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Rachel
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12 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1. Rem when @TheDemocrats took my advice, nationalized their strategy for their statehouse elections and rode neg partisanship referendum waves flipping control of lower chambers in NC, IA, MI, TX,& AZ to join with VA & end the GOP's 2009 Operation Red Meat maps?

Oh yeah...
2. That's right,. they totally flopped that by forcing everyone to run on healthcare and treating the whole of the Republican Party as if it's just another Sunday in the park when even at the state level, its clear the system is straining (as state leg Reps have spoken openly
3.about their intentions to violate the will of the voters, or fight for them. The point I'm trying to make, and I am truly grateful that now @mccaffreyr3 is speaking out to help me make it, is that the system is going to be tested and will strain here and that we will be tested.
4. Like @mccaffreyr3 I concede the system SHOULD be able to deflect these challenges but that they are coming, and that the system will be tested, I am sure. And its nerve racking as hell!

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More from @RachelBitecofer

Rachel
13 Nov
1. Well-meaning but strategically STUPID Never Trump Republicans in Utah cost @BenMcAdams his seat in UT-4. They invented a new party- something some of you dream of doing to fix "our broken 2-party system" & instead, they siphoned off the votes he needed to win reelection. Image
2. I should note that they did, eventually, realize the error of their ways & try to end their candidate's candidacy. But if you don't withdraw before the ballots or printed (& shit, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP sued to keep her on the ballot- they're shrewd like that)
3. you're still getting printed on that ballot. Now, what's interesting to me is the strong performance- esp since she quit. The Libertarian Party performed very well in this district. This is SLC, very college edu which is why my model ID'd it in 2018 as a potential flipper.
Read 8 tweets
Rachel
13 Nov
1. The ONLY way to make the under 40 crowd change behaviors (absent coercion via gov action like a mask mandate-given Trump & the GOP have set a careless tone in concrete in the U.S.) is to start featuring the deaths of young people on local news, social media, & ads on TV.
2. These ads would need to present ONLY young people and highlight their deaths in ways that admittedly take their representation in the data out of proper context. BC right now, the under-40 crowd are driving the infection spread & they are doing it bc they believe that if they
3. get it- they'll likely get the asymptomatic or low-symptom kind. It ironic, bc a population that has a demonstrably shitty capability of assessing risk is suddenly really good at assessing it correctly. BC the Under-40 crowd have very, very good odds of the above, esp if they
Read 6 tweets
Rachel
11 Nov
1. I think school closures also dragged Ds down in congressional races. To be clear, they wouldn't in a functional democracy not following a herd immunity strategy & normalizing the indifference genocide of up to a half million of its citizens. That "conditional" is a necessary
2. component of the "pandemic backlash effect that we have in the U.S. other countries don't have sizable anti-mask movements, ones so large it impedes states like North Dakota who governor @DougForDakota has "led" them to a point where every single county in his large;y rural
3. state has been governed to "high" infection rates. He must feel so successful that liberty & freedom is so abundantly clear all around him! So yes, in a country that has normalized murdering via indifference its old, medical compromised & in the case of grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronav…
Read 16 tweets
Rachel
11 Nov
1. The diff @kasie between El Paso & NYC though is that as @BetoORourke will tell you, the people of El Paso are being murdered by the extremism (and even worse, indiff) of the GOP in TX. Which, if TX Ds had made clear in the election instead of focusing on healthcare as directed
2. national Ds, by the D orgs, AND by the state party's consultants (whereas the advice I gave to nationalize the race, tie in Trump, & make it a referendum on the pandemic was ignored. Honestly, I thought my phone would ring. Even after being warned that @texasdemocrats were
3. heavily reliant on heavy @TheDemocrats strategy which is itself reliant on a dialed-in, consultant class heavy "strategy" that is out-dated, frankly. The candidates that enjoy the most success are those w the financial flexibility to go rouge & build their own turnout machines
Read 10 tweets
Rachel
10 Nov
1. I'm not sure if people understand what is going on within the Trump camp & the bowels of the GOP. The point of the "count the legal but not the illegal ballots" talking point is to normalize to their electorate that some segment of counted votes are fraudulent. Their hope is
2. to convince state legislators in PA, MI, and WI where the GOP holds majorities to refuse to send Biden electors. Yes, this violates state laws. Yes, the courts will invalidate their claims. But their hope is that over a month they'll have accomplished what they've
3. accomplished w @Comey, Bob Mueller, Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Benghazi, & so many other things- simply by using control of the airwaves (Fox News, talk radio, internet- it is an impressive propaganda network) they can convince their half of the electorate that the ends justify
Read 18 tweets
Rachel
9 Nov
1. The 2022 cycle is likely to produce a "reversion to the mean" in terms of voter behavior, with Indies pulling back their turnout surge and w/o the strategic modernization I am BEGGING for, Dem coalition voters rolling back too.

This will produce party splits in districts like
2. VA's 7, which BTW my research & theory was able to identify as DEF flipping in 2018 blind to the candidate based purely on the above surge reality from demo change, realignment, generational change, & growth (this was posted
washingtonpost.com/blogs/all-opin…
3. five months before Election Day & when other raters had this district Lean R! That was the recipe for winning under the Trump surge election, and frankly, Ds could be sloppy on strategy and still win. There was virtually no price for it in 2018 & even though there was a price
Read 7 tweets

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