Share this page!

Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
Twitter logo
15 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The thing is, it’s most futile to try and figure out why any individual member lost and what specific messaging dragged them down when the presidential is what it is. FL-26 went from Clinton +16 to Trump +6. That’s why DMP lost, not because of any ads Giménez or the GOP ran.
So the pertinent question, at least for this race (and FL-27, though that race has its own quirks) isn’t why did DMP lose, it’s why did Democratic support collapse in South Florida?
South Florida is pretty unique — we can’t generalize what happened there to explain Democrats’ losses nationwide. But to say that DMP is wrong about what cost her the seat because of a few tv ads run against her and not take into account the overall environment is a mistake.
If anything, DMP — who, far from being a centrist, supported the GND and made climate change a focus of her runs — over-performed against a top tier challenger (the Cuban-American mayor of Miami-Dade County) and in a bad environment. She lost by 3, Biden lost by 6.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jacob Rubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JacobRubashkin

Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
16 Nov
Reading through this @J_Insider interview with Congressman-elect Madison "Face of the new GOP generation" Cawthorn and it looks like Tommy Tuberville isn't the only one who needs history lessons. Image
"Jesus is kind of a good guy" is 99.9% something that an uninterested Jewish person told Madison Cawthorn to get him to stop trying to convert them. Image
Perhaps Cawthorn's attempts to commune with his district's Jewish community have been unsuccessful not because services are online, but because he keeps on trying to convert them! Image
Read 4 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
9 Nov
It's ancient history but the original impetus for appointing Kelly Loeffler, outsider Atlanta businesswoman & WNBA team owner, was because she could appeal to the increasingly moderate Georgia electorate better than the too-Trumpy Doug Collins.
Loeffler and Perdue are clearly trying to thread a needle. With Trump making baseless claims of election fraud the central GOP message, they can't distance without alienating the voters they need either. But they also run risk of depressing turnout. It's a tough spot to be in.
Read 4 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
5 Nov
A brief thread on Georgia runoff elections -- may have something much longer on all this in next issue but wanted to get some thoughts down (thread 1/x):

Georgia is the only state where general elections for federal office are subject to an absolute majority requirement.
If no candidate receives 50%+1 votes, the top-two vote getters advance to a January 5 runoff. This year, there will be at least one Senate runoff in Georgia, in the special election to replace Sen. Isakson. Democrat Raphael Warnock won 33% of the vote, Sen. Loeffler 26%.
There may also be a runoff in the regular US Senate election, where Sen. David Perdue is in danger of falling below 50% and being forced into a runoff with Democrat Jon Ossoff.

The two elections would happen simultaneously.

This system has been in place since the mid-1960s.
Read 19 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
3 Nov
Signing off until I absolutely have to be back on this evening, but wanted to take a moment to shout out a few folks who've been indispensible the past few months (thread 1/x):

@JMilesColeman, @NilesGApol, @SenhorRaposa, whose maps and insights have been so helpful...
.@grace_panetta, @baseballot, @JessicaHuseman, and @geoffreyvs for owning the voting beat and providing clarity on the Byzantine mechanics of voting and election administration...

@ZachMontellaro for never missing an FEC report, @daveweigel for never losing sight of Waukesha Co.
.@coleleiter, @ChrisPack716, @M_McAdams, @caitleg, @zhunterDC, @laurenvpass, @rachelgirwin, @jackpandol and @JJHunt10 for not ignoring my calls and emails even when I just want to ask what the odds of a Democratic upset in South Dakota are...
Read 6 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
21 Sep
Now here's an ad for you: Sen. Kelly Loeffler's new spot is all about how she's "more conservative than Attila the Hun," and includes an actor portraying a grunting Attila who delivers orders to, among other things, "eliminate the liberal scribes."
Again, this is the senator whose initial appointment last year was greeted with much punditry about how she'd appeal to moderate women in the Atlanta suburbs who were drifting away from the GOP and turning Georgia purple.

Now she's comparing herself favorably to Attila the Hun.
It underscores what a missed opportunity the special election could be for Democrats. Collins and Loeffler are both running so far to the right, there's a whole swath of potential voters in the middle up for grabs. If Stacey Abrams had run and cleared the Democratic field...
Read 4 tweets
Jacob Rubashkin Profile picture
10 Sep
Just a boatload of new Senate polls from AARP done by a mix of Democratic and GOP firms, showing tight races up and down the ticket.

(In Georgia's special, Loeffler is at 24%, Collins is at 20%, Warnock is at 19%, and Lieberman is at 10%)
What I take away from this is just how many nailbiters there might be on election night. This is 9 races all within 5 points! (And it doesn't include KS, SC, AK, TX, which could also be close)

For comparison, in 2018 there were 6 races decided ≤5 (FL, AZ, TX, WV, MT, NV).
In 2016, there were 5 races decided by 5 points or less (NH, PA, NV, MO, WI)
In 2014 there were 5 (VA, NC, CO, AK, NH)
In 2012 there were 4 (ND, NV, AZ, MT)
In 2010 there were 6 (IL, CO, PA, AK, WA, WI)
In 2008 there were 4 (MI, AK, OR, GA)
In 2006 there were 4 (VA, MT, MO, TN)
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @JacobRubashkin