Pinduoduo recently launched Duo Duo Maicai, which lets customers pick-up online orders from local shops. It was all analysts talked about on its Q3 earnings call last week and its stock jumped 30% the following two days.

Quick thread:
A pick-up ecommerce model pools multiple last mile delivery legs into one trip. 20 orders becomes just one delivery.

This lowers logistics costs significantly, which unlocks ecommerce for lower priced products, new behaviors, and makes it more accessible for low income consumers
A pick-up model also drives foot traffic to local shops. It's not a stretch to think one day we'll will bid on ecommerce pick-up traffic like digital ads.

An ad network like Pinduoduo's spanning manufacturers, consumer app, and in-person trips will likely be very, very valuable.
Picking up an online order seems counterintuitive, but it can fit into most consumers' day (and shifts the cost) if done correctly.

It's also a new channel to compete against incumbents as most ecommerce platforms don't have networks of local businesses serving as pickup points.
Anyone who wants to compete will have to blitz scale supply.

The pick-up model will likely be copied, but the best locations will not only be convenient for consumers, they may also lower CAC by driving additional word of mouth downloads and usage.
Wish (US), Snackpass (US), Pinduoduo (China), Shihuituan (China), and Facily* (Brazil) are just a few platforms starting to build out pick-up networks for general ecomm, restaurants, and groceries.

Going to be fun watching the pick-up model play out!

* @GeltVC portfolio company

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More from @TurnerNovak

22 Aug
Stitch Fix is likely a $100b company within 10 years. Quick thread:
Stitch Fix owns a direct channel to recommend and ship products to 3.5m users (growing 20%/yr). Many are caught up in Pinduoduo’s "social commerce" model, but the real beauty is its ability to directly influence demand and thus optimize its operations and supply chain accordingly
Due to its understanding of exactly what customers want (aka what they will purchase) and direct influence over customer demand, Stitch Fix can essentially sell whatever products are best for its business*

*caveat that this should always align with what’s best for the customer
Read 13 tweets
22 Jul
Snap Q2 earnings:

- 239m DAUs, up 10m in Q2 (4% QoQ, 18% YoY)
- $1.9b TTM revenue, Q2 up 17% YoY (32% thru July 19th)
- Implied 4.7b snaps sent per day, 20 per user (highest ever, growing 2x faster than DAUs)
- Time watching Snap Shows and AR playtime growing 2x faster than rev
Snap Q2 usage metrics:

- DAU’s open 30x per day (up from 25 in Q3 ‘18)
- DAU growth smooth every month in Q2
- Android rebuild in 2019 drove 37% You RoW DAU growth
- India users up 100% YoY
- Thinks Snapchat's user opportunity is 2b (at 239m DAU's today)
Snap Q2 product reach:

Users engaging with AR: 188m DAU’s
Discover: 100m MAU’s (probably much higher)
Snap Map: 200m MAU's
Snap Games: 100m unique players
Snap Kit: 150m MAU's
Read 16 tweets
20 Jul
The first batch of Snap Minis launched today. This is an early step in Snap's app ecosystem that will help almost every company that uses the internet to acquire and retain customers.

Quick thread:

mashable.com/article/snap-m…
If you're unfamiliar, Snapchat is used by over 88 million people in North America per day. The total time spent in the app by all Snapchat users in the US is nearly identical to Instagram.

👀The US is where IG, valued at ~$200 billion, makes most of its money
Initially, Snap Minis are access through the chat as seen in these pics ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
23 Jun
I actively started writing on Substack in May and this week I'll cross 3,000 subscribers. Here's an update on:

- the strategy I used to break into VC
- what I’ve learned so far
- how I’m thinking about writing and investing moving forward
Living in Michigan, Twitter has been essential. The playbook I initially used was:

- tweet and go deep on differentiated insights
- respond to everyone
- reach out to people with <10k followers I thought were undervalued
- hop on too many last minute flights
I didn't have the traditional VC background. I grew up going to food banks, went to a school no one's heard of, never worked in tech, and I had $0 to angel invest.

To build a track record, I made two fantasy VC portfolio's. h/t @jtriest for the idea!

turner.substack.com/p/turners-fant…
Read 11 tweets
27 May
A TikTok clone called Zynn suddenly appeared at the top of the US App Store today.

It looks like a giant referral pyramid scheme, but also may be getting bankrolled by one of TikTok's biggest rivals in China, which just raised $2 billion from one of its OTHER rivals.
Zynn, which just released on Android yesterday, has been climbing the iOS charts for two weeks. It just hit #1 this morning.
The UI is essentially a dumbed down TikTok.

It looks like they ripped most of the initial videos too - most accounts are not from one creator, but related to a specific theme. The dates are also weird, some videos have been around since Feb/March.
Read 14 tweets
21 May
I wrote deep dive on how TikTok suddenly became the most culturally significant product in the world. It rode the tailwinds of AirPods and memes to reach over 1 billion DAU’s and is now the best way to create and consume video on mobile.

Some takeaways:

turner.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-…
TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, is one of the fastest growing companies of all time. Most of its estimated ~$16-20 billion in 2019 revenue came from China, and most of it wasn't even from TIkTok.

Using Snap and Facebook as comps, ByteDance is likely worth over $200 billion.
It's likely TIkTok now captures more total time spent by US users than Instagram.

When copying Snapchat stories, IG failed to capture the greater opportunity by copying the format exactly, even though it lacked the messaging constraint that originally defined Snapchat Stories.
Read 7 tweets

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