A brief update on our work with the sequencing of the White House #COVID19 outbreak. Since posting on Nov 1, groups from all over the US have shared an additional 2798 #SARSCOV2 viral genomes via @gisaid and additional connections have emerged. 1/9
This sequencing has revealed additional viruses circulating in Virginia and collected between Aug and Oct that fall alongside the WH lineage, as well as three viruses from Michigan collected in Oct that are closely related to sequences from the White House outbreak. 2/9
These three viruses from Michigan possess 1 differentiating mutation and the two White House-associated viruses also possess 1 differentiating mutation. A molecular clock analysis places their common ancestor in Aug or Sep. Interactive figure at nextstrain.org/community/blab…. 3/9
It's unclear if these viruses from Michigan represent an offshoot of the transmission chain or if they represent the geographic line of descent. Additional sequencing may continue to shed light on these origins. At this point, it's still hard to say much. 4/9
In the last few days a second WH-related cluster has emerged with 17 publicly announced cases reported between Nov 4 and Nov 11 (whcovidtrack.com/chief-of-staff…). 5/9
Sequencing cases from this second cluster could immediately distinguish between: 1. Ongoing transmission in the WH network throughout October 2. A second unrelated introduction event
6/9
These two scenarios have important implications for ongoing infection control procedures. We'd be happy to work with anyone at the @WhiteHouse Medical Unit to sequence further cases from the outbreak. 7/9
Or if there are any individuals with COVID diagnoses who are connected to this outbreak who want to participate in a research study, please get in touch. We are required to keep identifiable information completely confidential. In this case, please contact haarvi@uw.edu. 8/9
Lastly, I'd like to thank the Virginia Division of Consolidated Laboratory Services, the University of Michigan Clinical Microbiology Laboratory and the @lauringlab at the University of Michigan for sharing viral genomic data. 9/9
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The #COVID19 epidemic is rapidly growing throughout the US. What happens now? Here I try to make some predictions, but mostly try to explain how I think about the epidemic. 1/14
The US just reported ~170,000 cases in a day. However, there hasn't been a sudden increase in transmission. This is the same exponential growth process going on for weeks now. Rt has ticked up from a US average of ~1 in August to ~1.15. Data from rt.live. 2/14
This increase in Rt can be ascribed to seasonality of the virus. Seasonality of respiratory pathogens is (incredibly) not well understood but is thought to be due to a combination of indoor crowding and increased stability of viral particles in drier winter air. 3/14
After posting about sharply rising #COVID19 cases Friday, there were multiple replies to the effect of "but deaths aren't going up". As should be obvious to most at this point, (reported) deaths lag (reported) cases. This thread investigates. 1/8
There is a lag between when a case is diagnosed and when the individual may succumb to their disease and there is a further lag between date of death and when the death is reported. 2/8
Here, I compare state-level data from @COVID19Tracking for cases and deaths and find that a 22-day lag maximizes state-level correlations. 3/8
I know that everyone has been (justifiably) distracted by other things, but the #COVID19 epidemic in the US is looking pretty dire with 125,552 confirmed cases reported Friday by @COVID19Tracking. 1/10
Confirmed cases have continued to tick up across the US, though with the Midwest and Mountain West contributing to most of the recent increase. Data from @COVID19Tracking. 3/10
Separately, I wanted to address the question of "why do this?" with regards to sequencing of infections involved in the White House #COVID19 outbreak. 1/10
Although the origins of the White House outbreak were characterized as "unknowable", viral genome sequencing can offer important clues to how infections in a cluster are connected to each other and to the larger COVID-19 epidemic. 2/10
This technology is rapidly becoming a standard course of action for COVID-19 clusters of public health interest. This seems obvious, but we can use science to understand and track the spread of COVID-19. 3/10
We enrolled two individuals with exposures linked to the White House COVID-19 outbreak into an IRB-approved research study, collected nasal swabs and sequenced the SARS-CoV-2 virus in these swabs. 2/16
Importantly, these two individuals attested that they had no direct contact with each other in the days preceding their diagnoses and are independently linked to the White House COVID-19 outbreak. 3/16
Daily #COVID19 case counts are increasing in the US and we seem to hitting a third wave (or second surge if you'd prefer). Here I wanted to look at how case counts through time correlate across different states. 1/12
I start with a simple coloring to group states in the West (in red), the Southwest (in orange), the Midwest (in green), the Southeast (in blue) and the Northeast (in purple). Color ramp borrowed from @andersonbrito_. 2/12
Using data from @COVID19Tracking, I plot daily confirmed cases for each state since March as a stacked chart. The three crests are obvious (though not clear how large the third will end up being). Different regions are contributing to each wave to different degrees. 3/12