Much can be learned on the payment system and the monetary-fiscal nexus from the rise and fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609 - 1820), one of the first central banks in Europe

Link to my BIS working paper published today:

bis.org/publ/work902.h…

A short thread follows
The Bank of Amsterdam started life as a rigid stablecoin, where holders of silver and gold coins delivered them to the Bank, in return for deposits
These deposits were used for wholesale payments - for settlement of financial instruments like bills of exchange where a payment was settled by debiting the account of the payer and crediting the account of the receiver, much like the modern wholesale payment system
As a public institution owned by the City of Amsterdam, the Bank found itself increasingly thrust into a public policy role, fine-tuning financial conditions through its market operations, much like a modern central bank
But it lacked the fiscal backing of a modern central bank, and found itself in the awkward halfway house between a rigid stablecoin and a central bank without full fiscal backing; this halfway house ultimately proved untenable
The lessons are remarkably resonant of current debates on the monetary fiscal nexus, and how far a central bank can push monetary financing before crossing the line of no return

Link:

bis.org/publ/work902.h…
But it’s worth underscoring how successful the Bank was for much of its 170 year history; it famously saved the day in the systemic crisis of 1763 with tools that would make modern central banks blush

Re-posting the paper with @Isabel_Schnabel

bis.org/authors/1763_s…

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More from @HyunSongShin

14 Aug
Corporate credit markets decoupled in March; bond issuance boomed but discretionary bank credit stalled

Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin

A thread follows

bis.org/publ/bisbull29…
First, some facts:

The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
This decoupling of the bond and syndicated loan market is a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of Lehman, when loan volumes crashed and bond issuance surged (right-hand panel)
Read 15 tweets
23 Jul
Inflation tail risks have risen, mostly to the downside but some also to the upside

Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28…
Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
The authors get at tail risks through quantile regressions that track outliers in realised inflation; the red curves below give the densities of 4-quarter ahead probability densities for inflation
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul
Well done to @GitaGopinath and the team for the timely report and for putting together this superb panel chaired by @SoumayaKeynes; time was too short to explore all the issues, but a couple of the points deserve emphasis

A short thread follows
We're accustomed to thinking of the global economy as a collection of "islands", each island being a national GDP area; exchange rates then adjust to bring balance of payments into balance
Today's report from the IMF shows that the short-term response of exports to a depreciation does not follow this script; imports decline and exports barely budge imf.org/en/Publication…
Read 23 tweets
16 Jul
Central bank swap lines were instrumental in quelling #DollarFunding stresses back in March

The latest #BIS_Bulletin provides a bird's eye perspective, showcasing the use of BIS banking statistics at its best bis.org/publ/bisbull27…

A thread follows
First thing to say is that #DollarFunding need outside the Unites States is big; dollar liabilities of non-US banks comes in at 13 trillion dollars - this is the same figure as just before the GFC
But notice the shift in the composition; the GFC was essentially a transatlantic crisis, with European banks at the eye of the storm.

European banks have retrenched, but others have taken their place; Asian EMEs are especially notable
Read 21 tweets
24 Jun
In the breathless news cycle, some questions of genuine long-term importance can get left behind; spare some time to read our take on the state of money and the payment system... and where we should be headed
The pandemic has underlined why access, speed and cost of payment services for the general public are more important than ever; Covid-19 has been a real life stress test for our most important financial infrastructure: the payment system. The record here has been mixed...
Fiscal authorities put in place (very swiftly) much needed fiscal support measures to households and firms - around 10% of GDP in budgetary measures, and about the same again in terms of funding and guarantees bis.org/publ/bisbull23…
Read 36 tweets
4 Jun
Outflows from bond mutual funds is an important and topical issue. A new BIS working paper posted today looks at the determinants of bond fund outflows and their consequences
bis.org/publ/work868.h…
Poorly performing funds are more susceptible to investor outflows, but the laggards are particularly vulnerable for bond funds
It is a matter of "devil take the hindmost" with the laggards being punished hardest

For equity funds, it is a case of "winner take all", and there is less discrimination between middling and poor performers
Read 5 tweets

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