1. I think school closures also dragged Ds down in congressional races. To be clear, they wouldn't in a functional democracy not following a herd immunity strategy & normalizing the indifference genocide of up to a half million of its citizens. That "conditional" is a necessary
2. component of the "pandemic backlash effect that we have in the U.S. other countries don't have sizable anti-mask movements, ones so large it impedes states like North Dakota who governor @DougForDakota has "led" them to a point where every single county in his large;y rural
3. state has been governed to "high" infection rates. He must feel so successful that liberty & freedom is so abundantly clear all around him! So yes, in a country that has normalized murdering via indifference its old, medical compromised & in the case of grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronav…
4. COVID- which is a random killer, which sometimes kills young healthy mothers whose own mothers couldn't let their daughter forgo a baby shower bc its such a special part of the birth experience or bc how do you skip the "1 year" baby party when the baby smashes her cake all
5. over her own head? I get it. Those are once in a lifetime events that can't be replaced. So people have been doing them bc their governors & their president esp has told them to do so, that its no big deal, that actually they'd be FOOLS not to hold that gender reveal party,
6. and the result is that all across this country there are tiny humans who will be growing up without ANY memory moments/milestone moments with their mommies bc when the time came for leadership to matter, people like @GregAbbott_TX and @realDonaldTrump told them to get on out
7. out there and play Russian roulette with a random killer. So average voters, the ones that don't know who Chuck Todd or Mitch McConnell (IE: the vast majority of them) are- they are assessing the pandemic from the American frame, from an imagistic lens-shaped largely by the
8. president's tone. President is telling them its no big deal then why in the hell can't I send my kid to school? Journalists/analysts might point to polls to say that there is a large disconnect between the public & Trump on the pandemic- on its severity and the response which
9. by every objective standard will go down in history has wretchedly bad, as @OliviaTroye is trying to bring attention to as a brave whistleblower from the WH's COVID task force. What the GOP understands & Ds just don't is that bc the vast, vast majority of Americans are passive
10. receptors of info (via ads targeted at them on TV & esp online now, appearances strategically constructed for them via cable news channels) reality is what you make of it. If you want to make Donald J. Trump the best darn diddley 'arn president in the history of the world
11. it is fairly easier to do. If you want to convince your "crop" of 60 million Americans that more than a third of the ballots cast in the 2020 cycle are "illegal" with enough repetition and shrewd dishonor, yep, you can do that too. And that is pretty much what the Right has
12. done with COVIOD19. In order to deal w Trump's piss poor handling of the crisis- his Administration total executive ineptness, they simply de-crisified it (that is not a word, but I am using it anyway.) If @NaomiAKlein likes the Shock Doctrine- how about turning the party's
13. entire propaganda machine to the purpose of erasing a global pandemic, WHILE IT IS IN PROGRESS, and thus leading to the deaths of thousands of Americans? I mean, wow right?! Those people at the Trump rallies- that was some next level shit there.
Trust me, it did not escape
14. GOP strategists' attention that rather than any of this stuff harming them at the polls- in terms of Senate races, voter manipulation via digital was a stunning success.
I'll state this again, the argument that @SpanbergerVA07 is having w The Squad is like arguing about the
15. best set up for a library's Dewey Decimal card catalog 10 years after the invention of the internet.
15. Same as the convo that much of the moderate influencers are having- its the same tied convo bc it focuses on ISSUES. That is NOT the overhaul Ds need. I think @TimRyan gets this. Tim, ☎️ me
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1. Rem when @TheDemocrats took my advice, nationalized their strategy for their statehouse elections and rode neg partisanship referendum waves flipping control of lower chambers in NC, IA, MI, TX,& AZ to join with VA & end the GOP's 2009 Operation Red Meat maps?
2. That's right,. they totally flopped that by forcing everyone to run on healthcare and treating the whole of the Republican Party as if it's just another Sunday in the park when even at the state level, its clear the system is straining (as state leg Reps have spoken openly
3.about their intentions to violate the will of the voters, or fight for them. The point I'm trying to make, and I am truly grateful that now @mccaffreyr3 is speaking out to help me make it, is that the system is going to be tested and will strain here and that we will be tested.
1. The diff @kasie between El Paso & NYC though is that as @BetoORourke will tell you, the people of El Paso are being murdered by the extremism (and even worse, indiff) of the GOP in TX. Which, if TX Ds had made clear in the election instead of focusing on healthcare as directed
2. national Ds, by the D orgs, AND by the state party's consultants (whereas the advice I gave to nationalize the race, tie in Trump, & make it a referendum on the pandemic was ignored. Honestly, I thought my phone would ring. Even after being warned that @texasdemocrats were
3. heavily reliant on heavy @TheDemocrats strategy which is itself reliant on a dialed-in, consultant class heavy "strategy" that is out-dated, frankly. The candidates that enjoy the most success are those w the financial flexibility to go rouge & build their own turnout machines
1. I'm not sure if people understand what is going on within the Trump camp & the bowels of the GOP. The point of the "count the legal but not the illegal ballots" talking point is to normalize to their electorate that some segment of counted votes are fraudulent. Their hope is
2. to convince state legislators in PA, MI, and WI where the GOP holds majorities to refuse to send Biden electors. Yes, this violates state laws. Yes, the courts will invalidate their claims. But their hope is that over a month they'll have accomplished what they've
3. accomplished w @Comey, Bob Mueller, Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Benghazi, & so many other things- simply by using control of the airwaves (Fox News, talk radio, internet- it is an impressive propaganda network) they can convince their half of the electorate that the ends justify
1. The 2022 cycle is likely to produce a "reversion to the mean" in terms of voter behavior, with Indies pulling back their turnout surge and w/o the strategic modernization I am BEGGING for, Dem coalition voters rolling back too.
This will produce party splits in districts like
2. VA's 7, which BTW my research & theory was able to identify as DEF flipping in 2018 blind to the candidate based purely on the above surge reality from demo change, realignment, generational change, & growth (this was posted washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opin…
3. five months before Election Day & when other raters had this district Lean R! That was the recipe for winning under the Trump surge election, and frankly, Ds could be sloppy on strategy and still win. There was virtually no price for it in 2018 & even though there was a price
1. It's come to my att. that some people blame individual candidates for the Ds underperformance in the congressional map. Just like it's not the fault of progressives, BLM, OR moderate issues, it's not the fault of candidates or individual campaigns, folks.
These campaigns are
2. run under basic strategic maps brought to them by the DCCC/DSCCC/DLCC & imposed on the campaigns. If the campaigns want the help, they must accept these imposed "rules" from their on, messaging, ads, direct mailers- its ll set by the party's strategists. That's why MY ire is
3. directed, bc the strategic approach being crafted from the "C-suite" (executive office/corporate offices) in the partry's orgs, despite being research-based, is producing subpar outcomes electorally & needs to be overhauled. The frustration is that this need has been clear
1. No sooner than will Biden be sworn in than the VA 2021 cycle, w an open gubernatorial race commences. The cycle will be highly contentious bc both parties will face open primaries & bc the GOP overperformed down-ballot, I expect GOP candidates will compete for than nomination
2. BUT the competition on the DEM side is going to be ridiculous. Seriously, we might get to 2020 Dem primary proportions. This is bc the Dem nominee will be highly favored to win. And despite VA's long reputation of breaking for the oppo party of the prez elected the year before
3. the dealignment of college-educated whites makes the continuation of this trend unlikely this cycle. In this cycle, 2020, with virtually no spending (though Biden did run some TV ads) Biden won 54.1% of the vote, and turnout is at 71%. This is bc VBA is the 5th most educated