When the 2016 election cycle was first starting, I said that if Joe Biden ran, he'd be the nominee and he'd win – and that Biden's most likely running mate would be Kamala Harris. Based on all the evidence at the time, it felt like the most logical and likely outcome. And it was.
I'm not Nostradamus. I just look at evidence, as opposed to groupthink and hype. The numbers made clear from day one that Biden was the overwhelming frontrunner. And if you asked yourself who else in the primary field Biden would most logically end up picking, it was Kamala.
Even when Biden badly lost Iowa and New Hampshire, the numbers and evidence still made very clear that he would win South Carolina and Super Tuesday. His frontrunner status was never in doubt. Any hype to the contrary at the time was a misunderstanding of the evidence.
My point: y'all have to learn to tune out the pundits when they start trying to get attention by hyping underdogs and unlikely outcomes as if they were likely outcomes. Biden was always the frontrunner. Not one minute in 2015 or 2016 when he wasn't the frontrunner.

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More from @PalmerReport

9 Nov
Today would be a good day for that New York grand jury to go ahead and indict Donald Trump on state charges, even if they can't arrest him quite yet. The more Trump is forced to play defense during the transition, the less he can play offense.
If you're new here and you're asking "what grand jury," recall that the Trump tax return court battle was the result of a New York grand jury subpoenaing his taxes. They're clearly in the process of criminally indicting him.
Whether the grand jury has his taxes yet or not, it already reportedly has evidence from Michael Cohen and other sources. New York could easily indict Trump now, then hit him with a superseding indictment on the other stuff later.
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
When Trump spent the final weeks of the election putzing around and doing nothing constructive to help his odds of winning, the fatalists were certain that it was because he had a secret evil genius plan for rigging the election. Turns out he had no plan of any kind.
Now that Trump is spending the transition putzing around and doing nothing constructive, the fatalists are once again certain that it must mean he has a secret evil genius plan for... something or other. But nothing works that way in the real world.
When Bill Barr disappeared for the final month of the election, some of y'all were certain it meant he was carrying out his own secret evil genius plan to rig the election. But it turns out he was just out of gas. He reached the end of his influence awhile.
Read 7 tweets
9 Nov
There's a reason the Democrats won every court ruling during election week. When a case is something that could be argued either way, judges may go with their own bias. But when you have literally no legal case, like Trump, you just get laughed out of court.
The same will be true for the transition period. If Biden has to keep going to court to get the access or documents he needs from the Trump regime, he'll do it. And he'll win every time. Because Trump has literally no case, and that's an automatic loss.
There is no magic wand scenario where you go into court with literally no case, and the judge sides with you anyway just because the judge likes you better. That's not the real world. Biden has lawyers. It's just a matter of how much Trump wants to humiliate himself.
Read 4 tweets
9 Nov
Spoiler alert: there’s not one person in the Trump administration who’s willing to go to prison just to make the transition period harder for President Biden. Not one. Some of them, such as the GSA administrator today, will bluff about it a bit. But they’ll all end up caving...
What these dumb dumbs are hoping is that you’ll be naive to believe they can somehow magically get away with just not signing off on the transition. If they’ve got you scared of an imaginary threat, they can use it as leverage to get concessions in return...
The first rule in defeating Trump and his henchmen has always been to stop naively falling for the things they threaten to do that are literally impossible. Being gullible isn’t the same as being vigilant. When you fall for impossible threats, you hand the bad guys leverage.
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
Every single thing that Trump does over the next 73 days will be about seeking a softer landing when it comes to the criminal charges, civil penalties, and financial troubles he's about to face once he leaves office. Everything else said by him, or about him, will just be noise.
Trump is "contesting" the election so he can fundraise off of it. If he threatens to refuse to leave office, it'll be in the hope he can negotiate some kind of leniency in exchange for leaving peacefully.
If Trump starts doing weird things or starts pushing a bombastic agenda, it'll be to distract us from whatever he's working on behind the scenes to try to give himself a prison-free and bankruptcy-free exit from office.
Read 16 tweets
8 Nov
These dipshits at NBC are really going to make us wait for Saturday Night Live tonight until after the college football game ends, and then after local news airs? On this day of all days? At this historic moment? NBC, fuck you!
First NBC makes us wait all that extra time for the election results, and now they’re delaying SNL too? They’re not just ignorant, they’re stupid.
I’m a football fan. I understand this is the top team and the biggest star. But you still don’t do this, on this particular day. They could easily have bounced the game to MBCSN once it went into double overtime. Most Saturdays are about college football. Today isn’t.
Read 5 tweets

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