"Environ le tiers des Québécois à qui on a attribué la cause du décès à la COVID-19 lors de la première vague seraient très probablement morts d’autres causes dans les semaines suivantes"

(Key points in English below.)

lapresse.ca/covid-19/2020-…
About a third of Quebeckers for whom their cause of death was attributed to covid-19 in the first wave would most likely have died from other causes in the following weeks, suggests a newly published demographic study by two HEC Montreal researchers.
Quebec has seen excess mortality between March and June: about 4,300 more deaths than usual for that period.

Shameless plug - see my thread here:

The data nevertheless shows 570 fewer than normal deaths linked to cancer and 280 fewer deaths than normal linked to heart disease.
Even if few autopsies were conducted and if there were other underlying causes of death, attributing these deaths to covid-19 corresponds to rules set out by the WHO.
The excess mortality in March-June was particularly marked in Quebec's CHSLD facilities (long-term care), which was 2.5 times the normal level. In B.C., in contrast, it was 60% higher than normal for the period and quickly subsided after measures were introduced.
Merci à @jhamel.

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

14 Nov
November 14 novembre

Weekly update for / Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Ontario/Quebec/Canada

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited. / Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario #COVID19Canada #covid19qc #covid19toronto ImageImageImageImage
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.) Image
However, Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death. Image
Read 37 tweets
8 Nov
Here's the seasonal pattern of influenza and pneumonia in Ontario.

Look familiar?
Hospitalizations for influenza and pneumonia peak at 27/100,000 in January and hit trough at 11/100,000.

Multiplying by 147 to adjust for Ontario's population, that would be a range of 1,617 in August to 3,969 in January.
Could covid simply be displaying its seasonality? If that's the case, this isn't a second wave; it's autumn.

Look at the trend of covid-linked hospitalizations below - keeping in mind that we didn't have mass PCR testing for covid last winter, but ramped it up in the spring.
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov
So why did Peel Region, including @BonnieCrombie, @patrickbrownont, and Peel's MOH Lawrence Loh, cancel Christmas?

What gives them the right to do this?

Is it because hospitals are full?

No.

Is it because the bodies are piling up?

No.

(thread...)

#COVID19Ontario
This is the situation in Peel Region.

330 deaths by or with covid-19 from a population of 1,381,739.

So clearly, a lot of "cases" (positive test results) but very few deaths relative to the size of this urban area.
What about hospitals?

Trillium Health Partners, which operates two hospitals in Mississauga and one close by in Toronto, reports a staggering... 33 patients confirmed positive with covid-19.

And only 8 of those 33 are in ICU.
Read 8 tweets
7 Nov
7 novembre – Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec

Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #covid19qc

November 7 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario
Canada - Covid-19 still presents a risk primarily to the elderly, not to children and hardly to working-age adults.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised.)
The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 70.9% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 51.2% of all deaths (all causes) in 2018.
Read 7 tweets
7 Nov
October 31 – Ontario weekly update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario
Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,209 (218 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 30.7% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19
The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 86 in ICU

- 49 in ICU on a ventilator
Read 23 tweets
7 Nov
31 octobre – Mise à jour hebdomadaire du Québec

Les données sont 100% publiques et officielles.

#COVID19Canada #covid19qc
Québec (population: 8,552,362):

Nombre total de décès liés à Covid-19: 6 403 (749 décès pour chaque million de personnes au Québec ou 0,07%).

22,5% de la population canadienne, mais 61,4% des décès liés à la covid-19 au Canada.
Les deux paramètres les plus importants à surveiller: les décès et hospitalisations aux soins intensifs.

77 hospitalisations aux soins intensifs en cours au Québec.
Read 10 tweets

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