Guidance for universities / students for returning home:
- what lateral flow device (LFD) tests are being used
- what is the sensitivity of these tests
- how is the risk of testing negative being communicated
- what are the results of the Liverpool pilot
The guidance discussed the high specificity of the tests but is silent on the sensitivity.
The guidance says
"This will provide additional assurances that where tests are negative, there is a reduced risk in students travelling home, and a reduced risk of transmission to their family and home community."
But this does *not* mean you will not be infectious.
It is unclear whether the university guidance is in conjunction with normal Test & Trace PCR tests or whether the LFD tests are designed as a substitute (which would be unwise).
So...
- get a lateral flow test if one is available
- be aware that these tests can have a false negative
- do not act as if a negative test means you will not be infectious
• • •
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Here is my thread showing my new heatmaps for detected cases, positivity, hospital and ICU admissions.
We have reached the grim milestone of over 200 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. There were 8 cases per 100,000 in this age group in August.
Not all cases are detected.
Monochrome version
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Positivity is the number of people testing positive divided by the number of people tested. Greater than 5% means that not enough testing is being done.
This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from )
* This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from @avds )
The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.
On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.
These were subsequently revised
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.
These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The upper level for the range of the projection has changed but *the central projection* (the dark blue line) *has not changed*