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18 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
NEW

UK govt has published 38pp doc on its 10-point climate plan, with numbers.

Adding them up, it looks like the new measures would only close 55% of the gap to meeting UK's 4th/5th carbon budgets…even before thinking about net zero ambition.

gov.uk/government/pub… Image
Here's my analysis of the plan from last night

Here's the latest government projections showing the ambition gap before the plan came out

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Here's how the numbers are reported, basically aggregate totals for next two carbon budget periods ImageImage

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
17 Nov
++NEW++

Boris Johnson 10point UK plan for "green industrial revolution" is out

by 2030
🚗petrol/diesel ban
🌬️40GW offshore
🔋"aim" for 5GW hydrogen
🏭4 CCS clusters

++
⚛️£ for big/small nuclear
🏠heat pump target, retrofit £
++more

Is it a lot? ✅
Enough for net-zero? ❌

1/
So how has UK been doing vs climate goals?

The story in two charts:

✅ CO2 down 1/3 in a decade
❌ off track against future carbon targets

Why?

UK ditched coal power but made little progress on transport, buildings etc etc

carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-c…

carbonbrief.org/ccc-uk-risks-e…

2/
There's been a growing "policy gap" between where UK is heading vs where it needs to be on climate

Basically cos UK hasn't had a credible attempt at a plan for years

In latest govt projections, the gap grew again & was larger than ever…

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

3/
Read 28 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
13 Oct
The @IEA #WEO20 is out!

My deep-dive analysis:

🌞 solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr
🏭 coal in "structural decline"
⛽️ no peak yet for oil
🔥 gas to rise 30%
☁️ CO2 plateau…unless more climate action
🎯 + 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C

THREAD

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Backdrop is #COVID19 pandemic and huge uncertainty, so #WEO20 changes usual roster of scenarios:

CPS out (for now)
STEPS gets "delayed recovery" (DRS) side case
SDS more prominent than before
NZE2050 = 1.5C pathway

The choice for the world:

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
One intriguing little nugget I found is that the SDS seems to be getting more prominent in recent WEOs.

Chart by @joejgoodman confirms a suspicion I'd been forming. (Any tips on PDF text tools tho? This was a bodge!)

carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-c…
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
7 Oct
I see the £50bn price tag of building another 30GW of offshore wind is making headlines, so some context

Most impt is that the invst will be private & we'll pay via bills, which will be lower than for alternative sources

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also worth noting that estimated investment of £50bn to build 30GW of offshore wind capacity is about 2x the amount invested for the first 10GW

So 2x invst yielding 3x capacity, which will yield perhaps 50% more electricity per GW as larger turbines etc.

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Finally, investment over a decade is bound to sound big. But we already collectively spend colossal sums on energy in the UK.

50bn/10yrs = 5bn/yr
~67bn/yr = consumer energy spend
~18bn/yr = consumer spend on electricity

gov.uk/government/col…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
6 Oct
UK to target 40GW of offshore wind

A few points to note

1/ offshore wind is set to be "negative subsidy" within just a few years

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
2/ Offshore wind is much cheaper than the government expected only a few years ago

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
3/ Reaching 40GW means tripling the rate of growth over the past decade

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
5 Oct
Eye-popping new data just out for UK car sales in Sep20

⚡️ new record for BEVs, up 3x in a yr & 7x since 2016
🔌 >10% of cars now come with a plug
⛽️ just 2/3 are conventional cars (cf 98% in 2015)
🚗 overall sales down ~40% since 2017 peak

THREAD with my analysis of @SMMT data Image
More than 10% of UK new car sales now come with a plug ie pure EVs or plug-in hybrids

With the rise of hybrids, now at a record 21% of sales, that means only ~2/3 of new cars sold in the UK today are conventional petrol or diesel, down from around 98% just five years ago (!) Image
Remarkably, diesels now make up just 14% of UK new car sales, down from around 50% in 2015 Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
17 Sep
THREAD: What's going on with UK new nuclear plans?

This week has seen one project finally cancelled – plus heavy briefing from No 10 on new support for nuclear.

Let's recap where things stand today and look at what might happen next…

1/
TL;DR

UK govt still vv keen on new nuclear but options dwindling due to Wylfa cancellation & aversion to Chinese $$ in Sizewell

Briefing suggests No 10 looking for ways to get Sizewell over line, but I doubt final decision imminent

Energy white paper likely to have more…

2/
So…some background

Nuclear supplies a little less than 20% of UK electricity generation, which it has been doing for decades

But output has slipped a bit in recent years due to retirements and lengthy closures for maintenance.

3/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-lo…
Read 27 tweets

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