#Moldova: Freshly elected president Sandu made statements that are producing first controversies related to her presidential mandate. The statements referred to Russia and the Moldovan breakaway region. (THREAD)
1. Sandu was asked by @BBCSteveR about the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. She told that it is necessary to withdraw the Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria. This is not a new request, but depends the modality of saying it. bbc.com/news/world-eur…
2. A first negative reaction came from the Russian Duma. The member of the Committee on International Affairs Elena Panina rejected this idea of withdrawal because it would lead to the “unfreezing” of the conflict. She suggested that the separatist regime will never accept this.
3. Outgoing president Igor Dodon called Sandu’s statement a “serious mistake”. He invoked that president-elect would ask Ukraine to pressurize Transnistria. Dodon spoke about Russian peacekeepers as guarantee concerning Transnistrian conflict & country’s Russian speaking pop.
4. President-elect Sandu should learn quickly from how to speak in the FP language. The FP is unlike domestic political arena where speculations are not sanctioned at all. It seems that both Russian forces within Moldova and Russia itself will give hard time to Sandu.
4. I warned about the potential complications that Sandu may encounter on eastern direction. 👇 eesc.lt/en/2020/11/20/…

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More from @DionisCenusa

10 Nov
#Armenia: The war in NK is over, but now Pashinyan’s government should survive another “war”, a political one, at home, where the public is deeply disillusioned. The situation is very unstable. This serves the old system that may mull a counter-revolution. ria.ru/20201110/armen…
This situation creates a momentum for the “old system”.
The Armenian President Sarkissian praises Pashinyan and Russia in this interview, and accuses Turkey and Azerbaijan of “continuing the genocide”. armenpress.am/eng/news/10344…
Read 4 tweets
10 Nov
#Nagorno-Karabakh: The ceasefire deal favors Azerbaijan and Russia, and less so Armenia. Here are my takeaways after examining the agreement (THREAD /6):
1. The complete ceasefire comes together with the withdrawal of Armenia from all Azeri territories controlled outside NK - Aghdam (until Nov. 20), Kelbajar region (until Nov. 15); Lachin region (until Dec. 1). The remaining territory (in red circle) is tiny compared to pre-war.
2. Russia comes into play. Its 1970 peacekeepers will be deployed for 5 years, with possible prolongation, in the remaining part of NK and the Lachin corridor (5 km wide). This also will include a “center” for peacekeepers that could be converted into a military base by Russia.
Read 9 tweets
8 Nov
#Moldova: Here is a list of publications on Moldovan elections that I have produced so far. Additionally, I am adding interviews & articles of the foreign journalists. If you follow Moldova, then this thread could be helpful to get equipped before the run-off in one week:
1. Дежавю в новой реальности, 4 November, ipg-journal.io/regiony/evropa…
2. Moldova: Presidential elections, conspiracies merger and “colored revolutions, 1 November, ipn.md/en/moldova-pre…
Read 11 tweets
9 Sep
Some highlights from Lukashenko’s interview with the pro-Kremlin propagandists (THREAD /5):
1.Lukashenko told that if falls Belarus than Russia is to follow. That points to the fact that he deliberately externalizes the risks he assesses for the existing Belarusian regime to bring Russia into the game of his survival.
2.A comparison with the Ukrainian oligarchs is made in the pursuit for a moral approbation. He portrays himself as being “guilty” for wanting to protect the status quo, an imaginary “paradibut not for stealing from people like the politicians in the neighborhood.
Read 6 tweets
25 Aug
The Russian church replaced the leader of the Belarusian Orthodox Church, Metropolitan Pavel. Is this a request of Lukashenko or something else? Here are my findings. THREAD: (1/8)
1. Some time ago, the Metropolitan Pavel implored Lukashenko’s regime to stop the violence. news.tut.by/society/696638…
2. Over the last 10 days, the church wasn’t really present in the political and public debates in #Belarus. The protesters didn’t ask the church to join them, neither the regime interacted openly with the church.
Read 9 tweets
5 Aug
There are suspicions that the explosions in #Beirut are linked to 2.750 tons of Amonium Nitrates, shipped in bulk, by a vessel under #Moldovan flag, from Batumi (#Georgia) on the way to Africa, back in 2013 (1/4).
2/ Due to technical and then security issues, the content of the cargo was stored in the warehouses of the port of Beirut. Apparently, the welding work could be the cause of the explosion. Image
3/This case provides a clear example when corruption and organized crime involving some countries (Moldova, Georgia) can have transnational security consequences.
Read 6 tweets

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