1/ It's indescribable seeing results from NYC EMS ambulance runs showing how cardiac arrests skyrocketed during COVID

(I started a program to monitor these symptoms in real time--among the very first application of syndromic surveillance in public health, 2 decades ago)
2/ Every day, crews from @FDNY are called to 20 to 30 patients who have collapsed, and attempt resuscitation. Can you imagine?

It's never like the movies. Most patients die, ribs cracked. 75% of the time you never get a heart rate back.

On April 6, there were 305.

305.
3/ In the dry language of medical research the researchers describe the horrible statistics.

During the peak, most patients had nonshockable presenting rhythms of asystole and pulseless electrical activity. 92.2% of the time they called off the resuscitation without a pulse.
4/ The patients were those who you would expect to suffer complications from COVID.

Older patients (mean age 72)
High blood pressure and diabetes are common
But only 23% had a history of heart disease

And controlling for all that, twice as likely to be black or hispanic
5/ This is from COVID.

The authors discuss whether it could be from people delaying medical care, but that is an epidemic curve.

You might expect delayed care to have continued to take a toll after the outbreak peak at the end of March, but it fell just as rapidly as COVID did
6/ These deaths are part of why we UNDERcount deaths from COVID, as @WeinbergerDan has shown in his excess mortality analysis

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
7/ What is it going to take for us to take COVID seriously again?

Do we need to see ambulance crews overwhelmed with cardiac arrests in every city?

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More from @Farzad_MD

11 Nov
1/ I've been feeling more and more disengaged from COVID work, disillusioned with the growing realization that all the smart research and policy doesn't make a damn bit of difference

Not for the 1st time, I've seen that what I thought was an information problem is something else
2/ I so admire those public health Cassandras who've been unrelenting, continuing to beat the drum of science and policy for the past 9 months

repeating over and over again what must be done, as the cases and deaths mount, with no strategy in sight

tweets, interviews, articles
3/ It's perhaps no accident that they (and I) are "formers"

People who ran the agencies, who know the pain of the experts and scientists working inside, and are free to speak

CDC @DrTomFrieden
FDA @ScottGottliebMD
CMS @ASlavitt
FDA/CMS @DukeMargolis McClellan
WH @ZekeEmanuel
Read 10 tweets
10 Oct
1/ Policy makers: Wait, Isn’t quality of care better at large expensive health systems c/w independent practices?

Previous Research: Ummm no. But we can keep looking

@AHRQNews What if we look at high needs patients?

@RANDCorporation It’s ... worse?

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
2/ To test hypothesis that health systems provide better care to patients w high needs, diff in quality b/w system‐affiliated & nonaffiliated physicians

ED visits were significantly *different* in system‐affiliated (117.5 per 100) & nonaffiliated POs (106.8 per 100, P < .0001).
3/ I love how delicately the RAND researchers approach this in their conclusion: “Health systems may not confer hypothesized quality advantages to patients with high needs.”

(Then why do they get paid so much more?)
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
1/ How can we reduce Medicare spending without harming patients?

What we do @AledadeACO is transformative, but hard.

There are some low hanging fruit. This was one of them

Prior auth for repetitive, scheduled non-emergency ambulance transportation

cms.gov/newsroom/press…
2/ When CMS first released their public use files, I ran some analyses looking for aberrations-

One thing that jumped right out was...Repetitive non-emergency ambulance runs- often for the same person going back and forth to dialysis 3 times a week.

3/ In my blog @BrookingsInst back in 2014 I wrote:

"Medicare and law enforcement officials will need to create new processes for dealing with a potential flood of outlier reports from amateur sleuths like me."

But prevention >> fraud enforcement

brookings.edu/blog/up-front/…
Read 12 tweets
14 Sep
1/ Value-based care works. MSSP saved $2.6 billion dollars with $1.2 billion in net savings to Medicare, matching CBO’s savings expectations for 2019

Physician-led ACOs again out-performed hospital ACOs. What we need now is to help more practices participate in these models
2/ @AledadeACO is proud to be the largest, most successful nationwide enabler of physician-led ACOs, delivering better care at lower cost for >340,000 Medicare beneficiaries, saving Medicare and American taxpayers nearly $180 million in unnecessary health care spending last year!
3/ Here's the list of the physician-led ACOs we are supporting, and our performance data.

* It doesn't matter if you're urban, rural, suburban, or in which state

* It gets better. The longer you work, the more the chances of success

* More risk = Higher rewards
Read 10 tweets
8 Sep
1/ Some more peeks at age-specific COVID symptom trends from FB/CMU surveys at state level.

Here's Massachusetts and Maine

The rates are VERY LOW- the Northeast is the only oasis of green in the country on COVIDExitStrategy.org

but is there a worrisome trend developing? Image
2/ Look at the y axis for these states- GA/SC/TN/KY

Unlike MA/ME, they are persistently over 0.8% CLI rate , and heading thew wrong direction, including among the older age group.

Rising deaths will follow. Image
3/ The y axis jumps again-

MS and LA are very high, especially in youngest age group, but also 55+

They are also among the highest in test positivity.

We need to quench the outbreak in these states. If governments won't, then schools, businesses, families have to act Image
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
1/ Why do I believe that COVID symptom survey data at SCALE could be a meaningful addition to the public health armamentarium?

Let me give you a glimpse- and I hope that you will be inspired to do your own analysis and join the symptomchallenge.org (and win the $50,000 prize)
2/ Background on the symptom survey- and how it might address some of the weaknesses of our existing public health surveillance methods is here:

3/ People who use facebook have been opting into these COVID-related surveys since April- at an unbelievable pace.

I ran a 10,000-person neighborhood random-digit survey in NYC for many years. I was very proud of it.

There are 8.8 MILLION survey responses in this dataset 🤯
Read 24 tweets

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