NO EPIDEMIOLOGISTS RISKING Thanksgiving dinner: I answered this NYTimes poll to professional @societyforepi epidemiologists— here is how 635 epidemiologists are spending Thanksgiving and the holidays. Vast majority just keeping to themselves. #COVID19nytimes.com/2020/11/20/ups…
2) I think the minority having dinner outside household are doing it “outdoors”. There was a survey of how one would have dinner. And outdoor venue was a clear option. Not clear in this tabulation.
3) NYT makes it clear the 21% doing gatherings are doing it safely outside and with masks. I took the survey, so I know how it was asked—a lot of detailed questions how. They just collapsed it for simplicity.
4) FYI—the ultimate nerd org for epidemiologists is @societyforepi - —NYT polled: “About 8,000 epidemiologists were invited to participate in our survey, which was circulated by email to the membership of the Society for Epidemiologic Research and to individual scientists.”
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CRITICAL—a negative coronavirus test is **NOT** a ticket to freely socialize without precautions—many are dangerously misguided that it is. It does not negate quarantining, masking & distancing. Here is why 🧵. #COVID19news.yahoo.com/no-negative-co…
2) There is a virus buildup time — called incubation time—until one usually shows symptoms & viral load high enough to the reliably detected. Usually incubation is 5-6 days, but can be 1-14 days or longer. But if you test too early before viral load builds up, you’ll test neg.
3) This does not mean testing is bad—if anything we need more frequent testing. But you can test negative 4 days straight and then positive on day 5. That’s what happened to WH staff K-McEnany and S-Miller—4 negatives before 5th positive. Most people don’t have that luxury.
3) Further, noted earlier that the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines both showed better antibody binding & neutralization in vaccinated people in their P1 trials, than convalescent natural infected survivors.
Hence, another reason vaccine better than Scott Atlas’s “herd”. #COVID19
📍Reinfection worry re-emerging—another documented reinfection case - this time of a 21 year old women in South Korea. There are now officially 26 confirmed reinfections and 1 death, and 572 suspected reinfections of #COVID19. Infection is rare but not blue moon rate it seems.
3) notably, it was two different virus strains. “The spike protein D614G substitution that defines the clade “G” emerged in reinfection, while mutations that characterize the clade “V” (ie, nsp6 L37F and ORF3a G251V) were present at initial infection.” academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
BREAKING—FDA has granted emergency use authorization for @Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody cocktail REGEN-COV2 (Casirivimab and imdevimab), the same drug given to Trump when he was infected with #COVID19. Only for mild/moderate cases—not hospitalized. 🧵 fda.gov/news-events/pr…
2) There are a lot of rules and FDA stipulations for REGEN-COV2 cocktail use though— cannot be used if patient on oxygen (Trump was) or hospitalized. Children must be 12 or old and weigh 40 kg or more.
3) And it’s only for those mild/moderate with “high risk of progressing to severe #COVID19”—and thus need to be defined carefully what constitutes high risk of progressing:
📍NEW—Texas Army National Guard has just arrived in El Paso—they have been assigned the grim work of dealing with the overflow of deceased bodies now piled up in 10 refrigerated mobile morgues. It is hard work—previously county jail inmates. #COVID19