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10 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#Armenia: The war in NK is over, but now Pashinyan’s government should survive another “war”, a political one, at home, where the public is deeply disillusioned. The situation is very unstable. This serves the old system that may mull a counter-revolution. ria.ru/20201110/armen…
This situation creates a momentum for the “old system”.
The Armenian President Sarkissian praises Pashinyan and Russia in this interview, and accuses Turkey and Azerbaijan of “continuing the genocide”. armenpress.am/eng/news/10344…
Political changes in NK.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
10 Nov
#Nagorno-Karabakh: The ceasefire deal favors Azerbaijan and Russia, and less so Armenia. Here are my takeaways after examining the agreement (THREAD /6):
1. The complete ceasefire comes together with the withdrawal of Armenia from all Azeri territories controlled outside NK - Aghdam (until Nov. 20), Kelbajar region (until Nov. 15); Lachin region (until Dec. 1). The remaining territory (in red circle) is tiny compared to pre-war.
2. Russia comes into play. Its 1970 peacekeepers will be deployed for 5 years, with possible prolongation, in the remaining part of NK and the Lachin corridor (5 km wide). This also will include a “center” for peacekeepers that could be converted into a military base by Russia.
Read 9 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
8 Nov
#Moldova: Here is a list of publications on Moldovan elections that I have produced so far. Additionally, I am adding interviews & articles of the foreign journalists. If you follow Moldova, then this thread could be helpful to get equipped before the run-off in one week:
1. Дежавю в новой реальности, 4 November, ipg-journal.io/regiony/evropa…
2. Moldova: Presidential elections, conspiracies merger and “colored revolutions, 1 November, ipn.md/en/moldova-pre…
Read 11 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
9 Sep
Some highlights from Lukashenko’s interview with the pro-Kremlin propagandists (THREAD /5):
1.Lukashenko told that if falls Belarus than Russia is to follow. That points to the fact that he deliberately externalizes the risks he assesses for the existing Belarusian regime to bring Russia into the game of his survival.
2.A comparison with the Ukrainian oligarchs is made in the pursuit for a moral approbation. He portrays himself as being “guilty” for wanting to protect the status quo, an imaginary “paradibut not for stealing from people like the politicians in the neighborhood.
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
25 Aug
The Russian church replaced the leader of the Belarusian Orthodox Church, Metropolitan Pavel. Is this a request of Lukashenko or something else? Here are my findings. THREAD: (1/8)
1. Some time ago, the Metropolitan Pavel implored Lukashenko’s regime to stop the violence. news.tut.by/society/696638…
2. Over the last 10 days, the church wasn’t really present in the political and public debates in #Belarus. The protesters didn’t ask the church to join them, neither the regime interacted openly with the church.
Read 9 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
5 Aug
There are suspicions that the explosions in #Beirut are linked to 2.750 tons of Amonium Nitrates, shipped in bulk, by a vessel under #Moldovan flag, from Batumi (#Georgia) on the way to Africa, back in 2013 (1/4).
2/ Due to technical and then security issues, the content of the cargo was stored in the warehouses of the port of Beirut. Apparently, the welding work could be the cause of the explosion. Image
3/This case provides a clear example when corruption and organized crime involving some countries (Moldova, Georgia) can have transnational security consequences.
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
22 May
A diplomatic scandal between #Romania and #Moldova broke out today. The Romanian MFA issued a strong reaction to insulting comments of the Moldovan Prime Minister on Facebook that involved Romanian politicians and implicitly the Romanian authorities (THREAD 1/4):
1. The MPE @SMuresan made a political statement on his FB account criticizing the lacking reforms in Moldova. His statements don’t represent neither the official position of the European Parliament nor of the EU or Romania. He has the right to express such opinions, but they...
have a strong political substance. The MPE Muresan refers to a report published by the @EP_ThinkTank, half of which is descriptive and points out structural deficiencies that exist in Moldova. MPE Muresan attributes The failures in reforms are attributed to the incumbent govt.
Read 10 tweets

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