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6 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Some new non-Maricopa County drops, below.

Combined, they're below that roughly 75% threshold that we calculated would be roughly needed by Trump among the remaining non-Maricopa ballots if, in fact, those remaining Maricopa ballots come in at about 53% for Trump.
More not-adequate #s for Trump in Arizona.

A batch of ~5k just dropped out of Yuma.

Compared to Biden, Trump brought in...49.7%.

Again, Trump needs his final 70k non-Maricopa ballots to hit a mark of ~75%. That's not reality with today's dumps so far.
And now a ~7k dumped from Pima.

Trump pulls in 52% of that dump compared to Biden.

Again, not the # that Trump needs to change this trajectory.

...I think it's safe to call this a Trump Trolley in AZ.

140 mins away from being more sure of that.
And same in Cochise County, folks -- a Trump-friendly county.

Via @Garrett_Archer:

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More from @VaughnHillyard

Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
6 Nov
I regret not sharing these lines during this MSNBC hit just a moment after we projected Mark Kelly the winner of Arizona's Senate seat.

But.

In covering 2020, we would often not focus on the early years of this last decade that led to this political moment.

A rough timeline:
But the 2011 Tucson shooting shook Arizonans.

U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords was long viewed as the Senate candidate that Mark Kelly became in 2020.

6 died:
-Christina-Taylor Green
-John Roll
-Gabe Zimmerman
-Phyllis Schneck
-Dorwan Stoddard
-Dorothy Morris
As a Human, I think of Christina-Taylor Green often. She'd be 19 years old now.

I was living in Phoenix when I got a text message about the shooting.

It made one angry because it was an attack on decency.

For one, Giffords represented that Arizona independence.
Read 13 tweets
Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
4 Nov
Based off of the numbers we have so far, there are about 440k outstanding ballots.

If that's the case (we expect more*)...

Trump would have to win these remaining ballots 60.6% to Biden's 39.4%.
And look to @Garrett_Archer for breakdown of how E-Day voters voted -- Trump won those voters statewide & in, specifically, Maricopa County, by more than 60%.

That said, plenty of reason to believe higher rate of Dems turned in late earlies in final days.
And ** the major swath comes from Maricopa County (because the above numbers don't include their late earlies, it appears).

Lots of caveats...all this to say, there are still several hundred thousand outstanding ballots in Arizona in a close race.
Read 4 tweets
Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
3 Nov
What does Arizona look with under 6 hours left?

Per convos around the horn today...

Looking like GOP may be able to hit their R+3 statewide mark by night's end.

That is what most pollsters (including NYT's Friday poll) were using as marker.

In 2016? It was R+6.7 statewide.
From data so far, GOP is near R+2 statewide. *But: GOP in-person voters are outpacing Dem in-person voters in Maricopa by about 2.5-to-1 margin. Their ballot advantage expected to increase more w/ rural in-person voters & early ballots dropped off today.
Again, we need more data from rural counties & Pima County -- especially on # of early ballots being *dropped off* at polls.

But, again, Independents also voting today at solid rate in Maricopa. And if Biden is ~+20% among INDs, that's hard to overcome.
Read 5 tweets
Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
22 Oct
Hey from Arizona! Where things are going smoothly!

A big reason:

Maricopa County (60% of AZ electorate) has 75% more ballots returned at this point than four years ago & processing is going well.

Watch this to see what the initial system once USPS drops off your ballot:
Here’s the room where officials are verifying the signature on every mail-in ballot envelope. TWO officials check each signature against one’s signature recorded in the voter registration database or other files (like DMV) if necessary. If not verified, then county calls voter— Image
And then!

Here is where one person picked by AZGOP & one person picked by AZDems manually pull out every ballot out of envelope. They work together to stack the ballots. These envelopes are saved until after the certification (& challenge period) of all ballots.
Read 6 tweets
Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
18 Aug
Good day from Yuma, Arizona ~ 77 days til the election.

Here’s the line to get into President Trump’s campaign event — I’m told it’ll be a 1000 person limit here at a Yuma airport hangar.
Pres. Trump is en route to Yuma for 2nd time in 2 months.

Why?

Just 3% of Arizonans, per our July poll, say they are undecided between Biden & Trump.

Now it's a matter of turning your supporters out -- and for Trump, selling his on 2016 promises.

What does Yuma represent? For Trump:

1) Border wall -- 300 miles of new wall (majority is replacement).
2) USMCA -- Yuma is America's winter lettuce capital/major ag economy
3) Military -- Marine Corps Air Station Yuma here (+10k miliitary/family members)
Read 8 tweets
Vaughn Hillyard Profile picture
10 Aug
It's the most expensive race in Arizona history -- already.

For the Senate seat held by GOP for 50 years, from Goldwater to McCain, w/ @kaitlin_purcia @MattWargo.

Thread Below --> Extended clips from my interviews with @CaptMarkKelly & @SenMcSallyAZ.
msnbc.com/kasie-dc/watch…
NBC: "A member of Congress who you think you most identify with?”

.@CaptMarkKelly: "...John McCain...example of how you would serve your nation in a very difficult & challenging moment. He was a guy I looked up to & then later, I got to meet him & eventually call him a friend."
NBC: What went wrong in AZ with COVID?

@CaptMarkKelly: "We need a national plan. I mean, we don't have it...the president was thanking China & thanking them for their transparency. He even thanked them on behalf of the American people. Senator McSally said nothing."
Read 25 tweets

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