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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

27 Nov

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1331682386875084802

This chart shows Sweden's mortality rate & excess deaths since 1900

While COVID-19 *seems* to be a small bump in mortality, 2020 has the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic

These ~4700 excess deaths are supported by SCB:

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1331682386875084802

1/n

The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough

2/n

For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020

3/n

Read 10 tweets

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

18 Nov

I dusted off my COVID-19 model (that predicted the Florida July wave) & applied it to Sweden

After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April

Hard to believe?

1/n

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1327478102188912640

Specifically: by 25 December we will see Sweden has recorded 100 deaths/day around 11 December

(due to reporting delays, it takes up to 2 weeks past a given date to have a complete count of deaths on this date:

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1327478102188912640

)

2/n

My model is formally described in outbreak.flashpub.io/pub/method-of-…

It predicts deaths from cases alone, but let me explain in layman's terms how it works...

3/n

Read 17 tweets

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

16 Nov

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1314844027846500354

Covid lockdowns appear to reduce suicide rates

Suicide rates decreased during the lockdown in Victoria, Australia (paradoxically despite self-reported levels of depression increasing??)

Suicides (and other deaths) have also decreased in Peru:

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1314844027846500354

@sometimes_data

Victoria chart is from @sometimes_data — thanks!

Who else has data for other countries?

@binaryanalogue

Suicide rates have also decreased in Massachusetts during lockdowns:

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

h/t @binaryanalogue

Read 5 tweets

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

25 Oct

@VoidSurf1

͏@VoidSurf1 wrote a cool thread on Sweden excess deaths over the last few centuries. At first sight, his analysis seems correct... But there is a fatal flaw.

1/n

https://twitter.com/VoidSurf1/status/1313781479172964357

You can find his analysis here:

https://twitter.com/VoidSurf1/status/1313781479172964357

2/n

https://twitter.com/VoidSurf1/status/1313781483862142977

Despite the mortality data for 2020 being preliminary, he took great precautions to make it as accurate as possible. Good👍

Note how it is apparent that the month of April alone had 2000 excess deaths.

3/n

https://twitter.com/VoidSurf1/status/1313781483862142977

Read 8 tweets

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

24 Oct

COVID deaths & hospitalizations always lag cases. The lag has been demonstrated, is often 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 than a month, and its timing can be predicted accurately (I have done it.) The #casedemic folks are just, well, wrong.

A thread explaining the lag with real-world examples.

1/n

I will show what causes the lag, and how I can predict it accurately. First, there are multiple causes behind it:

#1 clinical
#2 reporting
#3 age prevalence

I will explain these causes one by one

2/n

Lag #1 is the most obvious: clinically the mean infection-to-death time is 22.9 days (see pg 4: static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1…)

So at minimum deaths will lag cases by a little over 3 weeks

Similarly, infection-to-hospitalization is 1-2 weeks

3/n

Read 31 tweets

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd

@zorinaq

27 Sep

Excited to share this new COVID modeling script:

It applies various age-stratified IFR estimates to calculate the expected overall IFR in a given country. It's based on demographics (countries population pyramids): github.com/mbevand/covid1…

Many interesting findings—read on

1/n

First off, I use five different sources estimating the age-stratified Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID-19:

1. ENE-COVID
2. US CDC
3. Verity et al.
4. Levin et al.
5. Gudbjartsson et al.

If you know of more sources, let me know and I'll add them to my script

2/n

So, what do we find?

The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to 2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.

3/n

Read 9 tweets

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