Tweet

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

28 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read

Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/

...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1329600259106824194?s=20

With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1329600259106824194?s=20

@TehseenLadha

"...more COVID-19 pressure on the hospital system will delay surgeries and divert resources from other units."

An article featuring Dr. Tehseen Ladha @TehseenLadha 👇

calgaryherald.com/news/local-new…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD

20 Nov

Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/

Read 9 tweets

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD

6 Nov

Alberta: Exponential growth
Daily new cases doubling time is still ~2.5 weeks

Projection stays the same:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases

We urgently need a decisive action to avoid a crisis.

1/

We, together with most Western countries, achieved now the surge predicted by theory (red line) 👇

2/
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones

It's not too late to change the strategy

Let's follow NZ, Vietnam, Atlantic Canada, Australian states, and others, who succeeded in elimination
(elimination = no sustained community transmission)

(While our experimenting with "simmering" ended up with roaring flames)

3/

Read 5 tweets

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD

29 Oct

AB doubling time is 2.5 weeks.
It seems to be über-exponential➡️the doubling time shortens with time.

At this rate we will have:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases
and so on.

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.
1/

It's too late for soft measures.
We need strong decisive measures + $$ support for businesses and people ASAP, in order to substantially *reduce the scale* of the upcoming disaster.

It takes 3-4 weeks from the shutdown date till the peak in cases and hospitalizations.

2/

If we shut down today, we will still reach at least 1600-2000 daily new cases, before numbers start to decrease.

If we shut down on Nov 15, we will reach 3000+ daily new cases before numbers start to decrease.

Either we control the virus, or the virus controls us.

3/

Read 6 tweets

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD

16 Oct

AB: Daily new cases grow exponentially since May 25.

Doubling time calculated for May 25 - Oct 15 is:
50 days (~7 weeks) (95% CI [45, 57])

It can flip to a faster rate at *any time*
It cannot slow down by itself.

Even at a current rate it's bad;
It means:
....
1/

It means, that even if the growth won't speed up, we will have:
500 daily new cases by Dec 03
1000 daily new cases by Jan 21

and so on..., doubling every 7 weeks.

2/

Persistent exponential growth means that the virus spread is not under control.

It's not a "Slow Burn"* or a "Dance", oscillating around some fixed number.
This is a constant growth.
Slowish, yet persistent.

(*Disclaimer: I'm against Slow Burn as a goal. I'm for #ZeroCovid)
3/

Read 6 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!