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16 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Covid lockdowns appear to reduce suicide rates

Suicide rates decreased during the lockdown in Victoria, Australia (paradoxically despite self-reported levels of depression increasing??)

Suicides (and other deaths) have also decreased in Peru:
Victoria chart is from @sometimes_data — thanks!

Who else has data for other countries?
Suicide rates have also decreased in Massachusetts during lockdowns:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

h/t @binaryanalogue
This study found "no evidence of a rise post-lockdown" in suicide rates across England.

However "these findings do not rule out higher figures in some areas"

documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?D…

h/t @binaryanalogue
Suicides dropped during the level 4 lockdown in New Zealand according to the Chief Coroner

nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-co…

h/t @thereal_truther

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More from @zorinaq

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
18 Nov
I dusted off my COVID-19 model (that predicted the Florida July wave) & applied it to Sweden

After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April

Hard to believe?

1/n Image
Specifically: by 25 December we will see Sweden has recorded 100 deaths/day around 11 December

(due to reporting delays, it takes up to 2 weeks past a given date to have a complete count of deaths on this date: )

2/n
My model is formally described in outbreak.flashpub.io/pub/method-of-…

It predicts deaths from cases alone, but let me explain in layman's terms how it works...

3/n
Read 16 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
25 Oct
͏@VoidSurf1 wrote a cool thread on Sweden excess deaths over the last few centuries. At first sight, his analysis seems correct... But there is a fatal flaw.

1/n
You can find his analysis here:


2/n
Despite the mortality data for 2020 being preliminary, he took great precautions to make it as accurate as possible. Good👍

Note how it is apparent that the month of April alone had 2000 excess deaths.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
24 Oct
COVID deaths & hospitalizations always lag cases. The lag has been demonstrated, is often 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 than a month, and its timing can be predicted accurately (I have done it.) The #casedemic folks are just, well, wrong.

A thread explaining the lag with real-world examples.

1/n Image
I will show what causes the lag, and how I can predict it accurately. First, there are multiple causes behind it:

#1 clinical
#2 reporting
#3 age prevalence

I will explain these causes one by one

2/n
Lag #1 is the most obvious: clinically the mean infection-to-death time is 22.9 days (see pg 4: static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1…)

So at minimum deaths will lag cases by a little over 3 weeks

Similarly, infection-to-hospitalization is 1-2 weeks

3/n Image
Read 31 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
27 Sep
Excited to share this new COVID modeling script:

It applies various age-stratified IFR estimates to calculate the expected overall IFR in a given country. It's based on demographics (countries population pyramids): github.com/mbevand/covid1…

Many interesting findings—read on

1/n
First off, I use five different sources estimating the age-stratified Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID-19:

1. ENE-COVID
2. US CDC
3. Verity et al.
4. Levin et al.
5. Gudbjartsson et al.

If you know of more sources, let me know and I'll add them to my script

2/n
So, what do we find?

The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to 2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.

3/n
Read 9 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
20 Sep
Lockdowns work.

Nearly all studies suggest that is the case:

1-nature.com/articles/s4158…
2-nature.com/articles/s4158…
3-science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
4-thelancet.com/journals/lance…
5-medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
6-arxiv.org/abs/2004.06098
7-nber.org/papers/w27091
8-nber.org/papers/w26906

1/n
9-ftp.iza.org/dp13262.pdf
10-medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

And my own analyses:
11-
12-
13-

2/n
Some studies are inconclusive:

Eg. people often incorrectly quote the abstract of thelancet.com/journals/eclin… but the authors write the results are in fact inconclusive. See my comment at

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
9 Sep
Observations about Sweden:
• They are far from herd immunity:
• Social distancing is what keeps cases low right now:

So, a #prediction: *if* they relax social distancing too much they will be hit by a second wave of rising cases
Some countries also far from herd immunity have been able to keep cases close to zero thanks to social distancing, mass testing...

South Korea went nearly 6 months without a 2nd wave

Perhaps Sweden will hold out 6 months. We don't know *when* but we know a 2nd wave is possible Image
Covid cases jump +57% in Stockholm county: 526 this week, compared to 334 the week before

"The Stockholm region sees signs that the spread of infection is increasing in the county."

Almost like there's no herd immunity! #WhoCouldHaveGuessed?🤔

dn.se/sthlm/sjukvard… Image
Read 5 tweets

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