As a Stanford University alumnus, I am appalled at @ScottWAtlas's defense of herd immunity, and disappointed at @Stanford's response. But the nuances are important to get right. Thread:

[1/
First, @ScottWAtlas. The @washingtonpost reported his herd immunity position. The quick idea: (a) It's impossible to stop the virus, (b) it doesn't kill that many people anyway, (c) Sweden has succeeded letting it run, (d) lockdowns are too expensive
[2/

washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
(a) It's impossible to stop the virus... except for all the places that have succeeded

[3/
(b) It doesn't kill that many people.
This is comparing #COVID19 against total ANNUAL deaths for other major causes. If we add 2k deaths/day until Dec 31st, we'll get close to 340k deaths
(c) Sweden has succeeded letting it run...
Sweden, which does more than @ScottWAtlas suggests, including limits to social gatherings to 8ppl.
(d) Yes! @ScottWAtlas is right. Lockdowns are too expensive. It's all the other measures that are crucial: test-trace-isolate, masks, fences... The lockdowns should not be the go-to tool, only a stop-gap solution to do everything else right.
tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-th…
Unfortunately, @ScottWAtlas doesn't support these other measures. He just wants people to catch it.

nytimes.com/live/2020/10/1…
That makes @ScottWAtlas dangerous to tens of thousands of Americans, who might die because of his advice. It's also why Stanford's response is inadequate.
[9/14]
When tens of thousands of lives are at stake, you should not stop at saying "I don't endorse this person." If you really disagree with him, you need to condemn his words energetically.

But don't fire him.
[10/14]
Free speech is a cornerstone of higher education. People should not face life-altering consequences for speaking their minds. Otherwise, they will stop speaking up, we will lose variety of opinions, and it will only radicalize ppl.
[11/14]
The pbm is not @ScottWAtlas defending Herd Immunity. It's the White House. It would have found another talking head to support their views.
[12/14]
However, it is not the only member of @Stanford promoting poor science to keep the economy open.

[13/14]
@Stanford, the world is looking at you, but we can barely hear your voice. Speak up.
[14/14]
Forgot to mention this. Not only is @ScottWAtlas promoting doing nothing at the federal level. If only. He is pushing people to actively disobey state laws in very questionable terms.

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More from @tomaspueyo

18 Nov
Great news this week:
- Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective
- Moderna's vaccine 94.5% effective
- Immunity to #COVID lasts (unless the virus mutates enough, still unknown)

How should this change our decisions in countries like the US? Thread

nytimes.com/2020/11/17/hea…
One of the key arguments of Herd Immunity apologists like @ScottWAtlas or Anders Tegnell is that you can't stop the virus. That means it only stops killing people when 50%-80% of the population has caught it (66% in Manaus).
nature.com/articles/d4158…
If it had taken us 5 years to get a vaccine, it might have made sense: it might be too hard to control the virus this long. But now we can guess that by mid-late 2021, enough ppl might be vaccinated to stop it.
Read 7 tweets
17 Nov
BREAKING: Sweden limits gatherings to 8 ppl.
thelocal.se/20201116/break…
[1/
This time, it's the law.
[2/4]
I applaud the Swedish government. I think it will help — although I'm not sure it will be enough
[3/4]
Read 4 tweets
12 Nov
Theory. Let’s call it “Lone Urban Success Paradox” or LUSP:
“Cities with an extremely successful industry are more likely to be politically mismanaged.”

Why?
[1/
1. The best workers in the local workforce will gravitate towards this aspirational industry. Politics are uninteresting in comparison: much less career potential
2. The local government is flush with money by milking the world-class industry. It becomes profligate and wasteful.
Read 8 tweets
9 Nov
Translations have started coming for our last article, The Swiss Cheese Strategy. Today, German, French and Spanish!

German here:
medium.com/contentist-de/…
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov
Latest article:
tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-th…

Now that Joe Biden is president & the EU has failed again, the West is open to learn how to dance.

Here's how they should do it.

[1/
One of the main issues in managing the #coronavirus is that there are so many things to do that govs don't know what they should or shouldn't do. It's simple.


[2/
There are 4 layers of defense against #COVID19
1. Keep infections out
2. When they do come in, prevent them from meeting others
3. When they do meet others, prevent them from infecting them
4. When that happens, identify and neutralize those infections

[3/
Read 15 tweets
7 Nov
Theory on the US urban–rural divide in voting for Dems vs GOP:

Urbanites interact with a lot of different strangers all the time. That means they want regulations to address the new coordination pbms that constantly emerge.

[1/
They also see +ppl different from them all the time, so they empathize with their plights, and are + interested in helping them.

These 2 facts mean they want + regulation & +care of minorities.

Hence +demand for regulation and social justice
[2/
Conversely, rural dwellers tend to interact with mostly the same social circles, usually of the same ethnic group, so they don’t experience other groups’ plights, and don’t empathize with them.
[3/
Read 8 tweets

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