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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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7 Nov, 7 tweets, 5 min read
Ok so @SteveKornacki is the house. Watch the ratings bump @MSNBC. Then give him a pay rise.
Ritch Fitzgerald Allegheny County Executive in PA picks 12k more @joebiden votes today. On provisional ballots (which should not be an issue), he says it’s a slow process to deal with 17k ballots, days.

When this ends PA poll workers deserve a HUGE socially distanced thank you.
The @JoeBiden camp expresses frustration with slow cable network calls.

“We feel frustrated with the networks, but fine, confident, happy. It looks like today will be the day after more AZ & NV data comes in. We have a clear picture who won & they need to call it.”

#GameOver
To point out the blindingly obvious, this is not just about PA anyway. To win @realDonaldTrump needs to win all four of these states. His best chance is AZ and he would need to win a vanishingly unlikely recount in GA. Biden only needs to win PA or AZ+NV.
The defeated @realDonaldTrump is definitely not bringing his A-game this morning. His censored tweet cites a Gym Jordan tweet that’s 13 hours old about an even older irrelevant court order from Justice Alito ordering Philadelphia to do something it was already doing.
The biggest implication of news Trump’s Chief of Staff Mark ...“we’ve given up on trying to contain Covid”... Meadows has Covid (as the US has 3rd day of 100k+ cases) hasn’t yet been mentioned.

If Meadow has Covid he’s by definition weak. And therefore Trump won’t listen to him.
And.... almost on cue, the news has arrives that @POTUS @realDonaldTrump is heading out for a game of golf.

It seems he plans to play through the announcement of his own defeat. #GameOverTrump

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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
The last big dump has come in. 23k lead remains. Trump got 26 Biden 19k. This could result in a call on AZ. And if a NV call gets made.... then maybe, just maybe it’s fine for... #GameOverDonaldTrump
A further 7000 votes is due to come in Allegheny County PA in 30mins. Providing an expected 4800 votes which will take @JoeBiden’s lead to 33k. Both returns provide some data for the @CNN and @AP @FoxNews and @MSNBC Decision Desks.

#GameOver is getting busy.
And 3000 votes from Philly have put Biden over for @MSNBC.

#GameOver
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
I knew this was going to be awesome. @JoeNBC is on 🔥. @realDonaldTrump is watching and the end game is on. Soon it will be #gameover
With all due respect to the network Decision desks. Provisional ballots are completely irrelevant in races with 4 digit margins.

This would even be true even in California. This discussion is the second coming of #RedMirage. A form of mad media collective dimness.
Lawsuits are similarly completely irrelevant at law unless they reach a level of materiality. If there is near-zero, or zero chance of the a lawsuit resulting in any change, it will be dismissed. Judges are allergic to election petitions even when they have merit.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
7 Nov
Settling back in on couch with TV. It’s morning in America, day 5 in #USElection

Got a good feeling this will finish today.

@JoeBiden looks likely to win this election with a popular vote victory of close to 10 million votes. Margins in all states (sans AZ) solid & growing.
Questions for #USElection (& predictions):
- What lead is needed in PA for networks to make call? (50k)
- When a call is made how will @realDonaldTrump respond (not that it matters)? (Badly)
- Will pointless recounts proceed in GA, WI? (No)
- Will Trump catch up in AZ? (No) /1
More #USElection open questions (& answers):
- Will calm come if Trump/Fox keeps fueling fires among his base? (No)
- Will discussion about NC resume today? (Yes)
- Will @realDonaldTrump ever learn to count? (No)
- Will Trump go gracefully? (No)
/2
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
The PA count is getting very Kafka.

PA improves voting rules
@potus says mail ballots are fraud
@potus plans, then telegraphs his plan to screw the election in PA
@potus tells GOP voters not to mail votes
@potus votes by mail himself /1
...
. Before election legal harassment of PA voting officials begins
. Multiple legal cases make things more difficult
. @GOP PA legislature tries to set up election inquisition cmtte.
. @maddow finds out, plan abandoned
. @potus continues to telegraph plan to screw USA in PA /2
...
. PA election officials prepare for a crap time start doing everything by the book
. Barton Gellman reveals the full detail of @potus plan to screw America in PA
. @potus starts talking about corrupt Philly election officials
. Legal harassment reaches @scotus
/3
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
The Democrats are going to find it difficult to Govern with a HoR majority of 8. This is true. But if the @DNC seeks to exclude the progressive base it will tear itself apart.

A third way is needed. And perhaps that can be found in responsible devolution of power to States. /1
Listening to @JoeNBC shouting at people with views like mine and @AOC’s about changing the way we live for the better, addressing the existential crisis of Climate Change, improving health welfare and education is not a strategy, it’s a way to light a new fire. /2
The centralised control of aspects States Finances was shown to be a bug not a feature. During Covid. Competition and regulatory law capture in the US destroys creativity and entrenches power, at the expense of freedom and opportunity. The @DNC needs to find a middle way. /3
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
6 Nov
Dear @feministabulous I've just read your article on the Gender Gap disappearing based on the Exit Poll.

If what you are saying is correct then a 54 year trend of women voting at higher numbers in U.S. elections than men has reversed itself.
For this to have happened in the re-election of a horrific racist mysogynist whose election sparked the largest women's mobilisation in 2017 seems a bit odd.
I noticed this on election night and drew a couple of slides to explain the math which is pretty simple.

Only one of these two facts can be correct:

1. the 2020 exit poll on gender split (which exactly matched 2016).

Or

2. the polling data which predicted a 20% gender gap.
Read 4 tweets

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