Thread by @RachelBitecofer

@jerry_jtaylor There is no one more directly responsible for the D's blown performance on the congressional map than Shor & his company Catalist, who convinced the principals at the @TheDemocrats to stick w their DEAD theory & strategy & even now, as it lies dead on the side of the road....

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats Not only is Shor unable to support his thesis beyond the "they fail to keep up proportionally" claim which, btw, is true, but he fails to disclose is a function of a surge of college edu whites so large that even with Trump's surge (which they failed to predict, I did not) Ds

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats dominated the high college edu districts and even picked up a new one in GA, where the right electoral strategy was implemented- one that tapped into solving the Bitecofer equation (% Dem relative to % Rep). I mean both AZ and GA FLIPPED. GA actually out-performed my expectations

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats bc I thought would likely manifest, w the Trump surge I expected among non-college whites, I had it as a toss-up starting back in Aug & it ended there w the revised modeling too. 1 more thing since I haven't gotten to seen you in awhile, the bifurcated results is an example of

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats strategic approach diffs. The congressional races- like I said, Bustos & the DNC are heavily bought into this dumb "issues based" strategy, but even worse, literally forbade their candidates from knocking doors due to the pandemic. I didn't know this until Labor Day, when I flew

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats down to TX to shoot my TX episodes. I just about died when I found out! The same was true at the DLCC & the Biden campaign. Total blanket ban! Field, knocking and actual face-to-face convo is 1 of the only things that show individual effects on voter behavior- and they completely

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats stopped! But the GOP, of course, WAS knocking. And it SUCKS that they then put Dem candidates & their campaigns in this position- but if your opponent knocks doors & you don't? Well, now you know what happens! Some D candidates did go rogue, using their own funds. More imp

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats over in the presidential map, the chairs of MI, WI, PA, AZ, anmd GA paid to knock doors out of their own coffers- & not just any doors, Bitecofer doors. Abrams doors. The doors of your own coalition. To make sure that come election day, the % Ds is close to the % Rs so you don't

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats get your ass kicked. BC when you need votes of Rs you are screwed. Does that mean you don't focus resources still on the persuasion baslet? Of course you do- but I argue you want to laser focus on the pure Is- why waste your resources on right-leaning Indies? I mean, if you're in

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats SC-1 or OK-5, both of which I figured would be tough, yeah you gotta go aggressive there, but in most districts, as in the state of GA if you turn out people who will cast ballots of Ds and dominate MoSuasion- as @jomalleydillon puts it- you win.

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats @jomalleydillon In any case, got some exciting work coming out on this with my team once the voter file gets updated. And my belief that even though the LP didn't cause a conversion effect- I think that bc they nationalized the messaging on the presidential side (and pushed the Biden campaign

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats @jomalleydillon to mirror some of the themes of their very effective ad strategies) LP should not be feeling anything but proud of their contribution. I think bc their ads tap into "mosuasion" and do the "stakes framing" that all GOP electioneering does (and I'm fighting the Shors of the world

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats @jomalleydillon to bring to the Democratic Party's electioneering approach) without LP, there would've been a huge messaging vacuum from March till about June that I think was critical. But the DNC/DCCC/DSCC/DLCC and their principal consultants that sell them shit like this article? The Congress

@jerry_jtaylor @TheDemocrats @jomalleydillon failure falls squarely on their shoulders. They should try learning from it.