A few years back when I read Christopher Hedges’ “War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning” - which is about the war spirit that envelops and takes over societies in a war - I immediately thought of politics, where something similar happens. 1/
Most anyone who has worked on a campaign has at some point experienced a version of this - where you come to believe that your opponent is capable of anything. Stealing yard signs, violating norms, etc. 2/
Worse, in that war-like moment, it’s easy to get lulled into conspiracy theories. And it’s easy to get pulled into really hating the other side. 3/
But the magnitude of what is happening to some of the people involved with the Trump campaign seems to take all that and go to another level. 4/
Now, I know that there are those who say that no, no, they are merely being disingenuous and should know better. But it feels like more than that - that some people - including people who by all accounts are competent professionals - have drifted to a seriously bad place. 5/
And that’s scary. Because in the normal world - say, a hotly contested primary fight - there eventually comes a reset. But I worry that in our world, which is being polarized for other reasons, that reset, that pause may be really hard to achieve. 6/
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Having watched a fair amount of political coverage this cycle, one thing that stands out is how few Latino commentators & analysts there were (ditto Asians - but the Latino absence is particularly notable). 1/
To be sure, there were occasional Latino/-a operatives or activists on as guests. But not many - and mostly from Florida.
And really no regular analysts or commentators or reporters with deep experience with the Latino community or issues. 2/
Given the increased diversity of the country, it seems like a huge miss and blind spot - and something to do better on for 2024 because the country is only going to get more diverse. Increased diversity, in fact, is one of the giant stories of this decade. 3/
Kamala Harris won’t be the first VPOTUS born after the Immigration Nationality Act of 1965 (she was born in 1964).
But nonetheless this feels like a milestone in many ways - the beginning of the political coming of age for the diverse post-1965 generation. #Election2020
And not just for Democrats - I suspect Nikki Haley - a true child of the 1965 Immigration Act - will run for president in 2024 and that you will see children and grandchildren of the post-1965 wave of immigrants start to make their mark in many political areas. #Election2020
(Yes, yes, I know there was Bobby Jindal but he kind of haplessly flamed out early)
A term for #ElectionNight: "Dummymander" - a gerrymander that fails because of demographic or political changes (or both) not expected by the mapdrawer, something we're likely to see a fair bit of tonight in places like Texas. #txlege#fairmaps#Election2020
To be clear, this decade's TX gerrymander was pretty durable, successfully locking out Ds for most of the decade after 2011. But Texas is growing so fast & becoming more diverse so fast, it started failing in 2018. #txlege#fairmaps#Election2020
In the TX House, Rs drew a map to try to lock in a supermajority of 101 seats, which required spreading R voters among a lot of districts. Now, there's a good chance they will lose control of the chamber as a result of demographic & political shifts. #txlege#Election2020
A look at Texas turnout by county crossed against the number of registered voters. The suburban counties clearly show up as rocking it this year & there is also strong performance in the big urban counties. But a lot of variation for smaller counties. #txlege#Election2020
Oh, the outlier with super high turnout? That's McCulloch Co. in the Edwards Plateau, which the Texas SoS has at 92.5% turnout (not sure if that is a data error or if they are just really pumped). #txlege#Election2020
The state's lowest turnout as of the end of early voting is Hudspeth Co. in West Texas near El Paso, where just 26.8% of voters have voted. #txlege#Election2020
🚨💥🚨💥The 9.7 million votes cast in Texas so far are the most in any Texas election in history - and 743k more than the 8.97 million votes cast by Texans in 2016 (when the final turnout was 59.4%).
A revised thread 🧵 with a few thoughts on where Texas turnout could end up. I now think the most likely number is somewhere between 11.3 million and 11.6 million. But it still could be higher. Here’s my thinking. #txlege#Election2020 1/
Right now, my guess is that when polls close today, the Texas early vote will be about 9.6 million, of which about 7.74 million (81%) will be in the big 30 counties, with about 1.86 million votes from the smaller 224 counties. #txlege#Election2020 2/
In 2016, the Election Day vote in the big 30 counties was 29% of the early vote. In 2018, it was 35%.
But this year, of course, is different, both because of the pandemic & because voter energy, so my guess is that the E-Day vote is a fair bit smaller. #txlege#Election2020 3/