Tweet

Kelly Brown

14 Nov, 9 tweets, 4 min read

1/ Other Coronaviruses (non-COVID19) vs. #COVID19 in Canada

Comparing %pos by week for past cold seasons vs. the 2019/2020 Novel Coronavirus season.

Three provinces: ONT, QUE, BC

I honestly don’t know how to interpret what I’m seeing but it’s eye popping to say the least...

2/ BC…

Appears to have had a normal cold season (other coronaviruses) in 2019/2020 (yellow line) compared to the prior three seasons.

#COVID19 arrives (dark black line, surges weeks 11-14), and declines (seasonally, it would appear).

3/ but Ontario and Quebec are way different…

4/ Ontario…

Where are the Other Coronaviruses in the ‘19/’20 season? (yellow line)

% pos does not rise as normally expected, and goes nowhere near the prior three seasons !

Material #COVID19 positives arrive again in week 11, and surge before declining (again, seasonally?).

5/ What about Quebec ?

Well, there is some surge in Other Coronavirus % positivity in late 2019, then it plateaus, and it never comes close to prior year peaks.

#COVID19 again arrives in ~ week 11, surges before declining (again, seasonally?).

6/ This is just the data. Other Coronavirus testing levels were not materially different through the 2019/2020 season.

I have no idea how the above should be interpreted, but the obv Q: why is Other Coronavirus % pos in Ont/Que so low prior to the “official” arrival of #COVID19?

7/ A brief data note: in week 30 (July 25th, 2020), the other coronavirus chart (published weekly) for Ontario appeared to be updated so as to “catch up” previous unreported positives (??). But *no changes* were made to the official data table. And no changes to the Quebec chart.

8/ Sources. All data from:
canada.ca/en/public-heal…

9/ Fascinating data. End Thread.

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

20 Oct

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1317186379483406337

1/ #COVID19 is having a significant impact on prevalence of other common respiratory pathogens, like influenza.

Globally, since COVID began, influenza cases are down * 98% * (see tweet-link below).

The Canadian data and implications are explored here🧵

https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1317186379483406337

2/ Guess what

Here in Canada, flu cases also *collapsed* when #COVID19 arrived

Since mid-April to today, lab-confirmed flu cases in Canada are: 154

Average of same the time-period in previous flu seasons?

*3,836*

(…despite increased flu testing)

3/ Here is an interesting visual

The 19/20 flu season (interrupted by #COVID19) vs. avg of ’16-‘19 flu seasons. # of cases and positivity % by week.

In 19/20, flu cases/positivity dive to near ZERO, whilst previous years the decline is (i) gradual, and (ii) never reaches zero.

Read 15 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

23 Sep

@ONThealth

1/ Spent the evening slicing and dicing the @ONThealth COVID19 case-by-case database. Found here: data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/con…

@ONThealth

2/ My goal was to see if I could glean anything from the data that could answer why rising case numbers are not resulting in material increases in new hospitalizations, and why new deaths are de minimis. @ONThealth

3/ We are seeing this phenomenon in many jurisdictions around the world (case explosions, deaths flatlined). The UK is one very good example, and Canada is experiencing the same.

Read 17 tweets

Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

31 Aug

– Valuation Musings

In my view, XPEL has “earned the right” to be valued using a DCF.

Its moat is well-documented, and evidenced by the numbers; hyper revenue growth rates, expanding operating margins, and very high and growing software-like returns on invested capital.

Henceforth, will likely always look expensive on trailing numbers. But if its moat is sustainable, for a “good” number of years to come, then its powerful combination of high growth with high ROIC means the value resides way, way out there [into the future].

The following tables summarize my DCF’s output for NPV/share under a [wide] range of potential future revenue/EBITDA growth scenarios, under various #’s of years prior to the point when a terminal value growth rate is then assumed (4.5% ‘r’ in all cases, 9% WACC).

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Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

30 Jun

Initiated a position today @ $.075/sh

BASIC THESIS:

Now a [more 'investable'] "levered equity stub" after closing $24m equity fin'g @ $.13/sh, repaying almost all punative/vigilante debt, w/ highly manageable maturities, breakeven+, and runway to reveal earnings power.

B/S is truly (and finally) significantly strengthened imo, w/ latest raise quite likely the last.

Mkt cap ~$50m & EV ~$175m, 71m warrants @.07/sh ($5m infusion), & 181m warrants @.16/sh ($30m infusion) would heal B/S even more, and could result in reflexive price recovery.

Interesting Friday filing on

MMCAP took 41% of the recent $0.13/unit 1-share/1-warrant bot deal (75m of 181m units/shares).

But, the filing disclosed only 75m warrants, and no associated shares (only legacy shares), potentially implying short sales before/after bot deal.

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Kelly Brown

@rubiconcapital_

1 Mar

/ - picks/shovels for IVF industry

CEO put on a 5yr clinic in measured value creation / capital allocation

Business building historically funded by shares/cash, but EBIT PER SHARE GREW. ROIC stable.

Now net cash, acquisitions can be funded w/balance sheet

Flywheel

Impressively, from '16 to '20:

Tangible capital grew 328% from $1.5m to $7.5m, while returns on tang cap maintained at +100% [good underlying business]

AND

Total capital grew 297% from $9m to $36m, while returns on tot cap maintained at 20-25% [good cap allocation]