I regret not sharing these lines during this MSNBC hit just a moment after we projected Mark Kelly the winner of Arizona's Senate seat.

But.

In covering 2020, we would often not focus on the early years of this last decade that led to this political moment.

A rough timeline:
But the 2011 Tucson shooting shook Arizonans.

U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords was long viewed as the Senate candidate that Mark Kelly became in 2020.

6 died:
-Christina-Taylor Green
-John Roll
-Gabe Zimmerman
-Phyllis Schneck
-Dorwan Stoddard
-Dorothy Morris
As a Human, I think of Christina-Taylor Green often. She'd be 19 years old now.

I was living in Phoenix when I got a text message about the shooting.

It made one angry because it was an attack on decency.

For one, Giffords represented that Arizona independence.
Pres Obama said at Tucson memorial service:
"For all our imperfections, we are full of decency & goodness & that the forces that divide us are not as strong as those that unite us. That’s what I believe, in part because that’s what a child like Christina Taylor Green believed."
Giffords, and Kelly, then advocated for the Manchin-Toomey bill in 2013. It failed.

Days later, I filmed Kelly in D.C. as he announced the creation of Americans for Responsible Solutions.

That gave way to @GiffordsCourage.
The point: Years led to this moment.

The attacks on Mark Kelly's business ventures didn't resonate enough to cut the trust that most Arizonans held in this family.

When Giffords was shot, that was the same year as the signing of SB1070/Arpaio's "sweeps."
There were Qs about Dem Party's stature in AZ at that time. Little national Dem $$ here til '18.

But Latino & labor orgs mobilized ground efforts like "Adios, Arpaio." Young folks, like Maria Hernandez at age 19, got involved, registered voters.

Today, national implications. Image
In 2014, Democrats, again, lost all statewide elections. It's a conservative state.

But by 2016, Arpaio was booted by 11% & Trump narrowly won. (McCain outperformed Trump by 10%)

The uniting of AZ's middle & its grassroots efforts were meeting.

In '18, Sinema won in by 2.5%.
In 2020, Cindy McCain & Jeff Flake, who wrote 'Conscience of a Conservative' (nod to Goldwater's 1960 guide) to reject Trump's GOP, cut closing-week Biden ads.

+ those grassroots groups mobilized hundreds of thousands.

And now, AZ just sent its 2nd Dem to U.S. Senate in 2 yrs.
The Arizona GOP chose not to change directions after its 2018 losses.

Instead, it booted McCain allies from state party & placed in the likes of Kelli Ward, who tried to primary McCain in '16.

It doubled down. McSally stood by Trump's side just last week. #s with Inds dropped.
Did GOP surge its pro-Trump voter turnout? Absolutely-but so did Dems. And Independents, which went Trump barely in '16, shifted to Biden.

These are realities.

Do I still think AZ is conservative-ish/libertarian-ish state? Sure. But does Trump's GOP represent that to Arizonans?
And of course, this is a story that transcends just this last decade (i.e. farm workers' movement). Some day we'll do a whole Arizona doc.)

[...know AZ already elected its first Latino governor? Back in 1970s--gentleman from U.S.-Mexico border community of Douglas--Raul Castro.]
And for a short video look on what’s happened in Arizona in 2020, here’s this.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Vaughn Hillyard

Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @VaughnHillyard

6 Nov
Some new non-Maricopa County drops, below.

Combined, they're below that roughly 75% threshold that we calculated would be roughly needed by Trump among the remaining non-Maricopa ballots if, in fact, those remaining Maricopa ballots come in at about 53% for Trump.
More not-adequate #s for Trump in Arizona.

A batch of ~5k just dropped out of Yuma.

Compared to Biden, Trump brought in...49.7%.

Again, Trump needs his final 70k non-Maricopa ballots to hit a mark of ~75%. That's not reality with today's dumps so far.
And now a ~7k dumped from Pima.

Trump pulls in 52% of that dump compared to Biden.

Again, not the # that Trump needs to change this trajectory.

...I think it's safe to call this a Trump Trolley in AZ.

140 mins away from being more sure of that.
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
Based off of the numbers we have so far, there are about 440k outstanding ballots.

If that's the case (we expect more*)...

Trump would have to win these remaining ballots 60.6% to Biden's 39.4%.
And look to @Garrett_Archer for breakdown of how E-Day voters voted -- Trump won those voters statewide & in, specifically, Maricopa County, by more than 60%.

That said, plenty of reason to believe higher rate of Dems turned in late earlies in final days.
And ** the major swath comes from Maricopa County (because the above numbers don't include their late earlies, it appears).

Lots of caveats...all this to say, there are still several hundred thousand outstanding ballots in Arizona in a close race.
Read 4 tweets
3 Nov
What does Arizona look with under 6 hours left?

Per convos around the horn today...

Looking like GOP may be able to hit their R+3 statewide mark by night's end.

That is what most pollsters (including NYT's Friday poll) were using as marker.

In 2016? It was R+6.7 statewide.
From data so far, GOP is near R+2 statewide. *But: GOP in-person voters are outpacing Dem in-person voters in Maricopa by about 2.5-to-1 margin. Their ballot advantage expected to increase more w/ rural in-person voters & early ballots dropped off today.
Again, we need more data from rural counties & Pima County -- especially on # of early ballots being *dropped off* at polls.

But, again, Independents also voting today at solid rate in Maricopa. And if Biden is ~+20% among INDs, that's hard to overcome.
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Hey from Arizona! Where things are going smoothly!

A big reason:

Maricopa County (60% of AZ electorate) has 75% more ballots returned at this point than four years ago & processing is going well.

Watch this to see what the initial system once USPS drops off your ballot:
Here’s the room where officials are verifying the signature on every mail-in ballot envelope. TWO officials check each signature against one’s signature recorded in the voter registration database or other files (like DMV) if necessary. If not verified, then county calls voter— Image
And then!

Here is where one person picked by AZGOP & one person picked by AZDems manually pull out every ballot out of envelope. They work together to stack the ballots. These envelopes are saved until after the certification (& challenge period) of all ballots.
Read 6 tweets
18 Aug
Good day from Yuma, Arizona ~ 77 days til the election.

Here’s the line to get into President Trump’s campaign event — I’m told it’ll be a 1000 person limit here at a Yuma airport hangar.
Pres. Trump is en route to Yuma for 2nd time in 2 months.

Why?

Just 3% of Arizonans, per our July poll, say they are undecided between Biden & Trump.

Now it's a matter of turning your supporters out -- and for Trump, selling his on 2016 promises.

What does Yuma represent? For Trump:

1) Border wall -- 300 miles of new wall (majority is replacement).
2) USMCA -- Yuma is America's winter lettuce capital/major ag economy
3) Military -- Marine Corps Air Station Yuma here (+10k miliitary/family members)
Read 8 tweets
10 Aug
It's the most expensive race in Arizona history -- already.

For the Senate seat held by GOP for 50 years, from Goldwater to McCain, w/ @kaitlin_purcia @MattWargo.

Thread Below --> Extended clips from my interviews with @CaptMarkKelly & @SenMcSallyAZ.
msnbc.com/kasie-dc/watch…
NBC: "A member of Congress who you think you most identify with?”

.@CaptMarkKelly: "...John McCain...example of how you would serve your nation in a very difficult & challenging moment. He was a guy I looked up to & then later, I got to meet him & eventually call him a friend."
NBC: What went wrong in AZ with COVID?

@CaptMarkKelly: "We need a national plan. I mean, we don't have it...the president was thanking China & thanking them for their transparency. He even thanked them on behalf of the American people. Senator McSally said nothing."
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!