I note it is a difference between arms of *symptomatic* infection - this might mean reduction in disease severity, but we need to know about transmission
Why is that important?
2/6
With only ~90 events there's no way we'll be able to see efficacy in the highest risk groups who we are trying to protect (and who we're most worried won't mount an effective immune response)
Nice to turn COVID into a cold for younger people, but not what we're aiming for
3/6
On which note - we need to determine priorities for vaccination
We can't roll out 7bil vaccines all at once
The UK JCVI have a guide on their priorities, which is generally the elderly and those who look after them
Quick thread on latest @ONS infection survey data, which is very informative!
FYI: the survey involves mass random population testing for #COVID19 in England and Wales, so is not biased by symptoms/test seeking - so very useful indeed!
1/7
I can't go any further without pointing out the massive regional disparities between the north and south of England
Whilst not completely straight forward, this is likely in part due to socioeconomic differences which we know influence effects of disease transmission
2/7
But of course, I'm interested in the KIDS!
Schools open for nearly 6 weeks with fairly limited infection mitigation, and cases rising exponentially across the country
"The education and well-being of the current generation of children and young people should be the highest priority in any national strategy to reopen society."
Children have been spared the worst of disease from the pandemic, even considering the extremely rare post-COVID-19 hyperinflammatory syndrome
But school closures have been harming children, so the question regarding their role in transmission has loomed large
2/8
A new study from brings us a step closer to understanding
In a meta analysis of contact tracing studies, children acquire the infection less than adults. Looking at household transmission specifically, by less than half (OR 0.41, 95%CI 0.22 - 0.76)
2 groups of scientists with opposing viewpoints on handling the pandemic write open letters to the chief medical officers
Strangely I found them both compelling, and agree with the majority of both letters
Links in following tweets
1/4
First a group recommending more acknowledgment of non-COVID harms of interventions, and recognition of the age disparity in risk for future interventions
There has never been more confusion about the role of children in transmission of #SARSCoV2 , and tensions are running high over implications for #schoolsreopening
When considering transmission risk we must consider 2 classes of factors;
Non-modifiable: The biology of the host and pathogen
Modifiable: Behavioural or environmental influence
Since we can change the latter via policy/guidance etc, we'll focus on the former
2/13
How easily to children catch the virus?
Household contact tracing studies suggest less easily than adults; by about half given the same exposure, based on 4 reviews of all the evidence (links in next tweet)