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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
, 5 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
/THREAD/ Iran's counter-escalation comes across as making a bad situation worse. But there may be a sound logic behind it. Here's what I think the Iranian game plan is:

nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
2. Tehran’s strategy is predicated on two assumptions:

A. There is an important — but not yet determinate — wedge between Trump and Bolton. As long as this wedge is limited, Trump’s pressure on Iran is costly to Iran but carries no cost to Trump. >>
3.
B. This wedge is rooted in Trump’s lack of interest in Bolton's desired war with Iran. Trump genuinely believes that maximum pressure will force Iran to capitulate and give him an easy victory (a highly unlikely turn of events.) >>
4. Bolton understands that the maximum pressure strategy won’t break Iran. But it will corner Trump and may force him to escalate matters all the way to military action, which is Bolton’s preference. >>
5. Trump instinctually opposes going to war but Bolton is most likely calculating that, when deprived of all other options, Trump's ego will not permit him to back off. >>
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More from @tparsi see all

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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
My hit on CNN yesterday regarding the completely unnecessary crisis Bolton is causing with Iran, part 1/3
Part 2
Part 3 - probably the most important point is made here
Read 3 tweets
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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
/THREAD/ Tehran’s retaliation against the Trump administration’s violations of the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is making the costs and dangers of Trump’s disastrous Iran policy clear for all to see. 1/
The #IranDeal closed off Iran’s paths to a nuclear weapon. Now, a year after Trump pulled out, Iran is acting on its warnings that it cannot uphold the agreement unilaterally. As such, Trump has initiated a chain reaction that will make America and the world less safe. 2/
It is not surprising that Iran has taken this step. It is surprising that it's taken Iran so long to take this step. Trump had created a bizarre situation in which Iran was more sanctioned for abiding by a nuclear agreement than it was when the US accused it of violating one. 3/
Read 9 tweets
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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
/THREAD/

This may explain Bolton's provocative press release threatening war with Iran:

Quads force commander Qassem Soleimani has for weeks insisted that the US will not attack Iran. He just posted this video on his Telegram account yesterday:

This must be very disturbing to Bolton. His strategy is based on pressuring (economically) and scaring (militarily) the Iranian gov into submission - or war.

But if Soleimani insists the US won't attack, that indicates that Tehran is not taking the military threat seriously >>
So Bolton twists the routine deployment of a US warship to the Persian Gulf to convince Iran that the threat is real. It disturbs Bolton endlessly that his warmongering is not taken seriously by Soleimani.

Yet, this does not change the underlying reality: Bolton wants war.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
THREAD

1)
 Let's talk about a recent @nytimes editorial rushing to the support of #Iran's mullahs by calling on U.S. President Donald Trump to drop his strong stance & literally return to the appeasement years of Obama.
2)
 The @nytimes claims:
"The latest set of sanctions on Tehran could make a bad situation worse."

As if Obama's 2015 Iran nuclear deal made the situation far better by providing $150 bn in credit & $1.7 bn in cash to Tehran, allowing the mullahs to wreak havoc across the region.
3)
 "President Trump has made no secret of his desire to isolate and impoverish Iran."

The @nytimes chooses its words quite carefully to display an image of Trump making conditions worse for the Iranian people.

Trump's actions, however, are targeting the mullahs' regime.
Read 14 tweets
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Asef_Bazmandeh
@BazmandehAsef
🚨#Iran
Iran in the mirror of the #daily developments
May 5, 2019
NO: 1
The IRGC Took Over Iran’s Telecoms Industry with a Disinformation Campaign. Then, It Used the Industry to Amplify Its Own Lies.
fdd.org/analysis/2019/…
#IRGCTerrorists
@SecPompeo #IranRegimeChange
🚨#Iran
Iran in the mirror of the #daily developments
May 5, 2019
NO: 2
Six charts that show how hard US sanctions have hit Iran.
bbc.com/news/world-mid…
#IRGCTerrorists
@SecPompeo #IranRegimeChange
🚨#Iran
Iran in the mirror of the #daily developments
May 5, 2019
NO: 3
Trump admin slaps new restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities.
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
#IRGCTerrorists
@SecPompeo #IranRegimeChange
Read 4 tweets
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Asef_Bazmandeh
@BazmandehAsef
🚨#Iran
NO: 1
@SecPompeo: On #SriLanka, radical #Islamic terrorism remains a threat. The President & I have been very clear on this. #ISIS has been weakened, yet this evil continues in our world. Our coalition is committed to defeat this terrorism.
#IranRegimeChange #USA
🚨#Iran
NO: 2
@SecPompeo: Any country not abiding by these sanctions will be sanctioned.
The President & I have had conversations & we're confident they will provide the oil needed for the world market.
The waivers will expire on May 2. No #exemptions.
#IranRegimeChange #USA
🚨#Iran
NO: 3
@SecPompeo: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:
Every Iranian (regime) leader including @HassanRouhani & @JZarif has accepted the fundamental nature of this regime. Therefore, in our view, there is no logic behind the moderate/hardliner distinctions
#IRGCTerrorists
Read 13 tweets
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NCRI-U.S. Rep Office
@NCRIUS
#Thread: 1/14- A quick review of the body work by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and its US Representative Office (@NCRIUS) to reveal IRGC’s malign activities: war & terrorism, nuclear weapons & ballistic missiles development, cyber-terror, among others. #Iran
2/14- Fox News (@FoxNews) reports on the information divulged by the NCRI-US on the #IRGC terror training camps in #Iran.
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Read 14 tweets
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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
LONG THREAD

1)
 As developments in #Venezuela are gaining speed, it is worth while to take a look at how former president Hugo Chavez agreed to permit #Iran’s regime build missile bases in the South American country.
And the Obama admin denied everything.
welt.de/politik/auslan…
2)
 “Chávez has signed a secret strategic cooperation agreement with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on October 19, 2010, aimed at building an Iran-Venezuelan missile base on Venezuelan soil.”
3)
 “The base is to be built on the Peninsula de Paraguaná, about 120 kilometers from the Colombian border. A small group of leading Iranian engineers from the Revolutionary Guard-owned construction company Khatam al-Anbia has already visited the site.”
Read 24 tweets
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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
THREAD
1)
 As the situation in Venezuela gets tense & the U.S. is placing its full weight behind the people’s cries for freedom, it is worth noting the relations between the dictators that ruled this country & the dictators ruling #Iran’s regime.
Maduro with Khamenei, Rouhani & …
2)
 Former Venezuelan ruler Hugo Chavez also had close relations with Khamenei, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad & Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
3)
 On Hugo Chavez, Ahmadinejad once said he would be resurrected and “return alongside Jesus Christ and Mehdi [the hidden imam] to establish peace and justice in the world.”
timesofisrael.com/iran-vows-ties…
Read 31 tweets

Trending hashtags

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