BBN Profile picture
10 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
1/5
UK retail investors continue to fixate on UK Gov contracts for #AVCT tests, as the cornerstone of their success.

A CE Mark means Europe wide sales for professional use, are at their disposal. That means all European businesses/governments.
2/5
Given these are a relatively new and cheaper form of testing, whose demand will fall short of their supply, then why do UK retail investors feel they must win UK contracts to sell.

Furthermore, given the highlighted demand and ease with which the European market can be...
3/5
...accessed, plus the fact that other tests keep coming to the fore and supposedly stealing potential AVCT contracts, the question continues to remain, why has AVCT, as late as 30t Sept, still only focused on the UK?
4/5
This question becomes all the more relevant with today’s AVCT tweet and the words “continue to make significant commercial progress for these tests.”

That coming on 10th Nov, prior to CV and any UK Gov studies being complete.

Yes one can always argue that they have made...
5/5
...a commercial error. Too many eggs in one basket. However, if that were so then where’s all the commercial interest coming from?

I’ve said all along there’s a reason why AVCT is focused on UK only and it clearly isn’t being undermined by other tests getting there first.

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More from @BigBiteNow

11 Nov
1/13
What I liked most about the @BushveldMin_Ltd update today, was that it was focused on an isolated but important project for #BMN. Thus allowing it to breathe a tad more and not get lost in the lengthy and often detailed updates, that are the norm.

londonstockexchange.com/news-article/B…
2/13
I would like to see the company continue with this pattern moving forward.

As to the update, very solid but it will now be all about how long NERSA need to sign off on the license application. Being 1MW, its certainly falls within their powers to act quickly but what that..
3/13
...means exactly, will act as a template for future BMN projects at their facilities and indeed across S.A.

Great to see Enerox staking a claim in this particular area of the business too. They were always going to be the focus due to the increased ownership and control...
Read 13 tweets
9 Nov
1/3
At the current £265m MC, #AVCT needs to sell min. what? c. 25-30m (e.g) tests in the first year.

Will a vaccine prevent them from achieving that? No.

Will they likely sell far more than that? In my opinion, yes.

By 2022, AVCT/partners will highly likely be bringing new..
2/3
...non Covid tests to the market, to replace any potential lost revenue from Covid tests.

They will also have advanced their LG Chem, Moderna and Daewong partnerships, as well as having AVA6000 results, which in turn will advance other drugs in their PreCISION stable.
3/3
The more their Covid tests contribute to this, the more the other areas of the business can flourish.

Its all about time and patience, which I am happy to contribute.

Yes the drop's an opportunity for those that got out and want to get back in, but that's not my style.
Read 6 tweets
2 Oct
1/6
I would think as #TILS move through the process to demerge Accustem Sciences, the SP should start to trend higher.

Today's RNS confirms the easy bit with the court hearings being the true barrier, be it I see little problem in getting through them.
2/6
I don't buy a £280m IPO valuation because they won't have a test ready for market. Whilst the CE Mark process is 'planned' to begin in November 2020, it won't be completed until well after the IPO.

However, I am certainly enthused by Executive Chairman Gabriele Cerrone's
3/6
"beneficial interest" in the c. 33% of TILS, that is owned by Planwise Group LTD.

What that says is that the push will certainly be on, to maximise the IPO and minimise the dilution required.

I talk about dilution because it will inevitably come with the IPO,
Read 7 tweets
2 Oct
1/7
All these months, I have tried to keep things in perspective on how big an opportunity these Covid tests, could be for #AVCT.

The phrase "if it sounds to be good to be true," kept coming to mind.

Given where we are in the process and what AVCT presented on 29th Sept,
2/7
I think I am now entitled to start factoring in few of my grander questions.

If AVCT can set itself on a path to even half of what has been presented, so 50-60m tests per month, be it directly involved or not,
3/7
what does that say about where they can take the therapeutics business post AVA6000 first (assumed successful) read out?

How many therapies can be tackled at once?

What does it say about their standing in the diagnostic and even cancer therapies market place?
Read 7 tweets
2 Oct
1/11
Another interesting #AVCT slide I liked, which again supports what I have been saying today.

"Avacta is addressing the very significant COVID-19 testing opportunity in UK first and will continue to scale manufacturing to meet global demand"

What a lovely sentence that is.
2/11
Particularly when they go on to talk about 30m people testing themselves once a week, delivering 120m tests per month.

That's just one market.

"Therefore the commercial opportunity form Avacta is determined by supply capacity and not demand"

Lovely sentence mark 2
3/11
Yes they talk about self testing but until that is available (post field studies etc), business can be encouraged to take up the strain. Such things as tax credits etc come to mind, meaning a shoot for such a number, starts when professional use gets the green light.
Read 11 tweets
2 Oct
1/5
In terms of that government FOMO, the other highlighted uses on that #AVCT slide, point towards "GP surgery" and "Testing station."

Both of which orientate themselves towards UK Gov.

Parking that rather large potential GP surgery market for a moment.
2/5
For anyone doubting AVCTs ability to win significant orders from the UK Gov, just consider for a moment, how much more efficient UK Gov testing sites could become, when a test result can be achieved in c. 10 mins, without the need to employ an expensive piece of kit.
3/5
How much quicker the stations could process their backlogs and how fewer miles people would have to drive, to get a test full stop.

How likely is it that the UK Gov would turn that opportunity down and let it be sold overseas? Possible but minimal in my view.
Read 5 tweets

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