Last week @WHO recorded the highest weekly numbers yet in this pandemic:
More than 4 million new cases
More than 67,000 new deaths
@WHO The good news is that the rapid increase in global case numbers has slowed down.
The deaths are still catching up, however. In the last four weeks reported deaths were:
45,051
54,835
59,699
67,221
@WHO The countries reporting the most cases last week:
US: >1.1 million cases (+14%)
India: >280,000 (-8%)
Italy: >230,000 (-3%)
Brazil: >200,000 (+17%)
France: >170,000 (-16%)
That mirrors the global situation with cases decreasing in Europe and increasing in the Americas.
@WHO On US: “Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screened more than 2 million air passengers on 20 and 21 November, in the two days after the federal government issued a travel warning and it is estimated that some 50 million Americans may be travelling this Thanksgiving."
@WHO Argentina: "new cases and new deaths have been trending downwards since mid-October”, but slight increase in cases in parts of Buenos Aires and no more decrease in Cordoba and Rosario, "raising concerns that this may signal a broader shift in trend in the coming weeks."
@WHO Europe: New cases in the region declined 6% last week after a 10% decline the previous week, "in a sign that the re-introduction of stricter public health and social measures in a number of countries over the last few weeks is beginning to slow down transmission."
@WHO Japan: "largest number of daily cases since the beginning of the outbreak with over 2000 cases reported per day for five consecutive days ... There has been a resurgence in cases over the past three weeks following a relatively stable number of cases in September and October."
@WHO Africa: Cases increased by 15% to over 47,000. Deaths increased by 30% to around 1000. "The highest new case and death counts were reported in South Africa, Algeria and Kenya."
This new paper on #sarscov2 transmission delves into the data from Hunan province and it is really interesting and the kind of data I would love to see more of. So a short thread science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
The authors used a dataset of 1,178 infected individuals and their 15,648 close contacts identified in Hunan province between January 16 and April 3 and reconstructed most likely transmission chains.
Superspreading:
The paper confirms previous work showing high overdispersion (so small minority of people leading to most onward transmission): “We find that 80% of secondary infections can be traced back to 15% of #SARSCoV2 infected individuals”.
Estimate k at 0.3
Some new data came out today on the “other” #covid19 vaccine, Russia’s Sputnik V:
Press release claims efficacy of
91,4% - 28 days after 1st shot
95% - 42 days after 1st shot
Apart from usual caveats it is important to note that this comes from analysis of just 39 infections:
@sciencecohen In press conference Kirill Dimitriev, CEO of Russian Direct Investment Fund, says vaccine will be produced in lyophilized form to be stored at 2-8 degrees C.
Vaccine to be delivered internationally from January 2021 for up to 500 million people that year. Less than $10 per shot.
“The light at the end of this long, dark tunnel is growing brighter”, says @DrTedros at @who#covid19 presser. "There is now real hope that vaccines – in combination with other tried and tested public health measures – will help to end the #COVID19 pandemic.”
@DrTedros@WHO No vaccines have ever been developed this fast and the ”scientific community has set a new standard for vaccine development”, says @drtedros. "Now the international community must set a new standard for access."
@DrTedros@WHO "The urgency with which #covid19 vaccines have been developed must be matched by the same urgency to distribute them fairly”, says @drtedros. “There is now a real risk that the poorest and most vulnerable will be trampled in the stampede for vaccines."
A lot of questions about why lower first dose of Oxford vaccine should lead to better protection.
In press briefing just now, @ajpollard1 said: “We think that by giving a smaller first dose, that we're priming the immune system differently we're setting it up better to respond.”
“What we don't know at this moment is whether that difference is in the quality, or the quantity of the immune response”, he says. More work to do he adds. “We've already started some work this morning to try to answer some of those questions.”
Sarah Gilbert says lower first dose may mimic natural infection better. “we're a group of academics, so we're delighted to have something more academic to study on this.”
Another day, another press release of important #covid19 vaccine results:
This time Oxford/AstraZeneca trial with more than 20,000 participants in UK and Brazil
70% efficacy
but:
62% after two doses given a month apart
90% if first shot is half-dose
Vaccine can be stored and distributed more easily because it only requires normal refrigeration (2-8 degrees C)
Submission for regulatory approval being prepared now
Up to 3 billion doses could be manufactured in 2021
Data „suggest that this half dose and full dose regimen could help to prevent transmission of the virus, evidenced by lower rates of asymptomatic infection in the vaccinees, with further information to become available when trial data are next evaluated.“ ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-2…
Finally finished @deerbrian‘s book on Andrew Wakefield. Not easy finding time to read a book this year as a science journalist, but this one was a must: The inside story of uncovering one of the biggest scientific frauds of the 20th century (a friend calls it ‚journalism porn‘).
I thought I already knew most of the story behind the MMR scare, Wakefield‘s infamous, retracted Lancet paper and his anti-vax crusade. But - as usual - it turns out that the complexities and texture of real life are way more surprising and satisfying in full technicolor detail.
The book does a great job explaining all the things that were wrong with Wakefield’s work but also some aspects that I had never really understood incl. for instance Wakefield’s re-emergence as a “filmmaker”.