Arizonans?
And of course, this is a story that transcends just this last decade (i.e. farm workers' movement). Some day we'll do a whole Arizona doc.)
[...know AZ already elected its first Latino governor? Back in 1970s--gentleman from U.S.-Mexico border community of Douglas--Raul Castro.]
And for a short video look on what’s happened in Arizona in 2020, here’s this.
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Combined, they're below that roughly 75% threshold that we calculated would be roughly needed by Trump among the remaining non-Maricopa ballots if, in fact, those remaining Maricopa ballots come in at about 53% for Trump.
And look to @Garrett_Archer for breakdown of how E-Day voters voted -- Trump won those voters statewide & in, specifically, Maricopa County, by more than 60%.
That said, plenty of reason to believe higher rate of Dems turned in late earlies in final days.
Looking like GOP may be able to hit their R+3 statewide mark by night's end.
That is what most pollsters (including NYT's Friday poll) were using as marker.
In 2016? It was R+6.7 statewide.
From data so far, GOP is near R+2 statewide. *But: GOP in-person voters are outpacing Dem in-person voters in Maricopa by about 2.5-to-1 margin. Their ballot advantage expected to increase more w/ rural in-person voters & early ballots dropped off today.
Hey from Arizona! Where things are going smoothly!
A big reason:
Maricopa County (60% of AZ electorate) has 75% more ballots returned at this point than four years ago & processing is going well.
Watch this to see what the initial system once USPS drops off your ballot:
Here’s the room where officials are verifying the signature on every mail-in ballot envelope. TWO officials check each signature against one’s signature recorded in the voter registration database or other files (like DMV) if necessary. If not verified, then county calls voter—
Here is where one person picked by AZGOP & one person picked by AZDems manually pull out every ballot out of envelope. They work together to stack the ballots. These envelopes are saved until after the certification (& challenge period) of all ballots.
1) Border wall -- 300 miles of new wall (majority is replacement). 2) USMCA -- Yuma is America's winter lettuce capital/major ag economy 3) Military -- Marine Corps Air Station Yuma here (+10k miliitary/family members)
NBC: "A member of Congress who you think you most identify with?”
.@CaptMarkKelly: "...John McCain...example of how you would serve your nation in a very difficult & challenging moment. He was a guy I looked up to & then later, I got to meet him & eventually call him a friend."
NBC: What went wrong in AZ with COVID?
@CaptMarkKelly: "We need a national plan. I mean, we don't have it...the president was thanking China & thanking them for their transparency. He even thanked them on behalf of the American people. Senator McSally said nothing."