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Trita Parsi

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27 Nov, 11 tweets, 3 min read

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, one of Iran's most important nuclear officials, has been assassinated in Tehran. This is what we know /THREAD/:

1. Israel has assassinated numerous Iranian nuclear scientists in the past but have never been able to get to the highly protected Fakhrizadeh.
>>

2. Some Iranian reports claim it was a suicide attack, but the bullet holes in Fakhrizadeh’s car cast some doubt on that.

3. If it was a suicide bomb, then that reduces the likelihood of Israeli operatives carrying out the attack.

4. Israel has, however, used operatives from the Iranian terrorist organization the MEK in the past to conduct attacks in Iran. The MEK is the group that introduced suicide assassinations to Iran.

opiniojuris.org/2012/02/11/nbc…

5. Israel is a prime suspect because of a few factors:
- It has the expertise and capacity.
- It has done it before.
- It has the motivation.

6. Let’s unpack the last point: Conducting attacks in Iran has few down-sides for Israel right now. Either Iran lashes out and sparks a broader conflict that sucks in the US, bringing about a US-Iran confrontation that Netanyahu long has sought.

7. If Iran sits tight and waits out the Trump presidency, Israel will not have lost much as Trump clearly has either given Israel the green light to attack Iran or at a minimum refuses to impose a cost on Israel for dragging the US to the brink of war with Iran.

8. Either way, the assassination (and other likely future attacks) will likely harden Iran’s position and complicate - if not hinder - the Biden team’s attempts to revive diplomacy. That serves Netanyahu’s interest as well.

9. Indeed, Tehran’s openness to post-JCPOA negotiations on missiles and other matters will likely diminish if Israel engages in assassinations in Iran or attacks Iranian targets elsewhere - such as in Syria.

10. In fact, the Obama administration CONDEMNED Israel’s earlier assassinations precisely because it knew the murders wouldn’t set back Iran’s nuclear program - their only intent and impact would be to set back diplomacy. See amazon.com/Losing-Enemy-O…

11. We are now in a worse situation for the next +50 days. The main impact of attacks of this kind will NOT be to set back Iran’s program but to render diplomacy for Biden more difficult. Trump will not push back against these attacks - he may even be encouraging and aiding them.

12. Be prepared for a very bumpy ride till Biden’s inauguration. And if it turns out that Israel was behind the assassination, have no illusions about Netanyahu’s desire to drag the US into another endless war in the Middle East…

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More from @tparsi

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

15 Sep

/THREAD/
Hate to rain on Pompeo, Bibi and MBZ’s parade, but here’s why this “deal” will intensify tensions and give another lease on life for America’s counterproductive military presence in the Middle East. >>

2. Contrary to Pompeo's talking points, this will not create peace or make it easier to bring home US troops from the region. The focus on the “Iran threat” is designed to lock the US into a Cold/Hot War in the Middle East for decades to come. >>
(newrepublic.com/article/159010…)

3. We will be hearing endless arguments going forward - from many different sides - that now that the Israelis and the "Arabs" (though its only UAE and Bahrain) - have united, the US is obligated to support them against the “Iranian menace.” >>

Read 7 tweets

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

14 Aug

So Trump & Pompeo just massively embarrassed the US on the world stage with a humiliating loss at the UNSC. Passionately fighting losing battles has become the hallmark of Trump and Pompeo's Iran policy, but this takes it to an entirely new level. >>

Only two votes in favor, two against and 11 abstentions.

It would be a mistake to solely look at this as yet another example of Trump's diplomatic vandalism as it misses the real point: The structural stupidity of US Middle East policy that long predates Trump. >>

From embarrassing the U.S. at the Council, Trump and Pompeo will now move on to create an existential crisis for the Council. Even if the US manages to trigger snapback, other P5 states will challenge the legitimacy of the move and leave the Council in an unprecedented crisis.>>

Read 9 tweets

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

25 Aug 19

/THREAD/

1. Zarif unexpectedly attending the G7 meeting may lead to a much-needed deescalation. If the reporting on Macron's proposal is correct, it would also be signal an abysmal failure of Bolton's maximum pressure strategy.
>>

2. Macron reportedly proposes that Iran returns to full compliance to the JCPOA in return for Trump reissuing sanctions waivers and thus removing his illegal sanctions against purchasing Iranian oil.

3. This would bring the situation back to the status quo pre-May 2019. The US will continue to violate the deal and sanction Iran, Tehran will continue to adhere to the deal but will also sell its oil. It's a status quo no one is happy with, but one that is relatively stable.

Read 6 tweets

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

19 Jul 19

/THREAD/

With the seizing of the British ship, the Iranians are clearly signaling: The countries who succumb to Trump's pressure and agree to become tools in his maximum pressure policy on Iran will pay a price for targetting Iran.

>

2. The UK seized an Iranian tanker 2 weeks ago, now Iran has seized a UK tanker. No one should be surprised by Iran's response. The more intriguing question is: Why did the UK agree to become a party to Trump's lose-lose game?
>

3. I am a bit surprised by the surprise. Some have called this a bold move by Iran. Perhaps that's a conclusion one could have reached if one assumed that Iran was a push-over. That's a perilous assumption.
>

Read 5 tweets

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

16 May 19

/THREAD/ Iran's counter-escalation comes across as making a bad situation worse. But there may be a sound logic behind it. Here's what I think the Iranian game plan is:

nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…

2. Tehran’s strategy is predicated on two assumptions:

A. There is an important — but not yet determinate — wedge between Trump and Bolton. As long as this wedge is limited, Trump’s pressure on Iran is costly to Iran but carries no cost to Trump. >>

3.
B. This wedge is rooted in Trump’s lack of interest in Bolton's desired war with Iran. Trump genuinely believes that maximum pressure will force Iran to capitulate and give him an easy victory (a highly unlikely turn of events.) >>

Read 5 tweets

Trita Parsi

@tparsi

8 May 19

/THREAD/ Tehran’s retaliation against the Trump administration’s violations of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is making the costs and dangers of Trump’s disastrous Iran policy clear for all to see. 1/

The #IranDeal closed off Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon. Now, a year after Trump pulled out, Iran is acting on its warnings that it cannot uphold the agreement unilaterally. As such, Trump has initiated a chain reaction that will make America and the world less safe. 2/

It is not surprising that Iran has taken this step. It is surprising that it's taken Iran so long to take this step. Trump had created a bizarre situation in which Iran was more sanctioned for abiding by a nuclear agreement than it was when the US accused it of violating one. 3/

Read 9 tweets

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