Thread by @WilliamYang120

More on @dwnews with colleagues: Countering China's geopolitical ambitions will be a tough challenge for the @JoeBiden administration. Defense experts @TangAnZhu and @DerekJGrossman shared their views with me: dw.com/en/can-joe-bid…

China will likely remain at the top of the US foreign policy agenda as US President-elect Joe Biden begins choosing prospective members of his administration and organizes his transition to the presidency.

To counter China's geopolitical ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region, the Trump administration has tried to build strategic consensus among regional allies under the slogan of a "shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific."

However, Trump's transactional style of foreign policy has also caused traditional US allies like Japan and South Korea to question US commitment to defense treaties, as Trump would often complain about the cost of stationing US forces.

On Thursday, Biden called Japan's recently appointed premier, Yoshihide Suga, and spoke about the "severe" security situation in the region. Biden reaffirmed a "deep commitment to the defense of Japan," according to his transition team.

Biden also spoke with South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, and said the bilateral alliance was the "lynchpin of the security and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific region," said Moon's spokesman, adding that denuclearizing North Korea remains the top priority.

There is bipartisan consensus in the US that countering China in the Indo-Pacfic is central to American foreign policy. In 2015, the Obama administration's "rebalance to Asia" recognized that Asia was becoming the "world's political and economic center of gravity."

The rebalance was a series of policy points designed to refocus US assets from the Middle East to Asia and strengthen alliances, deepen partnerships and streamline trade with the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).

However, the Obama administration was unable to extract the US from US engagements in the Middle East and Europe. @TangAnZhu told DW this caused the US to lose focus in Asia.

The TPP was scrapped by the President Trump within days of his inauguration. Trump said he could get a "better deal," which has yet to materialize. As Obama's vice president, Biden will be under pressure to show how his administration will do things differently.

"The real challenge for Biden will be how are they planning to do it differently in Asia this time," Thompson said. "Many of the same people were involved in the rebalance to Asia strategy. How is their rhetoric going to be backed up by actions?" said Thompson.

Tony Blinken, deputy secretary of state during the Obama administration who worked on the pivot to Asia, is in the running for Biden's pick as secretary of state.

However, many things have changed geopolitically since the Obama administration, and it remains to be seen where Biden will prioritize US foreign policy.

"If there are any changes to the US Indo-Pacific strategy, they are much more likely to be stylistic over substantive," said @DerekJGrossman. He adds that building alliances to counter China will likely remain a top objective.

Biden will also face challenges in building alliances, as US allies walk a tightrope of deference and defiance towards China. "The dilemma of the alliance strategy is how do they incentivize or coerce allies into actually taking actions against China," said @TangAnZhu.

Drew told me that the Trump administration recognized that it would be difficult to develop an alliance-based strategy when it is not in allies' interest to confront China.

"The question is can Biden change that dynamic or not," said Thompson. "Maybe he can, but it will take some forceful diplomacy, pressure or coercion."

Russia and the Middle East also remain important foreign policy challenges for the US. Thompson said that the Biden administration needs to be clear about where the US will focus its foreign policy.

"It'll be a challenge for the future Biden administration to decide where they are willing to accept risks. They might have to put more pressure on NATO allies to do more burden-sharing in Europe...

... while focusing on building a stronger alliance network in Indo-Pacific to deal with China," Drew told me.

"I don't think having a strategy to align European allies against China is going to be more effective than aligning Southeast Asian allies against China," he added.

The incoming Biden administration will also be facing a more emboldened China, with the two previous administrations unable to get Beijing to budge or compromise its interests.

"The challenge the Biden administration will face is that China will set conditions for the cooperation between China and the US," Thompson said, adding Beijing wants to isolate Taiwan and for the US to downgrade its regional military alliances.

"These conditions often undermine the alliance-based strategy and challenge U.S. interests in the region," said Thompson, adding that there isn't any good strategy to get China to do anything other than what is in its own interests.

Returning to the strategy of balancing competition and cooperation, as was seen during the Obama era, will not be an effective way forward for the US, he added. "China is essentially going to design its own course and others will have to adapt," Drew said.