Profile picture
, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Here’s a thing. #EUCO’s decision tomorrow about the #Brexit #extension will perforce be very political (and therefore controversial). First, an extension will be granted until 30 November for the sole purpose of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement Bill. 1/
.@BorisJohnson will have to commit formally to using his best endeavours to achieve ratification. If however the WAB is still not ratified by 30 November a further extension will be made until 31 January for the sole purpose of holding a general election. 2/
Again, the PM will have formally to commit to securing an election. If there is still no ratification by 31 January, and if the new government has not revoked Article 50, the EU Treaties will simply cease to apply to the UK at midnight on 31 January. END/
My advice to EU 27 is to take a clear #Brexit #extension decision today. There will be no clear rational decision of the Commons on Monday but a lot of rubbish about 'taking no deal off the table'. Resolution of the crisis will not come from London. @eucopresident @MichelBarnier
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Andrew Duff

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#EUCO #Brexit #extension

More from @AndrewDuffEU see all

Profile picture
Andrew Duff
@AndrewDuffEU
Were I still an MEP or MP for a party that had promoted the referendum in the first place and had pledged to respect its outcome, I would vote for the Johnson deal now, without pleasure but with integrity. @LibDems @UKLabour @duponline Why? 1/
(a) The deal respects outcome of the referendum, resolving the most acute Brexit uncertainty for both Britain and Europe, restoring investor confidence. (b) It delivers the same deal on citizens’ rights and money negotiated by May to which nobody much objected. 2/
(c) It delivers the invaluable transition period and decent joint governance arrangements, possibly until the end of 2022, which minimises all-round disruption and takes us beyond certainly one and possibly two general elections. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Andrew Duff
@AndrewDuffEU
The scoop of @JGForsyth is very helpful in clarifying minds in Brussels about what the EU 27 should do at #EUCO next week. Unanimity on wanting to conclude the Brexit circus as soon as possible. The EU wants neither to trap the UK in the EU nor to expel it against its will.1/
Leaders are being advised to avoid pleasing either Johnson (who wants no extension) or the Commons (which wants January). So they will do their own thing and offer only a SHORT - and final - extension (November) in order to put no deal legislation in place. 2/
Such a short extension will pat the ball back into court of the UK parliament, which (under the Benn Act) has to decide whether to accept it or not. Learning from its two earlier extensions, EUCO knows that a LONG extension (January or more) will prolong the EU's crisis; ... 3/
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Andrew Duff
@AndrewDuffEU
Boris Johnson is right to call his proposal a “broad landing zone in which … a deal can begin to take shape.” As such, it is politically astute. If you accept the premise that the UK is leaving the EU single market and customs union, the proposal is also logical. 1/
He confirms that the Political Declaration must pitch at a mere free trade agreement with minimal regulatory alignment. That is not perfect but can be acceptable to the EU. The big ask is to get the EU to derogate from its normal practices of defending the internal market. 2/
The Commission feels queasy at having to trust the UK authorities to apply EU regulations on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (It will demand scrutiny.) We are lucky to have @PhilHoganEU as the Commissioner negotiating the future trade deal. 3/
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Deja vu in the realm of #Brexit Extensiondom.. France digging its heels in while Germany and most other EU countries support idea of granting the 3 month extension mooted in the PMs extension request letter /1
France was the ‚hardliner‘ when it came to the extension back in April too. But then Macron was contesting European parliamentary elections against his eurosceptic rival, Marine Le Pen. He was using the Brexit extension to make a political point back home in France /2
Now too Macron is keen to flex his Mr Europe muscles. He thinks by granting only the shortest of extensions, the EU will help focus MPs minds, encouraging them to ratify the newly negotiated #Brexit deal that the majority gave a nod to on Monday night /3
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Extension.
There not a clear automatic majority, let alone unanimity, among EU27 for an extension.Different ideas conditions and length of extension
Extensions short or long will have lots of conditions and must come with a plan, EU will want MPs to decide on revoking Brexit, a second referendum or a soft exit
EU leaders, will according to most diplomats, extend until end of June as a relatively easy option.
The 23 May date is about pressure. One possibility is to set conditions, extend for 6 weeks with conditions that MPs must decide on revoke, referendum or soft Brexit to get a longer extension
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
On Minford's 4 points. 1) You would only see gains from an (any) FTA once it’s implemented. Impact of no-deal would be felt immediately. /1
express.co.uk/news/politics/…
You don’t have any trade agreements and negotiating them will take time. So far, you’ve not even been able to conclude the lesser continuity agreements with all the existing partners. Not even half… /2
2) EQUIVALENT to a tariff. It won’t be a ‘border wall’ wall just friction resulting from having a normal border in place. Also non-tariff and behind-the-border barriers to trade are much more difficult to regulate, spot and remove. Kind of why there is so much fuss over them /3
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
Prof Tanja Bueltmann
@cliodiaspora
Here is what Andrea Jenkyns, the @Conservatives MP who accused @The3Million campaigners of fear-mongering and blocked me after I asked questions about her position, has to say about the #Brexit #WhitePaper. I am lost for words: there is nothing about this in the White Paper! 1/
So that tweet is a big fat lie. But of course here’s the thing: even if something about claiming benefits was in the White Paper, EU citizens who come to the UK to work and live of course *are* British taxpayers (and contribute in so many other ways). 2/
Obviously I cannot challenge Jenkyns directly because she has blocked me. But perhaps she does read this:
Your tweet is shameful beyond measure and low even by your standards: you must know this is false and yet there you are, blowing the dog whistle with a lie. 3/
Read 5 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Scotland #Bannon #Brexit #article50 #MPs #CambridgeAnalytica #vote #EUCO #brexit #Terrorism #Margin #SNP #BrexitDK #EuCo #PeoplesVoteMarch #euco #Yakovenko #WhitePaper #ToryPartyConference #NotContents #Immigration #Government #council #Trump #Contents
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!