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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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7 Nov, 7 tweets, 7 min read
Settling back in on couch with TV. It’s morning in America, day 5 in #USElection

Got a good feeling this will finish today.

@JoeBiden looks likely to win this election with a popular vote victory of close to 10 million votes. Margins in all states (sans AZ) solid & growing.
Questions for #USElection (& predictions):
- What lead is needed in PA for networks to make call? (50k)
- When a call is made how will @realDonaldTrump respond (not that it matters)? (Badly)
- Will pointless recounts proceed in GA, WI? (No)
- Will Trump catch up in AZ? (No) /1
More #USElection open questions (& answers):
- Will calm come if Trump/Fox keeps fueling fires among his base? (No)
- Will discussion about NC resume today? (Yes)
- Will @realDonaldTrump ever learn to count? (No)
- Will Trump go gracefully? (No)
/2
Yet more #USElection questions for today (& answers)
- How happy is @SRuhle & all @MSNBC anchors? (Very)
- Is @Morning_Joe on this morning? (Yes)
- Will a stellar performance from @morningmika @JoeNBC hasten an end to this? (Yes)
- How sweet is it to be alive today?(Very)
/3
Today there are many Qs with easy answers. Qs with enormous consequences.
- Will @realDonaldTrump watch @Morning_joe this morning? (Yes)
- Will @JoeNBC encourage him to go softly? (Yes)
- Will he go softly? (No)
- Should @MSNBC call the election today? (Yes)
/4
Q&As on calling #USAelection2020 today:
- Are legal cases a reason not to call? (N)
- Will @FoxNews follow a @MSNBC call? (Y)
- Will Fox call for calm during call. (Y)
- Will this help? (Y)
- What are 🇬🇧 bookies odds on @JoeBiden win? (96%)
- What are real odds? (100%)
/5
Q&A on not calling election:
- Will @realDonaldTrump accept call. (N)
- Will Trump keep tweeting regardless? (Y)
- If no call will Trump, Bannon, Alex Jones, Hannity, Giuliani continue to incite? (Y)
- Will a call remove this platform? (Y)
- Will a call reduce violence? (Y)
/6

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
The last big dump has come in. 23k lead remains. Trump got 26 Biden 19k. This could result in a call on AZ. And if a NV call gets made.... then maybe, just maybe it’s fine for... #GameOverDonaldTrump
A further 7000 votes is due to come in Allegheny County PA in 30mins. Providing an expected 4800 votes which will take @JoeBiden’s lead to 33k. Both returns provide some data for the @CNN and @AP @FoxNews and @MSNBC Decision Desks.

#GameOver is getting busy. Image
And 3000 votes from Philly have put Biden over for @MSNBC.

#GameOver Image
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
Ok so @SteveKornacki is the house. Watch the ratings bump @MSNBC. Then give him a pay rise.
Ritch Fitzgerald Allegheny County Executive in PA picks 12k more @joebiden votes today. On provisional ballots (which should not be an issue), he says it’s a slow process to deal with 17k ballots, days.

When this ends PA poll workers deserve a HUGE socially distanced thank you.
The @JoeBiden camp expresses frustration with slow cable network calls.

“We feel frustrated with the networks, but fine, confident, happy. It looks like today will be the day after more AZ & NV data comes in. We have a clear picture who won & they need to call it.”

#GameOver
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
I knew this was going to be awesome. @JoeNBC is on 🔥. @realDonaldTrump is watching and the end game is on. Soon it will be #gameover
With all due respect to the network Decision desks. Provisional ballots are completely irrelevant in races with 4 digit margins.

This would even be true even in California. This discussion is the second coming of #RedMirage. A form of mad media collective dimness.
Lawsuits are similarly completely irrelevant at law unless they reach a level of materiality. If there is near-zero, or zero chance of the a lawsuit resulting in any change, it will be dismissed. Judges are allergic to election petitions even when they have merit.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
The PA count is getting very Kafka.

PA improves voting rules
@potus says mail ballots are fraud
@potus plans, then telegraphs his plan to screw the election in PA
@potus tells GOP voters not to mail votes
@potus votes by mail himself /1
...
. Before election legal harassment of PA voting officials begins
. Multiple legal cases make things more difficult
. @GOP PA legislature tries to set up election inquisition cmtte.
. @maddow finds out, plan abandoned
. @potus continues to telegraph plan to screw USA in PA /2
...
. PA election officials prepare for a crap time start doing everything by the book
. Barton Gellman reveals the full detail of @potus plan to screw America in PA
. @potus starts talking about corrupt Philly election officials
. Legal harassment reaches @scotus
/3
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
The Democrats are going to find it difficult to Govern with a HoR majority of 8. This is true. But if the @DNC seeks to exclude the progressive base it will tear itself apart.

A third way is needed. And perhaps that can be found in responsible devolution of power to States. /1
Listening to @JoeNBC shouting at people with views like mine and @AOC’s about changing the way we live for the better, addressing the existential crisis of Climate Change, improving health welfare and education is not a strategy, it’s a way to light a new fire. /2
The centralised control of aspects States Finances was shown to be a bug not a feature. During Covid. Competition and regulatory law capture in the US destroys creativity and entrenches power, at the expense of freedom and opportunity. The @DNC needs to find a middle way. /3
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
Dear @feministabulous I've just read your article on the Gender Gap disappearing based on the Exit Poll.

If what you are saying is correct then a 54 year trend of women voting at higher numbers in U.S. elections than men has reversed itself.
For this to have happened in the re-election of a horrific racist mysogynist whose election sparked the largest women's mobilisation in 2017 seems a bit odd.
I noticed this on election night and drew a couple of slides to explain the math which is pretty simple.

Only one of these two facts can be correct:

1. the 2020 exit poll on gender split (which exactly matched 2016).

Or

2. the polling data which predicted a 20% gender gap.
Read 4 tweets

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