PHE have released their latest Covid surveillance report

It is for week 46, showing up to week 45 data (2-8 November 2020)

Significant all-cause deaths were observed in week 44 (as well as week 43) overall in England , and in the 75-84 age group.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Confirmed Covid cases increasing.

Positivity decreasing slightly (but still very high in Pillar 2 testing)
Age distribution of detected cases in the last two weeks
Weekly Covid rates. Good to see rates under 100 cases per 100,000 in some areas (south west, south, Suffolk).

Rates still very high in north, west midlands, Bristol area
Incidents / outbreak locations
Increase in incidents/outbreaks in care homes
Hospitalizations increasing
Increase in hospitalization admission rates in 75-84 and 85+ age groups
ICU/HDU admissions increasing
Large increase in ECMO admissions (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extracorp… )
Deaths increasing (note most recent week is partial data)
These are the people that have died from Covid in the second wave
This is where people have died from Covid in the second wave
Excess deaths detected in:
- England
- 75-84 population
- North West
- Yorkshire and Humber
Regional dynamics by age group
University-age adult dynamics
Positivity by region
Positivity by age
Hopsital/ICU admission rates
Hospital (left) and ICU (right) admissions
Hospital (left) and ICU/HDU (right) admission rates
Ethnic group hospitalization and ICU/HDU admission rates.

Note that you are more likely to be admitted to ICU if you are not white than if you are white, indicating the effects of Covid are more severe for not white individuals.
Age/sex distribution of Covid cases. Note this thread re 82-year-olds (median age)

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

13 Nov
Here is my thread showing my new heatmaps for detected cases, positivity, hospital and ICU admissions.

We have reached the grim milestone of over 200 cases per 100,000 in the over-80s. There were 8 cases per 100,000 in this age group in August.

Not all cases are detected. Image
Monochrome version Image
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Positivity is the number of people testing positive divided by the number of people tested. Greater than 5% means that not enough testing is being done.

Each age group for males exceeds 5% positivity. Image
Read 6 tweets
12 Nov
33,470 Covid cases were reported today, significantly above yesterday's 22,950 cases Image
This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from ImageImageImage ) Image
* This does not appear to be due to cases being disproportionately added in Liverpool due to Lateral Flow Device testing - ( table below based on that from @avds ) Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Nov
This is the evaluation report for the Innova lateral flow device tests that are currently being used in the Liverpool pilot.

ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-1…
This updates prior work where they were only shown to 'pass' the tests

gov.uk/government/pub…
"The specificity of the test was recorded as 99.68% - the overall false positive rate was 0.32%, although this was lowered to 0.06% in a lab setting."
Read 9 tweets
11 Nov
Guidance for universities / students for returning home:
- what lateral flow device (LFD) tests are being used
- what is the sensitivity of these tests
- how is the risk of testing negative being communicated
- what are the results of the Liverpool pilot

gov.uk/government/pub…
The guidance discussed the high specificity of the tests but is silent on the sensitivity.
The guidance says
"This will provide additional assurances that where tests are negative, there is a reduced risk in students travelling home, and a reduced risk of transmission to their family and home community."

But this does *not* mean you will not be infectious.
Read 5 tweets
7 Nov
Here is my latest heatmap of detected Covid-19 cases in England. Data from @PHE_uk

*** 177 *** cases per 100,000 in the over-80s.

There were **8** cases per 100,000 in the over-80s in late August.

See the positivity chart in this thread to show that many cases go undetected.
Colourblind-safe heatmap of detected Covid-19 cases in England. Data from @PHE_uk
Positivity of tests for males in Pillar 2. Anything above 5% means we are not testing enough people.

*All* age groups in males are not tested sufficiently.

There is a significant issue with males not being tested sufficiently.
Read 6 tweets
6 Nov
The updated SPI-M slides - a short thread on what's changed.

On 31 September, in a hastily arranged press conference, the Chief Scientific Adviser presented these two slides, showing projections for hospital admissions and deaths.

These were subsequently revised
The first slide shows a *projection* for hopsital admissions. On the left, the oringial slide, on the right, the amended slide.

These slides present a *range* of the projection (the shaded blue area), and a central projection (the dark blue line).
The upper level for the range of the projection has changed but *the central projection* (the dark blue line) *has not changed*
Read 17 tweets

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