1. Well-meaning but strategically STUPID Never Trump Republicans in Utah cost @BenMcAdams his seat in UT-4. They invented a new party- something some of you dream of doing to fix "our broken 2-party system" & instead, they siphoned off the votes he needed to win reelection.
2. I should note that they did, eventually, realize the error of their ways & try to end their candidate's candidacy. But if you don't withdraw before the ballots or printed (& shit, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP sued to keep her on the ballot- they're shrewd like that)
3. you're still getting printed on that ballot. Now, what's interesting to me is the strong performance- esp since she quit. The Libertarian Party performed very well in this district. This is SLC, very college edu which is why my model ID'd it in 2018 as a potential flipper.
4. STILL, its Utah, so it was not a gimme race like many of the others under a surge turnout model. Frankly, this was a district that needed to produce the surge to see if it could meet the size need to flip. The Lib pull off likely was a factor in 2018 too- this is actually a
5. systemic problem the GOP faces all across America- losing a chunk of voters, particularly college ed white men, to the Lib track (I joke that young white dudes ALWAYS think they're libs until they figure out what they're into other than pot, then they realize they're actually
6. Dems, its just that the GOP has killed the brand "Dem" so bad everywhere outside the West Coast and Northeast- 20 yr white dudes are embarrassed to think they might BE Dems! (SuperPac's gonna fix that problem, among the Left's many). Anyway, the Lib Party is pretty well
7. developed, but a 7K vote showing off a candidate who withdrew from a party that didn't exist 4 years ago in a race that already had a 3rd party drawing from the center right and center. Interesting. Wouldnt be surprised to find out the Utah Republican Party hit their own voter
8. file with an ad or ads for this Never Trumper bc it would have likely pulled away any R thinking of defecting to @BenMcAdams/@RepBenMcAdams
The strategic stupidity that goes along w this is mind blowing.
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1. It's good to 👀 @KatieHill4CA on @MSNBC bc she f'ed up- but it wasn't like she intentionally orphaned 1000s of children, including babies, to psychologically f' w Mexican asylum seekers like some people we know. Who then received the votes of 70 million OTHER people we know
2. so you know, in the grand scheme of things....
Plus, she's no dummy, as evidenced by her comments as to the LUNACY of canceling your door knocking in the MOST IMP CYCLE IN THE HISTORY OF THE COUNTRY'S LIFE, let alone your life. Someone, or someone(s) pushed that policy & they
3. should be fired/demoted/removed. Their other "advice" re-examined ( I'll do it FOR FREE!) They sure as hell should NOT BE driving electioneering strategy in any way going forward. NEVER EVER again. Katie Hill understood the basic math that I have taken to calling the Bitecofer
@jerry_jtaylor There is no one more directly responsible for the D's blown performance on the congressional map than Shor & his company Catalist, who convinced the principals at the @TheDemocrats to stick w their DEAD theory & strategy & even now, as it lies dead on the side of the road....
@jerry_jtaylor@TheDemocrats Not only is Shor unable to support his thesis beyond the "they fail to keep up proportionally" claim which, btw, is true, but he fails to disclose is a function of a surge of college edu whites so large that even with Trump's surge (which they failed to predict, I did not) Ds
@jerry_jtaylor@TheDemocrats dominated the high college edu districts and even picked up a new one in GA, where the right electoral strategy was implemented- one that tapped into solving the Bitecofer equation (% Dem relative to % Rep). I mean both AZ and GA FLIPPED. GA actually out-performed my expectations
1. The ONLY way to make the under 40 crowd change behaviors (absent coercion via gov action like a mask mandate-given Trump & the GOP have set a careless tone in concrete in the U.S.) is to start featuring the deaths of young people on local news, social media, & ads on TV.
2. These ads would need to present ONLY young people and highlight their deaths in ways that admittedly take their representation in the data out of proper context. BC right now, the under-40 crowd are driving the infection spread & they are doing it bc they believe that if they
3. get it- they'll likely get the asymptomatic or low-symptom kind. It ironic, bc a population that has a demonstrably shitty capability of assessing risk is suddenly really good at assessing it correctly. BC the Under-40 crowd have very, very good odds of the above, esp if they
1. Rem when @TheDemocrats took my advice, nationalized their strategy for their statehouse elections and rode neg partisanship referendum waves flipping control of lower chambers in NC, IA, MI, TX,& AZ to join with VA & end the GOP's 2009 Operation Red Meat maps?
2. That's right,. they totally flopped that by forcing everyone to run on healthcare and treating the whole of the Republican Party as if it's just another Sunday in the park when even at the state level, its clear the system is straining (as state leg Reps have spoken openly
3.about their intentions to violate the will of the voters, or fight for them. The point I'm trying to make, and I am truly grateful that now @mccaffreyr3 is speaking out to help me make it, is that the system is going to be tested and will strain here and that we will be tested.
1. I think school closures also dragged Ds down in congressional races. To be clear, they wouldn't in a functional democracy not following a herd immunity strategy & normalizing the indifference genocide of up to a half million of its citizens. That "conditional" is a necessary
2. component of the "pandemic backlash effect that we have in the U.S. other countries don't have sizable anti-mask movements, ones so large it impedes states like North Dakota who governor @DougForDakota has "led" them to a point where every single county in his large;y rural
3. state has been governed to "high" infection rates. He must feel so successful that liberty & freedom is so abundantly clear all around him! So yes, in a country that has normalized murdering via indifference its old, medical compromised & in the case of grandforksherald.com/newsmd/coronav…
1. The diff @kasie between El Paso & NYC though is that as @BetoORourke will tell you, the people of El Paso are being murdered by the extremism (and even worse, indiff) of the GOP in TX. Which, if TX Ds had made clear in the election instead of focusing on healthcare as directed
2. national Ds, by the D orgs, AND by the state party's consultants (whereas the advice I gave to nationalize the race, tie in Trump, & make it a referendum on the pandemic was ignored. Honestly, I thought my phone would ring. Even after being warned that @texasdemocrats were
3. heavily reliant on heavy @TheDemocrats strategy which is itself reliant on a dialed-in, consultant class heavy "strategy" that is out-dated, frankly. The candidates that enjoy the most success are those w the financial flexibility to go rouge & build their own turnout machines