Now up: @Rob_Malley and I on the case against an FTO designation for the Huthis. We argue it would deepen the humanitarian crisis, potentially sparking famine, and likely prolong the war.
https://twitter.com/Rob_Malley/status/1332359719562964992
I’ve had several long conversations in recent days with Yemeni friends who disagree: as we write, there is a strong feeling on the other side of this conversation that a designation would provide leverage with the Huthis that would force them into negotiations w/ a weakened hand.
Some see the designation as a last chance to get the US to apply real pressure to the Houthis before the Biden administration enters the White House. And maybe a last chance to change the balance of power in yemen.
We argue that the humanitarian cost of a designation, especially in the early days, could be catastrophic. International businesses who make trade with yemen possible could well freeze activities not just in Huthi controlled areas but nationwide.
We also question the political calculus of the move. A big part of the way the war has been fought has been through the economy. This far this hasn’t tipped the balance and has caused excess suffering. It’s not clear how this would change that pattern.
I’m aware that our stance won’t be popular in some circles, and that we will be seen as naive or apologists, but the economic arguments we make are rooted in conversations with lawyers, bankers and traders who all make the same case: this could be lethal for trade entering yemen.
60% of Yemen’s 30 million people are food insecure — not because food isn’t available but because they can’t afford it. 90% of food is imported. Cut off just a per centage of imports and it follows that prices rise — even further out of reach for the poorest people.
In sum: an FTO may seem like an attractive tool, and the change of administration in the US could explain the sense of urgency among proponents. But there are smarter ways to build leverage than a blanket designation that arbitrarily punishes the entire population
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