Thread by @RuminatorDan

CZECH REPUBLIC & OTHER EUROPEAN
HIGHER FATALITY COUNTRIES
(thread)

Signs of Czech Rep deaths slowing? I wish them well. Interesting, yet again, that the cumulative total is so similar to other hard hit locations, which are all around 10x lower than generally used predictions...

The point is not to use these data for some ugly competition. Rather, these data and their differences - or similarities - can reveal very important information about #SARSCoV2 .

For example, UK deaths were predicted to reach ~7500 per Million (=~500k people, without measures).

However, if the hypotheses that led to such predictions were true, & such totals have only been averted by lockdown, then one would expect large variations between countries (as exact details & timing of lockdown and other measures would be critical).

High sensitivity to timing would be the case if "high lethality+all susceptible+lockdowns work" hypotheses were true. Yet all the high fatality locations have quite similar total deaths per M; all in the region of 10+ times lower than those predictions.

https://twitter.com/RuminatorDan/status/1271072295415689217?s=20

if one looks at cases, the slowing is clearer to see; and this despite the massive increase in testing and the many testing-related issues that severely affect cases data (& therefore now deaths data too).

Here are the charts as still images along with a link to the news article shown above.
bbc.co.uk/news/health-52…

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