1. Chinese have built roads and can bring troops, A vehicles (fighting vehicles), arty much quicker to a place than we can. Terrain on their side is also easier. Pulling out both sides A vehicles is NOT the same
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2. Can we be certain we will know in time if Chinese come back ? Our UAV holdings and surveillance capabilities are less than China
3. Kailash Range positions give us great advantage in that sector. Chinese therefore want us to vacate but refuse to discuss Depsang
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4. Depsang intrusions are dnageorus. Estimates range from 80-200 sq km. Why will Chinese move back if we gift them what they want in Pangong, Spangur sector
5. Chinese are finding winter hard, rotating troops in 2 weeks whereas even in Siachen our tps stay for 3 months
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They are in a soup of their own making. What do we gain by giving Chinese a way out ?
Are they willing to even exchange maps which they have refused for 30 years ?
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If true, it is a serious mistake and let down. Capitulation from a strong position and completely unnecessary. Chinese are still entrneched in their intrusions at Depsnag, Y junction. That seems to have been conveniently forgotten
are on our side of LAC and critcial to defence of Chusul. Why are we bargaining them away ? What do we get in return ?
Nothing. We cannot patrol from F4-F8 now and we won't be allowed to in future. We will be pushed back to Chinese claim lines at F2-F3 Chinese have
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built a road to F4 plus habitat and defences. They can pull back to F8 but come back very quickly to man them and we will not be able to do anything. Will Chinese demolish all their construction between F4 and F8. If not we gain absolutely nothing but give away all leverage
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In this whole episode, the least discussed is our staying out of RCEP, BRI
Lets examine and see where we stand on a strategic, operational and tactical perspective now and what should be our next steps. What have we done well and where we need to improve a lot. Here goes
RCEP and BRI are two major Chinese initiatives to build a Chinese Economic and Military Power hegemony. The first is economic, trade control and the second is physical control of roads, commerce. This is basically East India Company 2.0 for 21st Century
India staying out
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has angered China because it poses a serious threat (if we ever get our act right) to their hegemony plans. GOI has shown great wisdom in not joining 👏
Their 'invasion' is to teach us a lesson and ensure world knows that messing with Company Sarkar has consequences
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Shawney, you have NO clue about military dynamics. You spent YO days as partying in peace postings n later as ADC to Govnr. You have no idea of war fighting, ratios, tactics, op art. We are in far superior position to Pak + have an edge over China. I explain...
Pak has 19 Armd, Mech, Inf Divs plus FCNA plus 3 Arty Divs. Of these they need to keep atleast 4 Divs oriented towards Iran and another 2-3 for internal pacification including in Balochistan. The majority of their forces are in Pakjab -13 Divs. Pak is split East-West by
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Indus. But Pakjab is split North West by Jhelum, Ravi, Chenab, Sutlej. Why is this important ?
Because we can trap majority of Pak Forces in Pakjab by smashing bridges on Pakjab rivers + hinder East West movement by smashing bridges on Indus
1. Dominating Spangur is critical to deny Chinese break out with mech formations via Spangur Gap. We cannot vacate our newly occupied positions unless Chinese retreat all the way back to Xinjiang and Tibet
2. Our positions on North Bank ridges also necessary
till Chinese completely vacate F4-F8 .Also imp to deny link up with Gogra
3. I don't see Chinese going back and it seems we are trying very hard to avoid any kinetic action and certainly war
4. Therefore we will have to maintain our positions + keep reinforcements in place
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till such time Chinese fully withdraw
5. You are right. Significant defence budget increase for all 3 services is critical. If not now, war will happen in 5-10 years. That is Chinese plan and declared 'war zone' concept - attack adversaries one by one. We are 100% next
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1. 15/16 June - #Galwan you changed troops, occupied high ground on a narrow pass, equipped yourselves with lethal weapons and launched an ambush on an unarmed party lead by Col Santosh Babu. He had come to negotiate....
Result - our troops snatched your weapons and launched a bayonet charge. We KIA 45-100 of your men, captured many officers. You know well that your men were shrieking with fear - so called shock troops
Ambush time, place, weapons of your choosing and yet you lost...badly
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2. Spangur 29/30 Aug - Your troops tried to take heights around Spangur but our troops outran them and took the heights not only around Spangur but right up to Rezangla - 30 km frontage. Your entire position in Chushul has been made untebable. You were thinking you would..
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1. We are on LAC heights (our perception 😉) 2. Chinese tps under pressure to dislodge but old
baseball bat drill won't work. They will need big numbers and will have to asslt with wpns. Local commanders have probably not relayed full situation to top
They may be purged if they tell Xi full extent of the problem
3. Warning shots are normally fired when en approaches defender. The attacker usually does not fire ''warning'' shots. We fired on 29/30th Aug to dissuade Chinese attackers
4. But we say China fired. Perfect 👏
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thats exactly how we should play this game. But for analysis of China's options, lets accept Chinese claim that India fired. China says their tps then stabilised the situation
Kaise bhai ? By disenaging ?
Put yourself in Chinese commander's shoes. What are his options
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