Thread by @DrSimEvans

++NEW++

Boris Johnson 10point UK plan for "green industrial revolution" is out

by 2030
🚗petrol/diesel ban
🌬️40GW offshore
🔋"aim" for 5GW hydrogen
🏭4 CCS clusters

++
⚛️£ for big/small nuclear
🏠heat pump target, retrofit £
++more

Is it a lot? ✅
Enough for net-zero? ❌

1/

So how has UK been doing vs climate goals?

The story in two charts:

✅ CO2 down 1/3 in a decade
❌ off track against future carbon targets

Why?

UK ditched coal power but made little progress on transport, buildings etc etc

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-e…

2/

There's been a growing "policy gap" between where UK is heading vs where it needs to be on climate

Basically cos UK hasn't had a credible attempt at a plan for years

In latest govt projections, the gap grew again & was larger than ever…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

3/

…and the policy gap to net-zero is even bigger, because current 2030 target was set on a path to 80% cut by 2050, rather than 100%

As COP26 host that is…not a good look

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-e…

4/

Enter Johnson's 10-point plan

As press releases go, it's v detailed (pics)

A lot has been trailed to press (link)

But there is new detail + £4bn of new cash

(PR says £12bn but includes old money)

This not a policy doc tho – white paper still due

carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/uk…

5/

Let's run through the big stuff:

2030 ban on new petrol/diesel car sales is 10yrs earlier than originally planned

Widely briefed to press but still a big deal

UK now earliest major mkt?*

thedriven.io/2020/11/12/the…

*am not clear on status of India's 2030 target?

6/

A 2030 ban is in line with @theCCCuk advice, which said 2032 at the latest

CCC also said phaseout would save consumers £££ and earlier ban = bigger savings

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-the-u…

7/

But @theCCCuk suggested the 2030 ban should be paired with a rising mandate for carmakers to sell zero-emission vehicles

There's no sign of that in 10pt plan

(Plan also allows hybrids to be sold until 2035, w conditions TBC)

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

8/

Next up, 40GW of offshore wind by 2030

This was an election pledge for Johnson's Conservatives and already been adopted as govt policy

But again, it's a big deal

It'd be enough to supply ~half of current UK demand

carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…

9/

Big challenges to getting 40GW offshore wind built and will need to massively ramp up rate of installations

@AuroraER_Oxford has a handy chart:

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…

10/

What a success story for offshore wind, with prices down to £40/MWh for projects opening mid-2020s, effectively delivering "negative subsidy"* electricity that will pay back to consumers

*this a bit contentious but regardless, it's pretty cheap

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…

11/

Next, we have hydrogen

Plan has "up to £500m" of which £240m to help aim for 5GW of production capacity by 2030

(not clear if that's for "green" or also "blue" H2)

+ big H2 heating pilots (<10s of 1,000s of homes)

👀 @CarbonBrief big explainer on H2 coming next week

12/

(as an aside, this is a hefty wedge of cash for hydrogen but it's also a long way from what you might have expected if you were reading some of the breathless media coverage… I won't link any here but 🤷)

13/

Plan also has target for heat pumps, the other major way to heat homes without fossil fuels

🏠Targets 600,000 installed per year by 2028

Current rate is 26,000 so that's a 23x increase (!)…

…but @theCCCuk says need closer to 1.5m by 2030 (!!)

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

14/

On topic of homes, plan adds £1bn for energy efficiency upgrades next year and extends the Green Homes Grant for another 12mths (lucky as so far few have been able to access it – I know it's hard from personal exp)

theguardian.com/environment/20…

15/

To recap on efficiency, it's been a gaping hole in UK climate plans since David "cut the green crap" Cameron slashed budget for efficiency upgrades in 2013

Tory manifesto pledged to spend £9bn

So far, with new £1bn, it's committed £4bn (I think?)

carbonbrief.org/coronavirus-tr…

16/

On nuclear, Johnson's plan significantly less revealing than you might have expected given all the briefing about "green light" for Sizewell C etc

This will run and run…

But plan does give £525m to "help develop" large, small & "advanced" reactors

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

17/

Quick recap on nuclear

* Govt says new nuclear "required" for net-zero
* Big modelling study says lots of new nuclear is "low regrets", assuming it gets cheap
* @NatInfraCom says don't commit to more than 1 more by 2025

(links next tweet)

carbonbrief.org/analysis-does-…

18/

Modelling study supporting lots of new nuclear

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1306894368826105856

NIC latest

nic.org.uk/publications/n…

19/

On small / advanced nuclear, govt was already supporting so this is a bit more of the same

gov.uk/government/pub…

20/

There was press briefing last month suggesting govt ££ for Rolls Royce SMR plans. No sign of that so far…

ft.com/content/d7016b…

21/

CCS next:

Govt wants 4 clusters by 2030 to capture cumulative 10MtCO2, so I guess ~1-2MtCO2/yr in 2030

@theCCCuk says CCS a "necessity" for net-zero & 75-150MtCO2/yr in 2050 (pic)

theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

22/

The 10point plan adds £200m funding for CCS to existing £800m, which means we're back to the £1bn level promised by UK govt way back in <checks notes> 2010

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

23/

Back even further, 1st UK CCS plant was due to have been operating in, er, 2014

Back then idea was to support continued coal power

Now it's industrial clusters, hydrogen & maybe gas power

Wonder where we'll be in another 6yrs…

interactive.carbonbrief.org/how-uk-transfo…

24/

I'll end without going through all the other parts of the 10point plan, as it's late + they've mostly been pre-briefed

Meanwhile, here is Johnson himself on the plan

ft.com/content/6c1126…

25/

We know there is more to come from this govt

* spending review next Weds
* transport decarb plan
* decision on Sizewell/Wylfa
* energy white paper (Dec?)
* Treasury net-zero cost review
* UK NDC towards Paris climate deal (12 Dec?)

etc

26/

And of course @theCCCuk will offer major bit of advice on reaching netzero on 9 December

Expect the advice to align with UK NDC cos govt + CCC been discussing the headline figures

Lots to look fwd to tho!

/ENDS

Vital late addition

https://twitter.com/DrSimEvans/status/1329099966640517121?s=20