1. The diff @kasie between El Paso & NYC though is that as @BetoORourke will tell you, the people of El Paso are being murdered by the extremism (and even worse, indiff) of the GOP in TX. Which, if TX Ds had made clear in the election instead of focusing on healthcare as directed
2. national Ds, by the D orgs, AND by the state party's consultants (whereas the advice I gave to nationalize the race, tie in Trump, & make it a referendum on the pandemic was ignored. Honestly, I thought my phone would ring. Even after being warned that @texasdemocrats were
3. heavily reliant on heavy @TheDemocrats strategy which is itself reliant on a dialed-in, consultant class heavy "strategy" that is out-dated, frankly. The candidates that enjoy the most success are those w the financial flexibility to go rouge & build their own turnout machines
4. devoted to solving the Bitecofer equation (equalized partisan turnout) like Katie Porter out in CA 45, a district which has fundamentals that slightly favor the GOP. The same is true this year in the presidential contest. I didn't have to sweat it out bc in MI, WI, & PA, AZ
5. and addition to work from the grassroots- who have always understood this, the state parties were focused heavily on ensuring they did not see a repeat of 2016. Thus, they were using money from their own coffers to knocks doors for low propensity D, esp in the cities. This,
6. combined w the nationalized messaging coming from @ProjectLincoln (which encouraged, I think, more nationalized messaging from the Biden campaign too) all allowed me to sleep at night confident the forecast would materialize. cnu.edu/wasoncenter/20…
7. Where the stratewgy DIDN't get nationalized, where Donald Trump was not indicted for voters, where candidates were not tied to Trump like the GOP ties any and every D to @AOC no matter how moderate- bc these things did not happen on the congressional strategy, only in races
8. that had the right demos- college edu voters and/or diversity of the competitive field stayed Ds (which is most of the 40 seats gains, as I predicted ) but ALL the potential growth was lost in both House & state leg races. Its a massive blown opp.
That said, w a moderization
9. of the party's strategic approach and moderate messaging I suggest, Ds could NOT be wiped out in 2022. The WRONG answer is a finger pointing about issues that were weaponized by the Right. The Right are effective weaponizers- there will always be something they can demonize Ds
10. for which is why the ONLY solution is to teach this party how to stop, permanently, being victims.
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1. Rem when @TheDemocrats took my advice, nationalized their strategy for their statehouse elections and rode neg partisanship referendum waves flipping control of lower chambers in NC, IA, MI, TX,& AZ to join with VA & end the GOP's 2009 Operation Red Meat maps?
2. That's right,. they totally flopped that by forcing everyone to run on healthcare and treating the whole of the Republican Party as if it's just another Sunday in the park when even at the state level, its clear the system is straining (as state leg Reps have spoken openly
3.about their intentions to violate the will of the voters, or fight for them. The point I'm trying to make, and I am truly grateful that now @mccaffreyr3 is speaking out to help me make it, is that the system is going to be tested and will strain here and that we will be tested.
1. I think school closures also dragged Ds down in congressional races. To be clear, they wouldn't in a functional democracy not following a herd immunity strategy & normalizing the indifference genocide of up to a half million of its citizens. That "conditional" is a necessary
2. component of the "pandemic backlash effect that we have in the U.S. other countries don't have sizable anti-mask movements, ones so large it impedes states like North Dakota who governor @DougForDakota has "led" them to a point where every single county in his large;y rural
3. state has been governed to "high" infection rates. He must feel so successful that liberty & freedom is so abundantly clear all around him! So yes, in a country that has normalized murdering via indifference its old, medical compromised & in the case of grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronav…
1. I'm not sure if people understand what is going on within the Trump camp & the bowels of the GOP. The point of the "count the legal but not the illegal ballots" talking point is to normalize to their electorate that some segment of counted votes are fraudulent. Their hope is
2. to convince state legislators in PA, MI, and WI where the GOP holds majorities to refuse to send Biden electors. Yes, this violates state laws. Yes, the courts will invalidate their claims. But their hope is that over a month they'll have accomplished what they've
3. accomplished w @Comey, Bob Mueller, Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Benghazi, & so many other things- simply by using control of the airwaves (Fox News, talk radio, internet- it is an impressive propaganda network) they can convince their half of the electorate that the ends justify
1. The 2022 cycle is likely to produce a "reversion to the mean" in terms of voter behavior, with Indies pulling back their turnout surge and w/o the strategic modernization I am BEGGING for, Dem coalition voters rolling back too.
This will produce party splits in districts like
2. VA's 7, which BTW my research & theory was able to identify as DEF flipping in 2018 blind to the candidate based purely on the above surge reality from demo change, realignment, generational change, & growth (this was posted washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opin…
3. five months before Election Day & when other raters had this district Lean R! That was the recipe for winning under the Trump surge election, and frankly, Ds could be sloppy on strategy and still win. There was virtually no price for it in 2018 & even though there was a price
1. It's come to my att. that some people blame individual candidates for the Ds underperformance in the congressional map. Just like it's not the fault of progressives, BLM, OR moderate issues, it's not the fault of candidates or individual campaigns, folks.
These campaigns are
2. run under basic strategic maps brought to them by the DCCC/DSCCC/DLCC & imposed on the campaigns. If the campaigns want the help, they must accept these imposed "rules" from their on, messaging, ads, direct mailers- its ll set by the party's strategists. That's why MY ire is
3. directed, bc the strategic approach being crafted from the "C-suite" (executive office/corporate offices) in the partry's orgs, despite being research-based, is producing subpar outcomes electorally & needs to be overhauled. The frustration is that this need has been clear
1. No sooner than will Biden be sworn in than the VA 2021 cycle, w an open gubernatorial race commences. The cycle will be highly contentious bc both parties will face open primaries & bc the GOP overperformed down-ballot, I expect GOP candidates will compete for than nomination
2. BUT the competition on the DEM side is going to be ridiculous. Seriously, we might get to 2020 Dem primary proportions. This is bc the Dem nominee will be highly favored to win. And despite VA's long reputation of breaking for the oppo party of the prez elected the year before
3. the dealignment of college-educated whites makes the continuation of this trend unlikely this cycle. In this cycle, 2020, with virtually no spending (though Biden did run some TV ads) Biden won 54.1% of the vote, and turnout is at 71%. This is bc VBA is the 5th most educated