#MarketUpdate THREAD

The most organic pump I've seen in years.

This was not a squeeze from derivatives traders but from solid organic buying.
Exhibit A:

A ridiculous amount of coins were scooped up and moved off to individual wallets. Image
Zooming out, putting this into perspective, it's the largest one day scoop up in this 5-year chart. Image
Exhibit B:

Prior to this pump, the influx of new HODLers seen on the blockchain was going through the roof.

(clusters of new wallet addresses holding BTC from new unique participants that were unseen before) Image
Repeat, through the roof, I'm not kidding. 🚀

This size of uptake was last seen in October 2017; that was one month before BTC entered its 2017 mania phase.

(We are nowhere near mania right now, we haven't even broken the prior all-time-high) Image
A decent amount of investors took profit according to SOPR. It's in the region that typically halts an immediate further rise.

SOPR = the ratio of profit for coins moving between investors. Image
Also derivative funding rates are high-ish, providing headwinds for further climbs.

Average PERP funding across all exchanges pictured here by @glassnode Image
Overall conclusion: Not expecting a blow off top. Waiting for a consolidation to complete, then more bullish action.
For a further, more detailed breakdown, I've made this latest edition of The Bitcoin Forecast free to all.

willywoo.substack.com/p/the-organic-…

⭐️Reminder, there's 4 days left to sign up to get in during the launch month special.
Thanks to @glassnode for supporting this analysis by sponsoring the on-chain data.

Also to my paid subscribers who made this possible. 🙏

🚀🚀🚀

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More from @woonomic

18 Apr
#marketupdate, breaking it down, post mortem.

We just saw the single largest 1-day drop in mining hash rate since Nov 2017. The hash rate on the network essentially halved, causing mayhem in BTC price as it crashed. Image
The power outage in Xinjiang (which powers a significant amount of the BTC mining network) was known before the BTC price crash. Here's local news on 15th April.

translate.google.com/translate?sl=a…
16 April.

9000 BTC was sent into Binance, read that as a sell off of those coins.

I'd note that Binance serves volume from Asia more than the West. It's likely this was sent in from a whale with closer knowledge to happenings in China. Image
Read 10 tweets
31 Mar
A time-lapse map of the price when coins last moved.

Clusters of strong price discovery:
$55k (7% of supply last moved above this)
$47k (15%)

$46.4k is the price I'm modelling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close).
Shear cliffs are areas where coin supply moves steeply upwards in price discovery. (green)

Flows downwards are bear market movements where coins move downwards to lower prices, investors accepting losses (red).
Horizontal bands are dense areas of where coins last moved, hence strong price discovery, acting as support and resistance.
Read 5 tweets
29 Mar
Let report these top fake accounts before more people get scammed 🙏🙌:

@Woonomiic1 (5456)
@Woonomicz (5427)
@woonomic5 (3157)
@Woonoom_ic (2793)
@woonnommic (1199)
@woonom1c (1002)
You're a defender of the scam-trodden by working through these 👏👏:
@_woonomlc (411)
@woonomiiic (340)
@woonimic (234)
@woonomci (219)
@wo0nomic (195)
@woonemic (118)
Willy Woo dedication prize goes to you reporting this bunch 😇😇:

@woonommiic (76)
@woonomiics (54)
@wconomic (27)
@WilliWoonomic (13)
@wonomiic (12)
@woonomic1 (8)
@voonomic11 (6)
@woonomic52 (5)
@woonomjc (4)
@voonomic93 (2)
@woonomic40 (2)
@voonomic20 (2)
Read 5 tweets
26 Mar
According to CT, NZ Pension fund deployed 5% into BTC back in Oct 2020 (2 months after MicroStrategy).

Sep 2020 it was $1.75b NZD AUM. That's roughly a $60m USD buy of BTC.

cointelegraph.com/news/new-zeala…
BTC would represent 20%+ of the fund in March 2021. I imagine they would have rebalanced since then, selling down some of their GBTC the last few weeks, given it's a diversified fund.
This is probably the original article from Stuff. It cites $350m AUM, some mismatch from my own search finding $1.75b AUM Sep 2020.

stuff.co.nz/business/12463…
Read 4 tweets
25 Mar
Hmmmm..... Rick Astley spotted buying the dip, rabidly.
Zooming in from weekly to daily... oh yes. Today we have a new all-time-high in BTC leaving the exchanges for 2021. And a new dip buying prize to award.
It's also a new Rick Astley high score.

Remember, the red bars is the daily count of coins moving to Rick Astley, the HODLer of last resort, who never gives up or deserts BTC.
Read 4 tweets
23 Mar
The 2015 -> 2017 bull market
"Making a name"

Density map of the coin supply at the price they last moved. #Bitcoin
The 2012 -> 2013 bull market
"Mt Gox and Silkroad"
The 2019 -> 2021 bull market
"The Herd"
Read 4 tweets

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