Thread by @GosiaGasperoPhD

Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/

The question is not *if* people will die. They already do. The question is how many more avoidable and unnecessary deaths we allow to happen?

4/

We need serious measures *now*.

Half-measures don't work. Europe already did this experiment for us. There is no need to experiment on ourselves, when we know the results.
No need to replicate what didn't work.

Example of Czech Republic:

5/

The *proven* cocktail of measures that worked (turned exp. growth into exp. decay) in the West:

- quarantine of all incoming travellers / travel rstrxns
- shut down (w/ school closures!) *with financial support for businesses and people*
- support for vulnerable groups
- TTI
6/

Extra ingredient: Acknowledging COVID airborne transmission #COVIDisAirborne
- this helped Victoria, Australia to quench the last COVID transmissions.

7/

Super Bonus/ Major Price:

Those who kept above measures in place long enough (6 - 15 weeks, depending on where they started at, and how stringent the measures were), successfully got to #COVIDzero and now they have their normalcy back.

(NZ, Australia, Atl Canada & others)

8/

We can do it in Alberta. We have all the tools and the recipe. It's not too late to start.
#COVIDzero

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