There’s really nothing like a budgetary crisis to budge the Europe forward in the right direction. If HU and PO continue to block, the normal thing to do would be for the EU leaders to cave in – as they did to the British in 2016. #EUCO 1/
The much better thing would be to trigger enhanced cooperation (by QMV) and establish the grant element of the economic recovery programme by and on behalf of only those states which participate. 2/
Once established, the core group can choose to act by QMV even for the decision to raise the own resources ceiling as well as for a new #MFF — all with European Parliament consent. The enhanced group has to pay for itself — which should stimulate the markets. 3/
If the core group goes full federal, it should agree to pay its eurobond holders only from the proceeds of genuine direct taxes raised in the participating states (and not from national treasury GNI contributions). Articles 326-334 TFEU apply. 4/
An alternative route would be to create another special purpose vehicle like the #ESM. But this would be outside EU law, could not insist on QMV and would have no involvement of MEPs.

Good luck guys. @eucopresident @vonderleyen @Europarl_EN

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More from @AndrewDuffEU

12 Sep
As soon as the government moves the 2nd reading of the Internal Market Bill on Monday afternoon, one expects the EU Commission to launch an infringement action (Article 87 Withdrawal Agreement) on the grounds that the UK is *already* failing to fulfil its obligations. 1/
Specifically, the UK has breached Article 5 of the WA (good faith), Article 167 (cooperation in dispute settlement), and Article 168 (exclusivity in dispute settlement). @SuellaBraverman could then submit more of her lucid observations. 2/
The Commission will then issue a binding Reasoned Opinion (Article 258 TFEU), and would add a warning that it intends to pursue the UK further once the official WA arbitration panel is in place come January, should sections 41, 42, 43 and 45 of the Bill be enacted into law. 3/
Read 5 tweets
19 Jul
Looks like #EUCO has reached the point of “last resort” where enhanced cooperation can kick in to “further the objectives of the Union, protect its interests and reinforce its integration process” (Art. 20 TEU). Merkel & Macron can easily corral the minimum 9 member states. 1/
The group will represent the majority of EU population and the great bulk of its GNI. @vonderleyen needs to make the proposal based on the Commission’s original plan to issue eurobonds at scale to fund an economic recovery programme run by itself subject only to reverse QMV. 2/
Eurobond-holders will be paid by direct taxes levied only from taxpayers in the participating states. Spending will be above and beyond the EU budget. Council unanimity is required to launch such enhanced cooperation and MEPs have to give their consent (Art. 329 TFEU). 3/
Read 6 tweets
25 Mar
Yesterday’s lacklustre Eurogroup passed the buck to the heads of government. The European Council tomorrow must shoulder its constitutional responsibility to secure the cohesion of the EU as a whole, and in particular take decisive action to consolidate the euro. 1/
Dealing with the pandemic will exacerbate the structural imbalance between richer and poorer states. The EU has for years evaded the issuance of a mutualised safe asset in the form of eurobonds. The eurozone survives courtesy of @ecb but still without a common fiscal policy. 2/
The #coronavirus crisis is time to rectify this flaw in economic and monetary union. The plague risks the lives of all EU citizens equally, and the social and economic impact will be much worse than the asymmetric shock of the financial crash in 2008. 3/
Read 6 tweets
29 Jan
Funnily enough, although I can hardly recall what I was up to last week, I am beginning to remember very clearly what I was doing in January 1973. I was coming as a student from @stjohnscam to @IEE_Bruxelles 1/
Joining the European Community felt like sending reinforcements to aid the European cause. The British were adding their weight to the peaceful effort to unify the mainland, rather like our fathers had done in wartime. 2/
Europe wanted the UK to offer much with its parliamentary government and civil liberties. Beyond the arguments over farms, fish and oil, the British contribution to Western security in the Cold War was expected to be of significant lasting benefit to Europe as a whole. 3/
Read 5 tweets
30 Nov 19
It was an honour to represent the European Parliament at the intergovernmental conference on the Treaty of Lisbon which came into force exactly 10 years ago. Brussels bigwigs will eulogise the Treaty at a ceremony at the House of History on Sunday. 1/ google.com/url?sa=i&sourc…
The Treaty improved the way the EU is governed, especially by boosting the powers of the Parliament and, quid pro quo, of the European Council. It entrenched the rule of law and democratic practices. It clarified the competences of the Union and streamlined law making. 2/
Lisbon enhanced EU fundamental rights, and helped EU citizens. It was ambitious in foreign and security policy. It provided for more flexible integration by a core group of states, and installed the now famous secession clause of Article 50. 3/
Read 7 tweets
24 Oct 19
Here’s a thing. #EUCO’s decision tomorrow about the #Brexit #extension will perforce be very political (and therefore controversial). First, an extension will be granted until 30 November for the sole purpose of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. 1/
.@BorisJohnson will have to commit formally to using his best endeavours to achieve ratification. If however the WAB is still not ratified by 30 November a further extension will be made until 31 January for the sole purpose of holding a general election. 2/
Again, the PM will have formally to commit to securing an election. If there is still no ratification by 31 January, and if the new government has not revoked Article 50, the EU Treaties will simply cease to apply to the UK at midnight on 31 January. END/
Read 4 tweets

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