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27 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
A mutated #coronavirus different from the one prevalent in Wuhan took over the world. It was more infectious.

nytimes.com/2020/11/24/wor…
We’ve been lucky though. In the 1918 pandemic, the 2nd wave was likely driven by a mutation that was both more infectious AND fatal.
We already knew this was happening back in March. This image is from The Hammer and the Dance. The only thing we didn’t know then is which variant was going to prevail. Details.
With a virus running amok in Europe and the Americas, this Christmas we’re giving #COVID19 the gift of more options tu mutate, just as a vaccine 💉 is in sight at the end of the tunnel.

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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
28 Nov
NY’s threshold to close schools is 3% positivity.

Apparently, its origin is unclear, and its usage polemic. So this is a thread about its origin, why, how it’s used, and a lesson about processes vs. goals.

nytimes.com/2020/11/23/pod…
Back in March, ppl had no idea what was happening. They took cases at face value. One of the big goals of the article “Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now” was to highlight how official cases was meaningless.

tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-ac… Image
Then, ppl realized cases were not the entire picture. Testing was crucial too. No tests, no cases — but lots of hidden infections. So they started reporting cases and tests.

But these are meaningless numbers in a vacuum, so they sought a ratio.
Read 16 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
24 Nov
You can do it, Western countries!

"Whether you think you can or you think you can't... You're right!"

Boss Baby is the perfect inspirational leader for #COVID19


#YouCanBeatIt
"The path to success is not a straight line, but rather a wild ride."

"Aim for failure and you will always succeed."

Read 4 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
22 Nov
Capitalism vs socialism, markets vs gov... Most ppl think 1 is great and the other trash. That’s simplistic.

They’re tools adapted to different situations. We must understand them to know when to use them. Thread.
[1/
Capitalism is great. It uses natural selfishness to push ppl to be as productive as possible, promising them wealth. The + you produce for others, the + you get.

That is achieved by incurring both the cost and benefit of your initiatives.

Here’s the pbm
[2/
It creates a huge incentive to increase your benefits in ways that worsen society.

This happens in many ways. Eg:

1. Information asymmetry
You want cheap & delicious food. But what if it has ingredients that cause cancer? The producer knows it, but doesn’t tell you.
[3/
Read 25 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
18 Nov
Great news this week:
- Pfizer's vaccine 90% effective
- Moderna's vaccine 94.5% effective
- Immunity to #COVID lasts (unless the virus mutates enough, still unknown)

How should this change our decisions in countries like the US? Thread

nytimes.com/2020/11/17/hea…
One of the key arguments of Herd Immunity apologists like @ScottWAtlas or Anders Tegnell is that you can't stop the virus. That means it only stops killing people when 50%-80% of the population has caught it (66% in Manaus).
nature.com/articles/d4158…
If it had taken us 5 years to get a vaccine, it might have made sense: it might be too hard to control the virus this long. But now we can guess that by mid-late 2021, enough ppl might be vaccinated to stop it.
Read 7 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
17 Nov
As a Stanford University alumnus, I am appalled at @ScottWAtlas's defense of herd immunity, and disappointed at @Stanford's response. But the nuances are important to get right. Thread:

[1/
First, @ScottWAtlas. The @washingtonpost reported his herd immunity position. The quick idea: (a) It's impossible to stop the virus, (b) it doesn't kill that many people anyway, (c) Sweden has succeeded letting it run, (d) lockdowns are too expensive
[2/

washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
(a) It's impossible to stop the virus... except for all the places that have succeeded

[3/
Read 15 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
17 Nov
BREAKING: Sweden limits gatherings to 8 ppl.
thelocal.se/20201116/break…
[1/
This time, it's the law.
[2/4]
I applaud the Swedish government. I think it will help — although I'm not sure it will be enough
[3/4]
Read 4 tweets

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